A View From the 1.06: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
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1.06
The Pick: Courtland Sutton, WR SMU
Many dynasty players hoped and assumed Sutton would be part of the class of 2017, but he opted to return to school and his dynasty value suffered as a result. Obviously, there is plenty of time for him to bounce back, even before the season begins. Sutton could be the top receiver drafted in the both the NFL Draft and dynasty leagues but faces some tough competition. Landing spot once again will go a long way in determining ultimate value.
Possible Pivots:
With so much uncertainty even this close to the draft, the options will be plentiful. If DJ Moore or Calvin Ridley are the top receivers drafted in the NFL and land in a nice spot, either would likely be the pick here. Also, any of the top five running backs would be easy picks here were they to fall, with Rashaad Penny being the most likely.
Trade Value:
- Alshon Jeffery for 1.06
- Jerick McKinnon, 1.12 for Marquise Goodwin, 1.06
- Jerick McKinnon, 2.04 for 1.06
- 1.01 for Alvin Kamara, 1.06
- LeSean McCoy, 2.08 for 1.06
Super-Flex Options: Sony Michel, RB Georgia
This is one reason I love super-flex leagues! Even if you miss out on your favorite quarterback prospect, value at other positions often falls into your lap. Obviously, grabbing Georgia’s Sony Michel in the middle of the round would be an excellent value.
2.06
The Pick: Dallas Goedert, TE South Dakota State
The athletic tight end from the small school has been quickly rising up ranks, both fantasy and for the NFL Draft. There is a strong possibility he will be the first tight end drafted and could even sneak into the first round. He’s an excellent target in the middle of the second round.
Possible Pivots:
Other options outside of Goedert include another tight end, Mike Gesicki or your favorite quarterback. Baker Mayfield’s ADP is also in this range, though the backs and receivers are limited here.
Trade Value:
- Demaryius Thomas for 2.03, 2.06
- Josh Gordon for 2.06, 2019 first, 2019 fourth
- Jordan Matthews for 2.06
Super-Flex Options: Equanimeous St. Brown, WR Notre Dame
While in most leagues you’re left to target the top tight ends or quarterbacks available with this pick, in super-flex leagues, there are still very interesting wideouts. Among those will be St. Brown, the high upside Golden Domer. St. Brown might have the lowest floor of the players in this tier, but also has the highest ceiling.
3.06
The Pick: Deon Cain, WR Clemson
When he arrived at Clemson as the next top wide receiver recruit, Cain was immediately projected as a future first-round dynasty rookie pick. Unfortunately, he never stepped up to the be the focal point of the Tigers offense as Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins and others had done before him, damaging his dynasty value. The discount on Cain is far too great in the middle of the third round. Run to the podium to make this pick!
Possible Pivots:
If Cain is not your target or he’s already been drafted, tight end Mark Andrews, running back Nyheim Hines or any falling quarterback would be considerations here with the 3.06.
Trade Value:
- OJ Howard, 2.08 for Taywan Taylor, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, 2.10, 3.06
- CJ Anderson, Rishard Matthews for Lamar Miller, 3.06, 3.09
- David Njoku for Devin Funchess, 3.06
- Zay Jones for 3.06
- CJ Prosise for 3.06
Super-Flex Options: Auden Tate, WR Florida State
There have been concerns that Tate is neither fast enough nor physical enough to earn a relevant role in the NFL, while others compare him to another former Seminole, receiver Kelvin Benjamin. Tate’s best chance is to develop into a red zone threat, which would make this mid-third round pick worthwhile.
4.06
The Pick: Jordan Lasley, WR UCLA
One of Josh Rosen’s favorite targets at UCLA, Lasley is a nice athlete, but there are questions about his frame and route running. He’ll need to improve these areas, and also had some off-field concerns during his college career. I like taking a chance on Lasley here, but only when acknowledging the risks.
Possible Pivots:
If those risks are too numerous for you, consider grabbing Hayden Hurst or Jaylen Samuels instead.
Super-Flex Options: Dante Pettis, WR Washington
A major weapon on special teams, Pettis should see the field immediately. I’m excited about his big-play ability as a third receiver, but he might lack the consistency that is important in most fantasy leagues.
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- DLF’s April 1QB Trade Value Chart - April 24, 2024
- Monday Mocks: Expert 2024 Rookie Mock Draft - April 22, 2024
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Landing Spots - April 15, 2024
