Rookie SWOT: Jared Goff

Brian Malone Posted On May 7, 2016

Editor’s Note: As our coverage of the 2016 NFL Draft and its impact on fantasy football continues, we bring you our 2016 Rookie SWOT series. These articles will feature video highlights, combine reviews, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, short-term expectations, long-term expectations and rookie draft advice for over 30 of the best dynasty league prospects from this year’s draft. We’ll follow that up with team-by-team draft reviews because, you know, that’s kind of what we live for.

Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by staying up on all these articles, checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and mock draft rooms. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.

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Name: Jared Goff

Position: Quarterback

Pro team: Los Angeles Rams

College team: California Golden Bears

Draft Status: Round One, Pick #1 overall

Video Highlights

[youtube id=”cEGafktM5r4″ align=”center” maxwidth=”1000″]

Combine Review

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 215 pounds

Hands: 9”

Arm Length: 32.75”

40-Yard Dash: 4.82 seconds

20-Yard Shuttle: 4.47 seconds

Vertical: 27”

Broad: 110”

Strengths

Goff is the most well-rounded and developed quarterback in the 2016 class. He can maneuver within the pocket, and he’s extremely accurate when he gets to set his feet. That accuracy extends to every area of the field. For a prospect, he reads defenses and progresses through his reads well. His arm strength is good, not outstanding. He throws with anticipation.

Weaknesses

Though he can maneuver within the pocket, Goff is not a mobile quarterback. Don’t expect any highlight scrambles. Indeed, Goff’s biggest weakness as a passer is throwing on the move. He also tends to throw off his back foot in the face of pressure. Finally, as a decision maker, he’s on the border of aggressive and reckless. An interception-laden rookie season is a very real concern as Goff adjusts to the NFL game.

Opportunities

Goff is the man in Los Angeles. He’ll be playing behind 2015’s best offensive line in terms of pass protection, according to Football Outsiders. His receivers are a who’s who of fantasy heartbreakers. Former rookie 1.01 Tavon Austin and #TeamBigWR darling Brian Quick lead the passing attack. History’s worst combine snub, Mike Thomas, and fellow rookies Pharoh Cooper and Tyler Higbee (tight end) also figure to be factors in the passing game.

Threats

Jeff Fisher.

I kid, I kid. But the Rams are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league, and that shouldn’t change anytime soon. Here’s a chart of each team’s game script (basically how much they led/trailed throughout the game) and pass percentage from all 2015 games. Any point below the trend line indicates a run-heavy approach, accounting for the team’s game script.

This confirms what we already knew: Jeff Fisher likes to run the ball. By my calculations, the Rams were the third most run-heavy team in 2015 after accounting for game script. If Goff is going to be fantasy relevant, he’ll have to be efficient.

Short-term Expectations

Goff projects as a low-end QB2 for the immediate future. The Rams had the worst fantasy production in the league from the quarterback position in 2015. And while Goff may be an upgrade at the position, he won’t have the opportunity to rack up counting stats. If you’re rostering any Rams pass catchers (or Todd Gurley), Goff in Los Angeles.

Long-term Expectations

Goff has the makings of a long-term, above-average NFL starter. He’ll be a safe guy to have as your second quarterback, and if he lands in the right offense (or the right offense lands on him), he can be a QB1.

Rookie Draft Advice

Goff is being drafted, on average, in the middle of the second round in 1QB rookie drafts and the middle of the first round in 2QB drafts. He’s a fine selection in either format, though I’d prefer to wait and take a player — even another quarterback — with more immediate upside in a 1QB rookie draft. In a 2QB league, where stability and longevity are more important, I’m comfortable with Goff anywhere from 1.02 onward.

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