Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One
It is almost here! I know you can feel it. We are in one of my favorite weeks of the year, draft week! My wife makes fun of me, because I made a special point to it on her calendar just to make sure she knew. Aside from all of the ridiculous news stories you hear this week, we finally get to find out where all of these rookies are going. Then things get really interesting with rankings and everything else.
To give you one last little tidbit of information before the draft, I gathered 11 of DLF’s finest and asked them to join me for a three-round rookie mock, the last of the pre-draft process. I’ll also be conducting a post-draft rookie mock, beginning this Saturday. If you want to follow along with the picks, we will be using #dlfrookiemock. There will also be a write up afterwards.
Let’s get back to the present though. Here were the ground rules:
- PPR scoring with standard lineups (not superflex, not TE premium, etc).
- Drafters were told to assume they had a balanced team with no glaring team needs.
- No trades were allowed.
With that in mind, let’s get on with the show!
Top Pick
1.01 – Saquon Barkley, RB
I’m yet to see a draft where Barkley wasn’t the top player off the board, and I don’t really see the NFL draft changing that. I don’t really care about your scoring system or your format. There isn’t a quarterback who is a sure-enough thing to vault over Barkley even in 2QB leagues. He should be the guy. Between his size, speed, agility, instincts, and complete skill set, it is tough to find something you don’t like. He might need a bit of adjusting to the NFL, and he will need to fix his habit of trying to do too much at times (which will cause many negative plays in the NFL), but he’s the guy.
The interesting part of the debate comes down to value. I’ve seen a few different debates about if the price of the 1.01 is actually worth it. People are starting to wonder if the huge gap in price between the 1.01 and say the 1.04 pick is worth the difference between a Nick Chubb or Sony Michel and Gurley. Because of this, I’ve seen a few people advocating for people to shoot for a few picks later and get more bang for their buck. I don’t know if I fully agree with this, but it all depends on the price of the 1.01 in your league. If you can pick up a pair of every week starters with high upside, I would need to think about it.
The Rest of the Early First
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1.02 – Derrius Guice, RB
1.03 – Nick Chubb, RB
1.04 – Sony Michel, RB
1.05 – DJ Moore, WR
I think this will be par for the course when it comes to the 2-5 picks in terms of positional balance. The draft could change the order and maybe a few of the names, but it is pretty likely we will see three running backs and one receiver in these four picks. There is some debate on which receiver is the top one in this class, as well as the exact order of the running back rankings for the second through sixth players, but the draft will help sort that out.
In terms of the running backs, the exact order will definitely be interesting. I posed the question to Bobby Koch, the writer who took Chubb at 1.03. I asked him how set he is on a running back going at 1.03 as opposed to a receiver as well as how strongly he feels about Chubb as the third rusher overall. Here is what he had to say:
“It would really depend on landing spots. For example, if DJ Moore or Courtland Sutton were to land with the Niners, I would be very interested in them at 1.03. However, I love Chubb. I know some people are concerned that he isn’t the player he was before his injury, but his Combine put a lot of that to rest for me. I don’t have a ton of separation between him and Guice and if I needed an RB would be happy to get him at 1.03.”
He also mentioned that he has a large gap between Chubb and the rest of the running back group.
As far as Moore goes, he was my selection in the first round. Depending on the landing spot for some of the running backs, he might slide as high as third overall in my rankings. I don’t see him going much lower than fifth for me. The decision at 1.05 came down to him or Ronald Jones. Moore gets the nod as the best talent in this year’s receiver class, but the decision was a close one. For more details on Moore, you can check out part four of my recent analysis of the receiver class.
Middle of the Round
1.06 – Rashaad Penny, RB
1.07 – Ronald Jones, RB
1.08 – Courtland Sutton, WR
The middle of the round continues to be dominated by the running back position, as the first eight picks in most rookie drafts will be this year. The distribution of six running backs and two receivers seems to be just about right this year. Personally, if I had to rank these three players, I would put Jones on the top, Sutton in the middle, and Penny on the back end. You definitely can’t complain too much about the order they went in though.
When it comes to Penny, I have him lower mainly due to some concerns about his role in the NFL. He is a bigger rusher, but he doesn’t have the yards after contact numbers I like to see in bigger backs. He also seems to lack the suddenness of some of the other running backs in this class. Combine those two with his lack of work in the passing game, and you have someone who might end up being a committee back instead of a full-time starter. At this point in the first round, I’m looking for a full-time player, so I have him a bit lower. However, you can’t argue with the production he had in college.
As I mentioned above, Jones was in the running when I picked Moore at the 1.05 selection. I even have him pushing Michel for the fourth running back spot. I asked DLF founder Jeff Haverlack for some more thoughts on his selection of Jones, including how highly would he slot Jones in right now.
“Outside of the top five and before knowing actual drafted situations, I look for a combination of collegiate productivity and dynamic which projects to the NFL. Prior to the NFL Combine, while I liked what Jones offers in upside, I had concerns about his size. The Combine alleviated that concern and further tape review reinforced my view that Jones has a great combination of size and speed with upside to touches. In the back half of the first round, Jones represents a fantastic risk-reward opportunity after the top four running backs are off the board. I would start considering him as early as the 1.05 right now.”
With Sutton, this feels about right for me. I have him as my seventh player overall right now and the second receiver. He is a big target, but his athleticism isn’t quite as good as some of the other bigger targets in recent years. To me, he seems like a slightly lesser and less athletic version of Dez Bryant. He’s more of a fantasy WR2 than a WR1 in my book. For more of my thoughts, check out part four of the series I mentioned earlier.
End of the First
1.09 – Calvin Ridley, WR
1.10 – Royce Freeman, RB
1.11 – James Washington, WR
1.12 – Christian Kirk, WR
Now the receivers start coming off the board. The narrative is out there that this is a running back draft, and the receivers are a few steps below what we normally see in the draft. My own work and research seem to back up this theory. However, that doesn’t mean that you should completely overlook the position. I actually really like the value of all three receivers taken in the back part of the first. While they might not be on par with any of the groups from the last few years, they have the potential to be consistent producers and maybe even every week starters for your fantasy team. That definitely isn’t something to ignore.
With phenomenal tape, lower levels of production due to the scheme, and terrible combine numbers, opinions on Ridley are all over the place. I’ve dubbed him as the ultimate film vs metric player in this year’s draft. The film tells you he is one of the best in this class, but the metric tell you to not touch him with a ten-foot pole. Ryan Finley, the person responsible for the selection, explained where he has him ranked and what he thinks about Ridley’s pro prospects.
“I was very happy to get Calvin Ridley with the ninth pick. I have him rated as my number one wide receiver in this class. In all honesty, I was more of a DJ Moore guy until I wrote the rookie profile on Ridley. Watching his tape really blew me away. He has route running ability in the same ballpark as Amari Cooper, and I think that is a highly underrated trait at times. I believe route running is one of the most pro-translatable skills. If you can do it at the college level, you can do it in the pros.
I’m not worried about his production because of that Alabama offense. When I see him on film, I see a guy that could have produced 1,200+ yards in the right offense. As far as his Combine performance, a lesser known talent by the name of Antonio Brown had a bad combine too. Experts at the time knocked Brown in very similar ways to how they are knocking Ridley today.”
Ryan is clearly a film guy! It will be interesting to see how NFL teams view Ridley.
Freeman is a player some have debated over the last few weeks. I’ve seen him as high as the fifth running back on some boards while others have him down in the ten to twelve range. I asked Levi Chappell to support his selection.
“I would take him as high as 1.08 depending on how I break the tie between him and Ridley on that day. He is my sixth running back ahead of Ronald Jones. My reasoning behind drafting him that high is simply… “Why not?” There are quite a few different things you look for in a rookie RB and he checks all the boxes. He has great size at 5’11”, 234 lbs. His size does not take away from his elusiveness, speed, or agility. That size will guarantee that he has goal-line carries for the rest of his career.
He was also highly productive with over 5,500 career rushing yards, 60 touchdown, and 80 receptions for over 800 yards. While he isn’t going to be an elite receiver, he is definitely capable. He also excels at pass protection and picking up blitzes, which coaches love to see on film. I think he compares to D’Onta Foreman from a skill perspective and Jordan Howard from a style perspective.”
Ultimately, like all of the running backs, situation will have a large impact on Freeman. I prefer the receivers at this point in the draft, but I think he’s a very solid early second round target.
With Washington and Kirk, both are value picks with the last two picks in the round. In my opinion, they are definitely better than the eighth running back or the first tight end in this year’s draft. If you are still using traditional 1QB scoring, then they definitely need to be going before the first quarterback as well.
I like Washington more than Kirk for two reasons. First, I think Washington’s game is a little bit more fantasy-friendly than Kirk’s. Kirk has a higher floor, but a much lower ceiling in my opinion. The second reason I like Washington more is I see more that he can do to better himself, while Kirk doesn’t have as much room to grow. For more thoughts on either of them, check out that link I used for Moore and Ridley.
That’s it for the first round of our mock! Check back soon for the second and third rounds.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
