Price Check: Week Eight

Brian Malone Posted On October 30, 2015

melvin

No need for much introduction here. You want to know how players are being valued in dynasty leagues. I scoured Twitter, the DLF forums, and other sources to find out. Let’s do this.

(With one noted exception, the trades discussed are completed dynasty trades — to the best of my knowledge).

Melvin Gordon

After Nick Whalen and George Kritikos talked up Gordon on the Filmetrx Podcast, I was intrigued. Apparently others were too, as Gordon was a frequent mover this week.

Trade 1

Jeremy Hill + Arian Foster + 2016 first (late)

for

Gordon + Eric Decker + Danny Woodhead

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Trade 2 (rejected offer)

Gordon

for

Martavis Bryant

Trade 3

Gordon + Pierre Garcon + 2016 fourth

for

Woodhead + Kelvin Benjamin

Summary: Despite Gordon’s lackluster fantasy production, dynasty managers are still paying respectable prices for him. I was the Gordon buyer in Trade 1. I tried to acquire him for Hill alone, but the other owner balked. The other pieces sealed the deal. Taken together, these deals put Gordon’s price in the range of a 1.03-1.06 rookie pick. I am a buyer at the low end of that price range.

Doug Martin

In week 7, Martin picked up where he left off before the bye. That gave contending teams the confidence to acquire him at prices he hasn’t seen in over a year.

Trade 1

Martin + Charles Sims

for

Devin Funchess + Terrell Pryor + 2016 first + 2016 second

Trade 2

Martin + 2016 4th (early)

for

Cameron Artis-Payne + 2016 first (late)

Trade 3

Martin + 2016 first (late) + 2016 second + 2017 second + 2018 first

for

Dez Bryant + Frank Gore

Trade 4

Martin + Donte Moncrief + Willie Snead

for

Odell Beckham Jr.

[inlinead]Summary: The first two deals put Martin’s value in the range of a late-first or early-second round rookie pick. The third and fourth deals seem like massive wins for the managers trading away Martin. If you’re selling Martin, aim high, but expect to settle for a late 2016 first round pick.

Dorial Green-Beckham

2016 first + 2016 second + 2016 second

for

Green-Beckham

Summary: This is a nice return for a player who was likely a late first round pick in 2015 and hasn’t put up meaningful production. But the buzz is building around Green-Beckham, and (perhaps more importantly), there are no whispers of any off-field troubles. As you’ll see below, this seems to be the going rate for Green-Beckham, and it’s a reasonable price to pay for a player with his risk-upside profile.

Martavis Bryant

After a four-game suspension, Bryant has been gangbusters in his first two games of 2015. With Ben Roethlisberger shelved, Bryant has been the alpha dog in the Steelers’ passing game. Recent trades suggest dynasty managers are worried about Antonio Brown reclaiming that role upon Roethlisberger’s return.

Trade 1

Bryant + Green-Beckham

for

Allen Robinson

Trade 2

Bryant + Green-Beckham + 2016 third + 2016 third

for

Thomas Rawls + 2016 first (early-mid) + 2016 first(early-mid)+ 2016 first (late)

Summary: Taken together with the Bryant-Melvin Gordon trade above, these deals suggest managers value Bryant as a mid-to-low-end dynasty WR2. But if he can avoid off field issues and keep up anything close to his current production, that valuation is way too low. I plan to send some offers to buy Bryant before this article gets published! [Update: that didn’t work – rejections aplenty.]

Quarterback Trades

Trade 1

Drew Brees

for

Colin Kaepernick + 2016 second (late)

Trade 2

Brees + 2016 second (late)

for

Philip Rivers

Trade 3

Tom Brady

for

Green-Beckham + 2016 second

Summary: Quarterback trades are usually rare, but with injuries and under performance rampant, contending dynasty managers have been forced to pay up for decent production. These trades suggest that managers value Brees as a borderline dynasty QB1, which makes him worth about a mid-second round rookie pick. With a favorable playoff schedule (Tampa Bay, Detroit, Jacksonville in weeks 14-16), Brees is a solid buy for contenders at that price. Kaepernick isn’t worth much at all. Rivers is worth perhaps an early second, and Brady is worth at least a 2016 first.

Running Backs Fetching First Round Picks

Rather than list each deal separately, here’s a list of some running backs who have each been traded for one 2016 first round pick (give or take) this week:

Whew. That’s a pretty broad spectrum of running backs. I listed them in rough order of preference, from top to bottom. I would not give anything close to a first round pick for West. The others are pretty closely bunched, and I wouldn’t argue with someone who wanted to flip that list on its head. The lesson here is to cast a wide net if you’re trying to acquire a running back for the stretch run.

Danny Woodhead

Aside from the two trades above, I couldn’t find any deals involving Woodhead. But those trades suggest his price is in the range of a mid-to-late second round rookie pick. That’s too low. I’d rather give an early-to-mid second round pick for Woodhead than a first for any of the guys listed above. He’s the RB10 in PPR points-per-game in 2015 (and two of the guys above him are out for the season). This isn’t a fluke: since joining San Diego, he’s a PPR RB1 on a points-per-game basis. And while he’s older than any of the guys listed above, he’s primarily a receiving back, so I expect him to have Sprolesian longevity. If the Woodhead owner in your league is out of contention, he would be my first running back trade target.

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