Dynasty Diaries: Fighting Back
Welcome to dynasty diaries. In this series, I will give you an inside look at all of my teams, their history and my plans for the future. I’d like to provide some insight into struggles I’ve faced, and reveal weekly thoughts and feelings on anything and everything football. Join me as I succeed or crash and burn. For more information on the leagues, check out the introduction. If there is anything more you’d like to see or any questions you have, please let me know in the comments section.
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When was the last time you invested endless passion and emotion into something you really wanted to work, only to see it fall apart? When you start anything meaningful, you are full of excitement. You’re excited to grow, to learn and to build. You set out with dreams, plans and visions. I can’t ignore the fact it’s been a hugely difficult couple of weeks for me. But sometimes, things just don’t work out.
As you can likely tell, I’m not talking about a dynasty team.
But after a week one with some devastating blows, followed by a week two injury report longer than my arm, and now more bad news for our star players (Dez Bryant and Sammy Watkins), there will be dynasty owners who have spent time and money passionately building something, only to watch it crash and burn in just a few weeks.
How did you feel as a Keenan Allen owner when he went down in week one? How about after your prize running back asset Ameer Abdullah suffered a foot injury, and your favorite late round starting quarterback Jay Cutler is missing an extended period of time?
Sometimes we have this tendency to blame ourselves, but there’s only one thing to do right now. Move forward. Whether or not the frustration and disappointment is there, you still know what you need to do – re-evaluate, recover and fight back.
Think of how tough it must be for the players themselves. How is Allen dealing with the pain? Read his heartfelt message to the fans and you’ll know what to do in tough times.
In fact, I’d argue that only dynasty owners can find a silver lining for these injuries. This is a unique selling point of dynasty fantasy football – while redraft owners with multiple injuries have likely lost all hope and chance of success, dynasty owners can simply re-evaluate and move forward with a new plan. Do you still have a team strong enough to compete? Then make calculated, 2016-oriented moves to keep those Championship chances. Do you feel as though you no longer have a chance this year? Then maybe it’s a chance to offload some older players and invest in your future. If you’re not sure, I would advise being patient.
Long term patience is key, but that’s made up of a ton of decisions every single week. With every move, think: how would my future self feel about this? With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking about my dynasty teams right now.
The Leagues
International Dynasty League (2-1)
Bench performances are a good thing
How close is this team to 3-0? In week one, I lost 128.05-128.35. Sometimes, that’s just how it goes down. I feel I made the right decisions, but big bench performances at this point in the season are a good thing. We know that if you play head-to-head, week-to-week variation in your points scored and who you face are going to be huge factors in your season-long record, but ultimately we should be working towards points. In a deep dynasty roster, I love seeing my bench players put up big performances. Obviously, it stings a bit when it costs you a victory, but how can you build a strong dynasty team? With value.
If your fourth or fifth running backs are putting up numbers, maybe there’s a chance to move one for another young receiver to add to your group. If your receiver depth is strong, you have options to start as we hit bye weeks and injuries start to pile up.
The idea of ‘Zero RB’ was a hot topic over the summer. Personally, I’m a believer that any strategy works if you pick the right players. Most young receivers hold their value, while many running backs rely on opportunity – so naturally that lends to valuing receivers more. But I wouldn’t take a receiver just for the sake of it, and I wouldn’t ignore a talented running back either.
See this tweet by Shawn Siegele, author of ‘Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value-based Drafting’:
Zero RB is an idea, and I think a good idea, but it’s not an appeal for everyone to draft the same way. Draft the players you love. I do.
— Shawn Siegele (@FF_Contrarian) August 27, 2016
As the Zero RB debate was heating up, I began to realise that I’d built a team that way without a conscious effort – buying players at value. My highest profile back is Carlos Hyde, and the rest are Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman, Ryan Mathews and Arian Foster. Instead of focusing on backs, I built the team around receivers, but guess what? Those receivers include Bryant, Watkins and Josh Gordon. Suddenly, the effort I put in to fill the roster with a ton of backs who could potentially hit will be the most crucial part of my success.
The reminder here is that the players are the drivers of your team, not the positions. Fill your squads with the most talented players with great opportunities, regardless of where they play. Everyone will need to utilize their bench, so make sure yours is strong. If you end up with ten backs compared to six receivers, so be it. The other way around? Great. Ultimately, focus on the players, not the positions.
A ‘buy low’ paying off feels great, so don’t hesitate trading for injured players
This is a 16-team league, and I treat draft picks very differently from a standard 12-team league. I’m much more likely to move seconds and thirds, and I don’t hold on too tight to first rounders if I’m having a good season. After week ten of last season, Russell Wilson was coming off a 17 point performance (he’d only gone over 20 in two of the last nine) whereas Andrew Luck had been shut down for the year. I saw this as an opportunity to ‘buy low’. Luck was a first round startup pick last year, and I still believe he will return to his 40-touchdown ways. The price? Russell Wilson and a first round pick. At this point, I was 9-1 knowing that pick will be late. I had Eli Manning and Marcus Mariota available to take me into the playoffs.
What happened next?
Wilson rattled off performances of 28, 37, 36, 35 and 29 fantasy points, with a touchdown to interception ratio of 19-0.
Obviously, I felt like I’d made the wrong choice. But I knew that the move was a long term one towards building the ultimate team, not one that would pay off in the short term anyway. It certainly hurt.
Where are we now? Luck began the season with a dominant 39 point performance but has followed it up with two mediocre performances, while Wilson has averaged just under 15 points and struggled even before his knee injury. But ultimately, the moment Luck was back on the field and playing I was reminded why I invested. He is a superstar, and even though I still value Wilson highly, I believe Luck will be a bigger difference-maker over the course of his fantasy career.
Who is the injured player you will want to own the most when they return to form? Go ahead and make a move now.
Patience. Trust the process
The most enjoyable league to be in has also been the most chaotic. This is a superflex league, and I was heading into the season with only Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater and Carson Wentz at quarterback. After the injury to Bridgewater, I naturally went into panic mode. I managed to get Shaun Hill on the waiver wire (thankfully only $8 of $1000), but went on a full quarterback hunt. Move a future first and more for Matthew Stafford or Andy Dalton? I could do, because I need a quarterback. I even considered a deal involving moving a then-valuable Duke Johnson and getting Blaine Gabbert back. Imagine that. Trading for players I didn’t actually want or believe in was the state of things.
But for every potential deal, I simply considered how I’d feel about this next year. Sure, it could work out and help me this year. But what if it doesn’t? Ultimately, I decided that I would not overpay for any quarterback. Be patient and trust the process of building a roster of great players. Do not compromise on that. I had a major stroke of luck with the Sam Bradford trade. Having prepared to roll into the season with one quarterback, I had a gift given to me in rookie starter Wentz.
Building a team filled with players who I love without sacrificing the future put me as the highest scorer of 24 after two weeks, and the fourth top scorer after three. It’s a long season, but I’m happy I remained patient and didn’t make any panic moves.
This game will surprise you
This team is supposed to be a mess. It isn’t filled with superstars, and it doesn’t hold a lot of value, but somehow I’ve managed to accumulate two wins and started this week strongly with AJ Green’s Thursday night performance.
All the #2QBProblems are on show – I picked up both Brian Hoyer and Jacoby Brissett knowing one will be a QB2 behind Sam Bradford, but Carson Wentz has re-ignited this team. What do I do next? While I will enjoy any short term success, I’m well aware that this team needs a revamp in order to compete every year. I will continue to look to the future with all moves. With that in mind, I blew $514 of my $1000 budget on Terrelle Pryor (before the Gordon news). I’m a believer in his dynamic talent, and he is certainly an ascending dynasty asset.
Whatever you think you know, you’ll be surprised every week. Being open to that and remaining flexible, adaptable and opportunistic is key to having success in this game (and having fun).
Dear Diary – Random Ramblings
1. Josh Gordon entering rehab should be another reminder that players are people too, and they can suffer with the same struggles as you and I. No one can pretend to know what his upbringing was like, or what demons he suffers with, or how much he values playing football. But it’s important for anyone to seek help. Whether it’s a professional footballer player or an office worker, health comes before work.
2. The new ‘Player or Pick‘ series by Ryan McDowell is fantastic. But it did get me thinking about the value of draft picks in themselves. If I only have one pick next year, I likely deem it more valuable than if I have more than one. How many times do you actually have multiple firsts to move? If I had multiple, I’d likely weigh up the options and move one for Stefon Diggs, knowing I am not going all in. But when you don’t know at this point where that pick will be, it’s a lot harder to let go of. Also, the potential for a top half pick means the potential to move that pick to an owner who falls in love with a rookie. That’s tempting. The series just brings more to light that every single deal should be looked at individually.
3. I dabble in daily fantasy football. I have a number of redraft leagues that keep me on my toes. Having the variety, in my opinion, is a very healthy thing. Have I realized through playing redraft fantasy football that I’m too youth and potential-heavy in one-year drafts? 100%. Playing dynasty football gives us an edge when it comes to information and knowledge on younger players. However, playing these other formats are a constant reminder that while dynasty teams are built over a long time, leagues are won in one season.
4. I’ll be heading to Wembley today to see the London Jaguars host Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. There have been so many outstanding games in the International Series, but seeing the players live can’t be matched. I’ll be sure to report back with detailed feedback in the next edition, but in the meantime follow me on Twitter for some pictures and updates.
Until next time.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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