Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two
It is almost here! I know you can feel it. We are in one of my favorite weeks of the year: draft week! My wife makes fun of me because I made a special point to it on her calendar just to make sure she knew.
Aside from all of the ridiculous news stories you hear this week, we finally get to find out where all of these rookies are going. Then things get really interesting with rankings and everything else.
To give you one last little tidbit of information before the draft, I gathered 11 of DLF’s finest and asked them to join me for a three round rookie mock, the last of the pre-draft process. I’ll also be conducting a post-draft rookie mock, beginning this Saturday.
If you want to follow along with the picks, we will be using #dlfrookiemock. There will also be a write up afterwards. Let’s get back to the present though. Here were the ground rules:
- PPR scoring with standard lineups (not superflex, not TE premium, etc)
- Drafters were told to assume they had a balanced team with no glaring team needs
- No trades were allowed
If you missed the first round, go take a look. On with the second round.
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Early Second
2.01 – Kerryon Johnson, RB
2.02 – Equanimeous St. Brown, WR
2.03 – Michael Gallup, WR
2.04 – John Kelly, RB
Once we get into the second round, the running back position seems to dry up rather quickly in favor of everything else. This could definitely change after the draft, but as we saw with this mock, I expect the second round to feature a mix of everything else in most drafts.
As for the early second round in this mock, it features a mix of receiver and running back. If I’m being completely honest, I’m not really a huge fan of any of these players with the exception of Johnson. The prospect from Auburn had a productive college career and is looking to keep it going at the next level. He is a bit of an unusual running back with a taller, leaner frame than most, but that doesn’t stop him from putting his head down and trying to grind out the tough yards.
He is extremely patient when running but is sometimes too patient and the hole closes before he gets there. Johnson isn’t the most elusive rusher, but he does have a complete skill set including pass catching and pass protection. Being on the field means everything from a fantasy perspective. If he has a good landing spot, I think he could leap over some of the rushers selected in the first round.
When it comes to the other rusher in this group, I’m not a huge fan of Kelly. The combination of being undersized, struggling on inside runs, and being less athletic than most doesn’t thrill me. He had some great moments on film, but I don’t see a whole lot that can and will translate to the NFL level. I think he’ll be drafted, but it will be as a backup running back more than someone who could be a full or even part time starter. I just don’t see the fantasy upside with Kelly.
The two receivers in this grouping aren’t my favorite either. St. Brown is someone who has height and athleticism, but he lacks college production and more importantly the competitive fire you want in a receiver. He doesn’t seem to have the drive or passion for honing his craft and becoming a top player at his position.
Gallup is in some ways the opposite. I don’t think he has the athleticism and instincts as a receiver to make a huge mark at the next level. However, he was productive and does have that fire you want to see. He is also dangerous with the ball in his hands. With the right coaching, he might be able to turn into a solid complementary receiver at the NFL level. How fantasy relevant that is depends on the system.
Middle Second
2.05 – DJ Chark, WR
2.06 – DaeSean Hamilton, WR
2.07 – Josh Rosen, QB
2.08 – Dallas Goedert, TE
While the early second round didn’t do much for me, the middle of the second round is much more intriguing in my eyes. My selection of the second round was DJ Chark. I have him ranked ahead of the other receivers selected in this round, and if I can grab him in the middle of the second around in any of my leagues I’m going to be thrilled!
Chark is definitely raw, but he’s a legitimate size/speed freak with the ability to be a game changer in the NFL. His routes are incomplete, and he needs to add a bit of strength to his frame, but if I’m looking for a second round pick he’s on the top of my list.
Hamilton is another receiver I have ranked higher than most. Kyle Pollock and I clearly see eye to eye on him, so I’ll let him share his thoughts on the selection. “I feel this is the point in rookie drafts is where it begins to get a little murky, and there’s no clear cut consensus on who to take. While I could’ve gone for a receiver like Auden Tate, Tre’Quan Smith, or Anthony Miller who may have a little bit higher upside, I stuck to my guns and chose Hamilton, who I feel can make an immediate impact for whatever team he’s drafted by.
He’s one of the top, if not the top, route runner in the class which should allow him to thrive as a slot receiver at the next level, but he also has the size to play on the outside. He’s in my second tier of wide receivers (which also includes the likes of Equanimeous St. Brown, Calvin Ridley, and Christian Kirk), which would slot him somewhere between WR5 and WR9.” Personally, I have Hamilton near the back end of my top ten, and I think he’s great value here.
The 2.07 pick saw our first quarterback coming off the board. I expect this to be about the right place for that to occur in a traditional 1QB league, but I think which quarterback it is will vary greatly from draft to draft. Rosen would not have been my selection as the first quarterback, so I asked Jeff to share some of his thoughts.
“If you need quarterback youth behind a solid starter, selection of the top quarterback is a fantastic way to fill a need and increase the success ratio of your draft. Rosen represents the top quarterback on my board due to his combination of arm strength, intelligence, mobility and confidence. Sam Darnold is very close in value but without knowing drafted situation, I’ll defer to my film review with my selection of Rosen.”
Not only did the first quarterback come off the board in the middle of the second round, but the first tight end as well. I asked Michael Zingone to shed a little light on his decision to not only go tight end but also this particular tight end. Here is what he had to say:
“Goedert is a cut above the rest of this year’s tight end class. His profile stands out immediately with his incredible production, something you don’t often see out of tight ends at the college level. When watching the tape, he excels in a lot of different areas: hands, release off the time of scrimmage, fluidity in his routes, and blocking, to name a few. Goedert profiles as a more complete tight end than others in this class, much like O.J. Howard last year. He’s not quite the same caliber of prospect, but NFL teams will love his versatility and not want to take him off the field.
I believe he’ll be an NFL contributor right away, and that will certainly increase his chances of being fantasy-relevant early in his career. I would start considering Goedert on my rookie board around the 2.05 pick, so this was pretty much right in line with my valuation.”
The tight end rankings are pretty close, and situation could end up making the difference. Goedert is definitely in the running for the best of the class.
Late Second
2.09 – Mike Gesicki, TE
2.10 – Baker Mayfield, QB
2.11 – Kalen Ballage, RB
2.12 – Lamar Jackson, QB
With the first quarterback and tight end coming off the board in the middle of the round, we didn’t need to wait long for a few others. With the number of intriguing prospects at the two positions and the lack of a clear cut order among them, I think once one goes others will surely follow, just like in this mock.
Let me start with the one running back in this group, Ballage. I actually think Ballage is equally likely to play tight end in the NFL as he is to be a running back. I think his build and skill set more closely resemble an H-back than a running back. He is a great pass catcher, but in terms of a rusher he is very linear. The lack of wiggle and instincts as a rusher will definitely pose some issues if he is drafted as a running back. If he is drafted as a tight end, I’m much more interested.
Speaking of tight ends, the Combine headliner of the position came off the board at the 2.09 selection. If not for his college teammate staking a claim for being the best player in the entire draft class, Gesicki would have been the story of the combine. With supreme athleticism, he might have had the best Combine of a tight end since Vernon Davis.
On the field, he is all pass catcher, but a little raw with his routes. He is a terrible blocker, which means teams will need to be willing to commit to a two tight end system or be willing to use him in the slot if they want him to reach his full potential. His production in the NFL will be highly dependent on the system he gets drafted into.
The pair of quarterbacks makes a total of three so far in the draft, but the two expected to go with the first two selections in the NFL draft are yet to go in our mock draft. I posed the question to our own Ryan McDowell, who selected Jackson, to walk us through why this might be the case.
“Lamar Jackson is likely to be the fifth quarterback drafted in the upcoming NFL Draft, but that doesn’t impact the fact that he’s currently my rookie QB1 for dynasty leagues. I admit I might be a bit biased. Although I am not a Louisville fan, I am local to the area and have watched Jackson throughout his career and his rate of improvement has been quite impressive.
Even entering his sophomore season, there were questions as to whether he would win the starting job for the Cardinals. Not only did he do that, but he went on to win the Heisman Trophy that same year. I am excited about Jackson’s upside for fantasy leagues, thanks in large part due to his rushing ability. We’ve seen other quarterbacks with limited arms succeed as fantasy options through use of their legs. Tyrod Taylor comes to mind.
Part of my ranking for Jackson comes down to my general dynasty strategy regarding quarterback. Because they are usually so easy to find and the depth of the position is tremendous, it allows dynasty owners to take risks in rookie drafts. I’m willing to draft Jackson as early as the middle of the second round and the first quarterback off the board, so grabbing him at 2.12 in the QB3 spot was a bargain. Regarding Darnold and Allen, I see risk with those players too and don’t consider them sure things. I feel they lack the upside of Jackson, despite their likely high draft position.”
Ultimately, the details of your league and where these quarterbacks get drafted will have a lot of impact on the draft order of the five quarterbacks in fantasy leagues. Ryan definitely gives us a bit to think about with Jackson.
That’s the end of round two! The third and final round will be coming up soon.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
