Searching for Consistent Greatness: Running Backs
Running backs win Championships.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean investing heavily at the position is good for your dynasty team. If sustained success and the ability to build a team that competes year-after-year is the goal, employing an extreme win-now strategy can be counterproductive. In fact, considering the shortness of running back’s careers, the higher likelihood of injury and the unpredictability of who will receive carries in most backfields; a safe approach is to build around positions that will last. While we are in a golden age for dynasty receivers, the number of ‘elite’ young backs is slim-to-none.
Despite the lack of valuable long-term assets, owning the top scorers at the position each year is still as important as ever to winning your league. The key is identifying who the right players to pick or acquire are (easier said than done, I know) and taking advantage when the time is right. As Ryan McDowell said in his latest version of the ‘Dynasty Trading Post, “The off-season is the ideal window in which to buy players like [Calvin] Johnson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and other veterans at a greatly discounted cost”. Here we take a look at which running backs have been producing consistent weekly numbers, and attempt to identify who may be good investments for 2015.
Note: If you love running backs as much as I do, then be sure to check out Eric Hardter’s superb 2015 DLF Running Back Report.
The Method
I repeated the process used in part one: starting by looking at the points required to be a RB1 (top 12) and a RB2 (top 24) in every game week over the last three years to establish baselines:
- RB1: 16.9
- RB2: 11.3
I then took the DLF ADP data for running backs and tallied every time each player scored as a RB1 and RB2. After eliminating incoming draftees and seven players who haven’t yet registered a qualifying game (Carlos Hyde, Christine Michael, Ka’Deem Carey, James White, Travaris Cadet and Ryan Williams), I had a list of 49.
It is important to recognize the nature of the position makes it difficult to compare and contrast between any two players. One running back may have five touches while another has 25, but they both qualify for a ‘game played.’ It also applies to receivers and tight ends, which is why it is important to look at the numbers in this series with that knowledge. For example, we wouldn’t expect a ‘workhorse’ type back to have similar percentages to someone who features predominantly in the passing game or a third down role. For this reason, I did (subjectively) split the data into different groups. The majority of this piece looks at players who I would consider fantasy starters. After that, there is a section on 2014 rookies and players who haven’t been clear-cut starters. However, the full data set will be included at the end for your own perusal.
Notes:
- Data was taken from FFToday.com
- PPR scoring
- Playoff games were not included
Key:
- G – Total games possible to have played in
- GP – Number of games played
- RB1/2 – Number of games with 11.3+ points
- RB1 – Number of games with 16.9+ points
- RB2 – Number of games with between 11.3 and 16.8 points
- % – Percentage of games placing in each category
The numbers to focus on when looking at each list are highlighted (green = good, red = bad).
Highest % of Weeks as RB1/2
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- Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray are percentage matches, and the only two to have missed the top 24 less than 10% of the time
- Bell was a winner in last year’s data, and fully deserves his ADP. In 2014, his lowest score all season was 14.2
- Arian Foster sits near the top of this list despite an injury-plagued 2013 and missing three games in 2014. Last year, he scored double digits in all 13 games he played in, and finished as the RB6 on the year (every other back in the top ten played in 15 games or more)
- Knowshon Moreno is on the list predominantly because of his time in Denver. However, he is 27 and if given another shot, could he be a contributor?
- A surprising inclusion is Ahmad Bradshaw. He scored double digit points in every game in 2014 until he got hurt in Week 11. With such bad injury luck, I’m not sure another team puts too much faith in him
- Eight of the top 12 are 27 years old or over. When will they start to decline?
Lowest % of Weeks as RB1/2
- Understandably, a few of the names on this list are players who have only recently come in to a significant starting role (Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller and Mark Ingram). Miller seems like he has a clear path to a number one role in 2015, but do the Dolphins add someone in this strong draft? I expect the Ravens will which may cap Forsett and CJ Spiller may steal touches from Ingram. We may see more of these low percentages
- Super fun coincidental finding: Detroit Lions’ timeshare backs Joique Bell and Reggie Bush both had top 24 percentages of 49%. However, their roles will change now Bush is in San Francisco.
- The one major anomaly on this list is CJ Anderson’s RB1%, and it’s pretty unique. More on that later
Highest % of Weeks as RB1
- The seven players from Adrian Peterson to Marshawn Lynch have all provided more chance of being in the top 12 than finishing out of it: the cream of the fantasy upside crop
- Murray kicked off 2014 with eight straight games of over 20 points. His 197.3 points in that period were only ten behind the RB12 for the whole year (LeSean McCoy, 207.4). However, his fantasy future coming off a season with such volume is up for debate.
- Matt Forte, along with the high RB1%, has also provided a good floor; particularly in 2014 when he only went under 11.1 points once
- Half of Anderson’s 16 ‘games played’ involved almost no significant volume, which makes his placing on this list extremely impressive.
- Giovani Bernard actually had a higher points per game average in 2014 than 2013, even with Jeremy Hill in the picture
Lowest % of Weeks as RB1
Do the Redskins see Alfred Morris as the right fit for the new scheme under Bill Callahan? If they do, I expect him to provide a larger weekly upside than he historically has. He was discussed in last week’s Twitter observations.
- Ingram improved his percentages dramatically in 2014 when given the chance to shine, finishing with a top 24 score in ten of 13 games (77%)
- The second-highest top 24 percentage behind Morris comes from Ryan Mathews. He hasn’t provided much upside and has been held back by injuries, but “might just be the most valuable handcuff right now.”
- Doug Martin, the originator of the idea behind this series, scored 91.6 of his 313.6 points (29%) in 2012 in just two games. His PPR RB2 finish (behind Peterson) was a perfect example of yearly total deception. He has not had a RB1 week in the last two years
Highest % of Weeks as RB2
- Chip Kelly seemingly has a fantasy type. Along with Sam Bradford from part one, the two newest Eagles acquisitions in the backfield provide a great fantasy floor when they play
- Whereas some of these guys have high RB1% numbers, the ones with low upside numbers are worth re-considering (Martin, Frank Gore and Andre Ellington)
- However, Gore and Fred Jackson, for example, could be so cheap that the amount of points they provide you with will outweigh their cost
Lowest % of Weeks as RB2
- Just like Peyton Manning in the quarterback piece, Jamaal Charles shows sometimes the best players are too busy scoring huge numbers to worry about having a mediocre game. However, Charles (unlike Manning), has missed out on the top 24 in almost one third of his games
- Rashad Jennings had a good chance to be ‘the guy’ last year, but things may never be the same again with the balance shifting to an Andre Williams/Shane Vereen backfield.
- Among players whose RB1% was significantly higher were the usual suspects (Peterson, Lynch, Forte) but Gio and Anderson also stand out
Highest % of Games Played
I added this section to illustrate the difference between quarterbacks and running backs. There were twelve established quarterbacks that have played 100% of a possible 48 games over the last three years, whereas that level of participation is almost impossible at running back (as illustrated below).
- Everyone gets injured and misses time. It is rare to have a running back who plays every week, which is why I find it so important to find players who produce when they do play
- The twelfth most healthy player still missed a significant amount of time
- Only three players have played in all 48 games over the last three years. Interestingly, they all have a strong, physical running style
- DeMarco Murray barely missed this list with an 83%. Is he still considered injury prone?
Lowest % of Games Played
Various things have kept these guys off the field: mostly injuries, but also suspensions, depth charts and opportunities. Some are more concerning than others
- Foster is a target for me again this off-season. Until he actual shows signs of slowing down on the field, he will give you a RB1 chance every single week he suits up
- Similarly, Peterson’s non-football issues (and age) have lowered his price, but has his on-field play actually started to decline?
Superstar Weeks
Superstar weeks are those extra-special ones where a player can single-handedly take over a contest for you. To decide what qualifies as a superstar week, I took the RB1 baseline (16.9 points) and the average top overall running back score each week (34.3) and split the two to get: 25.6.
- The list of names that ‘go big’ often is very short. Charles and Forte are the only players with double digit SS weeks
- Of the top seven players in DLF ADP, only LeSean McCoy is missing from this list (9%). He is coming off a very poor fantasy year, with a highest score of only 21.9 and missing the top 24 in half of his games. How will his chances of big weeks change in his new city?
- Anderson’s stunning second half of 2014 is spotlighted below
CJ Anderson
The biggest winner from this research deserves his own section. What Anderson did in the second half of the year was unprecedented. Most of the other names on the RB1 and SS lists have been fed the ball often every time they get on the field, but consider he was only the primary ball carrier in half of his games played and his numbers are pretty darn good. Of his eight games with more than five carries, he was a RB1 in seven and a RB2 in the other. Additionally, in five of those eight, he scored over 25.6 points. The table below focuses on only those games:
He would top of all the highlighted lists with ease. Was there really a Peyton Manning regression late in the year, or was it just Anderson taking over the offense? It is also not just point-scoring that Anderson excelled at; as Joe Juan examines over at NumberFire. If the Broncos keep him as their workhorse (I believe they will), then he is absolutely one of my favorite offseason acquisition targets.
The Rookies
Overall, the group didn’t have a large fantasy impact
- Hill did a lot with a little to end up as the PPR RB10 for the season. In his nine games with more than ten attempts, he finished in the top 24 in seven (78%) and the top 12 in 5 (56%)
- Jerick McKinnon is one of my targets on this list. He had a few good yardage games, but has yet to reach the end zone. With the Vikings offense set to grow with Teddy Bridgewater, I think the TDs will come in 2015
The Best of the Rest
- Some of these players are able to contribute without seeing the majority of the carries, whereas others only get the chance when a starter ahead of them goes down. Knile Davis, for example, has had double digit scoring in six of his seven games with ten or more carries. But how often will he see those carries with Charles in the picture?
- The player with the highest ADP here by quite a margin is Latavius Murray. He hasn’t had much of a chance to show what he can do, but that may change next year
- Trent Richardson’s second game in the NFL was his highest scoring one (30.5 points). It has been all downhill since then (which is ironic, seeing as he can’t seem to go that way on the field)
- I expect a few of these players at the top of the list could still make significant fantasy contributions as pass-catchers (Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead and perhaps Darren Sproles)
Conclusion
This position is probably my favorite in dynasty football. It is so important to find production, yet the unpredictability and fluidity of the successful players makes it very risky. When we look at the percentages of running backs on the high RB1/RB2 list, there is huge gap between the top player and the twelfth (30%), meaning very few running backs have placed in the top 24 regularly. Those who have owned these players are ahead of the pack.
Investing in a running back and seeing them drop off from the difference-makers at the top can be painful. That is one of the reasons why it gives me great pleasure to do as much research and gather as much information as possible to make sure I pick the right ones. The 2015 running back class will come in and shake up the ADP majorly. Opportunities, expectations and prices will all change. Hopefully, this piece will go some way to helping you indentify consistent producers that may be undervalued, or players who haven’t done quite as well as we thought.
Who stands out to you? Who are your bets to decline or breakout?
Below is the full list of data (excluding 2014 rookies who are highlighted above), sorted by ADP:
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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