The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- I own the 33rd overall pick in our dynasty rookie draft. To say I’m thin at receiver is an understatement as I’m still counting on Aaron Dobson to turn it around. Are there receivers who really stand out here given the group of Justin Hardy, DeAndre Smelter, Tre McBride, Stefon Diggs and Ty Montgomery? – Chris in OH
I think this is a two-man race between Falcons rookie Justin Hardy and 49ers freshman DeAndre Smelter. I like the triumvirate of Tre McBride, Stefon Diggs and Ty Montgomery well enough, but each carry with them red flags – the first two were selected in the late rounds of the draft, while the latter resides in what might be the most crowded receiver depth chart in the league. So given who’s left, let’s make the case for each.
Hardy has both situation and prior production on his side, and could very well function as Atlanta’s WR3 in 2015. The biggest red flags, however, reside with his physical profile – he’s small (5’10, 192 pounds) and not overly fast, and while he offers top-shelf agility I have to wonder if he’ll amount to more than a slot receiver in the pros. There’s certainly nothing wrong with that, but it’s fair to wonder if his upside will remain capped.
Smelter, on the other hand, has none of those concerns – he’s big and fast, profiling very similar to the Georgia Tech receivers before him. This, of course, renders him as a pure upside play, as he has very little in the way of college production to help us discern his future. So while he offers prototype “WR1” measureables, it’s possible he’s more Stephen Hill than Calvin Johnson.
So ultimately you have to answer a simple question – what amount of risk are you comfortable with? If you’re more conservative, go with Hardy. If you’d rather shoot for the moon, take Smelter. But ultimately, at pick #33 I think it’s hard to go wrong with either.
- We just completed our first dynasty startup draft. Most of us are not new to fantasy but new to dynasty. I have been listening to your podcasts relentlessly for advice and ideas. I went receiver-crazy and landed Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins and Allen Robinson in the first four rounds. My running backs are Andre Ellington, CJ Spiller, Duke Johnson, David Cobb, LeGarrette Blount, Reggie Bush and Mike Davis. A ‘Canes fan in our league is trying to get Johnson from me, so what is a fair deal that I could make with him? He has Breshad Perriman, David Johnson, Shane Vereen, DeVante Parker and his draft picks that I’m interested in. – Jason in GA
[inlinead]If he’s a Miami Hurricanes fan and followed Duke Johnson throughout his collegiate career, there’s a chance you could sell for a little more than market value. As such I’d target Dolphins rookie DeVante Parker, a player who was not only selected early in the NFL Draft, but could actually come a little more cheaply at the current moment in time due to his recent foot injury. I’d try to flip Johnson and a future second round pick for Parker, or perhaps Johnson and a first for Parker and a second. You’d therefore be capitalizing on this confluence of events, making your roster that much better in the process.
- My team is stacked and I have four first rounders this year at 1.01, 1.03, 1.05 and 1.12. I only have Matt Stafford at quarterback and I would like to upgrade to Andrew Luck. The current offer we are discussing is Stafford, Carlos Hyde, Gio Bernard, Davante Adams and pick 1.03 for Luck. Would you consider sweetening this deal, or say that’s my final offer? Other owners want to (understandably) make me overpay due to my record and roster. – Eric in DC
If that’s the going price for Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, I’d pass. I understand your league-mates are trying to charge you a fortune to improve your team, given your roster, but this is beyond exorbitant – given the collection of players you’re parting with, the trade is effectively Matt Stafford plus four first round picks for Luck. Don’t get me wrong, Luck is definitively my dynasty QB1, but no one player is worth that type of haul. I’d much rather talk to the owners of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or Matt Ryan and seek a more reasonable deal – even if your competition doesn’t want to make you better, one of them will still want to improve their own roster.
- I have picks 1.04, 2.04, 2.0, and 2.10 this year. This is technically a second draft to augment the startup with a rookie specific draft. We drafted early for veterans and I went with volume and upside for running backs late in the draft with quality at receiver early, given how the draft fell to me. With pick 1.04 and three picks in round two, what’s the best draft strategy: BPA or team needs at RB? – Matt in MD
For me rookie drafts are all about adopting a BPA attitude. The fact remains that rookies generally represent dart-throw type of picks, and as such it makes more sense to simply look at the best guys available. For you, there’s a good chance both Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon will be gone, in which case it doesn’t make sense to reach on the next available ball carrier. If Gordon is there I’d have no issue taking him, but I’d be using his position as more of a tiebreaker than anything else. In general it’s prudent to take the best guy left.
- My quarterbacks are Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota. I’m in an 8-team league, so mid-tier guys are less valuable. Should I trade any of my quarterbacks for picks next year in hopes of landing a 2016 stud? Should I take advantage of the hype on these mid-tier guys for the opportunity to draft unknown talents who could eventually turn into QB1s? – Chris in CO
While I can understand the desire to upgrade the position, I’ll propose a few counterarguments here. First and foremost, prior to last season Carolina signal caller Cam Newton had functioned as a top-five signal caller for three years running – don’t get me wrong, I understand the hesitance of relying on a guy who scores a large percentage of points from his legs, but I see no reason he can’t be utilized as an every-week starter. Continuing, aside from Newton you have three more starter, meaning you should be able to stream the position on a weekly basis depending on matchups. No, it’s unlikely any of Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota finishes as a top-eight play this year, but between them there’s a good shot you can supplement the weeks Newton has a bad matchup fairly easily. Finally, there are no guarantees on the 2016 guys – after all, it wasn’t that long ago Bridgewater was considered the consensus 1.01, and then he slid to the very end of the first round in 2014. What we know now just might not come to fruition at this point next year – as such, I think you’re fine with who you have.
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