The Player or the Pick?

Ryan McDowell Posted On September 29, 2016

When one of the OGs of Dynasty League Football speaks, I listen! After a recent trade/value Twitter poll created by Ken fell dead even, it sparked a conversation between a group of DLF writers. While the specific player and pick in question (Giovani Bernard and a mid-first round rookie pick) fell between the cracks, the debate that arose from the question gave Ken a bright idea…this would make an excellent weekly series! I agreed and here we are.

Each week, I’ll choose three players, try to pinpoint their value in relation to 2017 dynasty rookie picks and let my Twitter followers do the rest. I’ll post each question as a Twitter poll with a goal of at least 500 votes to provide a relevant sample size.

This exercise should not only provide insight about how the specific players are being valued, but also the players’ positions as a whole, along with the daunted incoming rookie class of 2017.

Here’s the first ‘The Player or the Pick?’:

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Which would you prefer in a dynasty league?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 27, 2016

It didn’t take long for me to be completely shocked by the results of one of these polls as Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs easily lost to the early rookie pick. While I understand the appeal that goes along with having a top draft pick, especially with the likes of Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook and others presumably entering the league next season, but Diggs has already shown that he can perform at a high level in the NFL.

As a late round draft pick a year ago, Diggs got a late start to the season and still finished as the WR45 and the Vikings best option in the passing game. Typically, being a 22-year-old wideout that has already shown he can be a team’s best receiver is all it takes for a player’s dynasty value to go through the roof, but that wasn’t the case with Diggs. Perhaps that has to do with the addition of rookie Laquon Treadwell or the lack of confidence the fantasy community had in quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Whatever the reason, Diggs value and ADP remained very reasonable in the sixth to eighth round range.

Now, three games into the 2016 season, Diggs is doing it again, despite the change at quarterback and the addition of Treadwell, which is having no impact. Through three games, Diggs sits at WR8 and even with the expected debut of Treadwell in the near future, he’s the clear top option in the Minnesota offense, especially with the loss of running back Adrian Peterson. Based on what we’ve seen, Diggs has been a fast riser in my personal dynasty rankings as well, moving to the WR14 spot. We’ll be starting our in-season dynasty mock drafts soon, which will provide us all with another tool to measure the changing value of players. In those mocks, I would not be at all surprised if Diggs is selected in the third, or even late second round. Based on all of this, it is difficult to imagine preferring any pick over him. The only argument I can see if that a team owning a projected early pick could be far away from contending and moving the draft capital for any one player may not be beneficial.

Here’s the next poll:

Which would you prefer in a dynasty league?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 27, 2016

After three years of disappointment, it seems that Seattle running back Christine Michael is finally delivering on all of his promise. Michael, earning the start with Thomas Rawls out for multiple weeks, played the best game of his career, rushing for over 100 yards for the second time in his career and scored two quick touchdowns to put the Seahawks in position to cruise to a win. Though many who gave up on him too soon are surprised, ‘The Awakening’ is real.

Rawls is set to miss multiple weeks, which should allow Michael to put a stranglehold on the starting job for the remainder of the season. When Rawls returns, I expect him to be involved, but he certainly won’t be handed the starting job.

Despite all of this good news for Michael and those dynasty players who stuck with him over the past three seasons (or grabbed him off the waiver wire after others gave up the dream) the results of this poll were not close. Nearly 70% of the almost 1,000 respondents sided with the first round pick. This could have something to do with the most anticipated crop of running backs in years or potentially the lack of faith in running backs in general. Or maybe this is just a case of dynasty not being quite ready to accept Michael as a weekly fantasy starter.

Finally:

Which would you prefer in a dynasty league?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 28, 2016

The closest of the three polls was still rather one-sided as the people have voted and opted for the mid-round rookie pick over the surprising current rookie wide receiver Will Fuller. The Texans made Fuller, formerly of Notre Dame, the second wideout drafted in the 2016 NFL Draft, behind only Corey Coleman but ahead of Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell. Fuller has quickly shown why Houston had such faith in him as he has become the deep threat that offense sorely needed to balance out the defensive coverage of superstar DeAndre Hopkins. Fuller became just the second wide receiver ever to have back to back 100 yard games to open his career, joining DeSean Jackson, before putting up a dud last week. With Fuller acting as the deep threat, he is more likely to disappoint his owners in a given week if he doesn’t haul in a long catch, but he’s also explosive enough to make the big play that the Texans, and his fantasy owners, are counting on. Through three games, Fuller is currently the WR28, making him a reasonable weekly option as a fantasy team’s third starter at the position.

Again, I am surprised not only be the winner of this poll, but by the rather wide margin. While dynasty owners are hoping to somehow get their hands on an early 2017 draft pick to land the aforementioned Fournette, Chubb or Cook, there are many ways the middle of the round could turn out. After those three running backs, many view a trio of wide receivers, Mike Williams, Corey Davis and Juju Smith-Schuster, as next in line. With this question narrowing the draft pick to the 1.05-1.08, the odds of landing one of these receivers should be good. That has to be the thinking of the 58% preferring the unknown of the rookie pick.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.