Lessons for the Future, Part One: ADP Analysis
Many consider off-season and in-season happenings as separate entities. While I believe this is true to an extent, I’m also of the mindset that there are invaluable lessons we can glean moving forward, using the present as our basis of knowledge. To that extent, I’ve prepared this two-part series to analyze trends that could be of some use for evaluating the 2017 off-season market.
In the first article, I want to take a look at the shifts in value for our most treasured dynasty assets. In order to do so, I’ve compared and contrasted the August ADP (the last ADP before the season started) with the most recent November ADP, for the dynasty top 100 players. This exercise should hopefully offer some insight in determining the types of players who are most likely to see shifts in worth, along with those who stay the course. With that understanding in hand, we can hopefully learn some lessons for the upcoming off-season.
Let’s start by evaluating the ADP shifts for the top 100 players (in August), on a round by round basis. Please note that players who fell out of the top 100 in November will be listed later.
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Round One
For the most part, the first round didn’t change. As it’s largely filled with young, elite receiver assets, that’s not horribly unsurprising. Four of the top six receivers are functioning as top-five positional players so far in 2016, and even the “veterans” of the group are playing well. The notable exceptions are a pair of former Clemson Tigers, as DeAndre Hopkins (playing poorly) and Sammy Watkins (injured) have fallen a bit. Even still, the dips are relatively microscopic. All in all, this tier consisted of safe investments.
Round Two
Now we’re starting to see a bit of shifting. Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, despite functioning as a PPR WR1, has fallen nearly a round since August. Without sounding too crass, this reeks of ageism to me – in order to maintain his value, DT would likely have had to put up top-five numbers. We’ve also seen a pair of young ball carriers, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott, turn into first round prospects due to their elite play. Injured player Keenan Allen has earned the benefit of the doubt, only dropping about seven slots, while similarly injured but significantly more unproven player Kevin White has fallen three full rounds – the lesson here is proven production matters. This likely also explains why Lamar Miller and Randall Cobb haven’t dropped much despite disappointing years.
Round Three
Round three is where the age insulation effectively ends. Players such as Laquon Treadwell, Devante Parker, Michael Floyd and Tyler Lockett, despite being popular preseason breakout candidates, have tumbled due to subpar seasons. This effectively aligns with the preseason notion that there truly weren’t any sure things after around the top 20 picks or so. Much like with Thomas above, a good season hasn’t protected Jordy Nelson either. While this might not be applicable to next season, another lesson here might be that veterans are good buys for those teams looking to make a push (I know I’m not reinventing the wheel here, but it’s always nice to have the numerical proof).
Round Four
Of note, none of the players drafted in the first four rounds have yet to fall out of the November top 100. This won’t last much longer (spoiler alert!), but if nothing else it goes to show that we dynasty owners can be stubborn from time to time. Moving on.
We’re starting to see a lot more fallers, which makes sense. Many of the players at this point represented unproven players, and in the “what have you done for me lately” world of fantasy, even dynasty footballers aren’t immune. Younger players such as Josh Doctson, John Brown, Golden Tate, Doug Martin, Mark Ingram, Dorial Green-Beckham and Eddie Lacy have all seen drastic reductions in value due to injury and ineffectiveness. Meanwhile, veterans like Doug Baldwin, despite functioning as a high-end PPR WR2, are struggling to climb the ranks. I’d love to be able to make sense of this, but truth be told I’m at a loss!
Round Five
You might’ve noticed there are only nine players listed above. What that means is that the trends permeating the past couple of rounds have spiked, leading to a trio of players falling out of the top 100 altogether (more on that below). Otherwise, it’s more of the same – if you’ve been having a bad season, or got hurt, you’ve fallen. The only outlier is Saints receiver Michael Thomas, who’s risen due to a fine rookie season.
Round Six
Now we’re finally starting to see who’s occupying the spots of those who have fallen. Players who were undervalued due to injury (Tyler Eifert), age (Emmanuel Sanders, Greg Olsen) or for whatever other reason (Marvin Jones, Stefon Diggs) are reclaiming their respective values. Otherwise, it’s more of the same – if owners were on the fence about you, you’ve lost value. If you’re old and underperformed, you lost value.
Round Seven
There’s very little rhyme or reason to this round. While it seems like most of the players have gained value, once again it’s easy to notice that a bunch of players are missing. Regardless, the lesson here seems to be that players who were undervalued, for whatever reason, have gained value. I wish I could pinpoint a lesson here, but there’s very little similarity amongst the players listed above. With that said, if you have players who appear to be “second bananas” on their offenses, like Michael Crabtree or Willie Snead, buy them up if you believe in them.
The Rest
Players who were severely undervalued have gained value, a la Will Fuller (an NFL first round pick), Eric Ebron (a new target vacuum in Detroit) and Jay Ajayi (one Arian Foster injury, and apparently retirement, away from fantasy glory), have broken through. Otherwise the turnover is rampant once again.
The Dearly Departed
This ranges from the old and injured (Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Dion Lewis), to the young and underperforming (Devin Funchess, Breshad Perriman, Matt Jones, Leonte Carroo, Phillip Dorsett and Tavon Austin) and everything in between. Now some of these players didn’t have very far to fall, but it’s nonetheless notable that there are a whopping twenty players, or 20%, who fell out of the August top 100. If nothing else this underscores just how fragile dynasty value can be.
The New Blood
Obviously, if some players fall out, there must be those to take their places. And within these ranks I believe there are some discernible trends to follow, at least when it comes to your mid-to-late round picks:
- Look for “backups” in volatile situations: While I’m not sure I believe in handcuffing in a traditional sense, buying skilled players in unsettled positional groups (Kansas City/Denver/Chicago/Atlanta/Seattle/Baltimore backfields, Cleveland/San Diego/Washington receiving corps) can pay dividends
- Age is just a number: If you have a bell cow running back in a good situation, a la DeMarco Murray, don’t shy away
- Perception is reality: People love when “their guys” pan out. As such it’s not overly surprising to see guys like Christine Michael, Davante Adams, Quincy Enunwa and Terrelle Pryor gain a ton of value
- The exception to the rule: Don’t make a habit out of betting on the outliers, but if you do, it helps when the player is transcendent. No one expected Jimmy Graham to come back as he did, but now he’s working his way back towards the dynasty elite
Hopefully the exercise above was a good glimpse into the ebbs and flows of dynasty value. In part two of these Lessons for the Future, I’ll attempt to equate dynasty value to fantasy value. Confused? Read on tomorrow…
Find me on Twitter @EDH_27
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