2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Tyler Johnson, WR from Minnesota. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
The 2020 rookie class has long been touted as exceptional. The wide receiver group features top talents earmarked as first-round dynasty rookie picks along with some intriguing late-round prospects. Tyler Johnson is squarely in the group of receivers outside the first round of rookie drafts who possess quality traits. His mix of production and size checks boxes in several categories and suggests he can find success in the NFL.
THE STATS
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Johnson was a three-star prospect ranked outside the national top 500 in the 2016 recruiting class. He played quarterback in high school. Despite his low ranking, he earned scholarship offers from Wisconsin and Iowa before staying in-state and signing with Minnesota. He broke out as a 19.9-year-old sophomore by surpassing the 20% team market share production metric, then exploded with a 78-1,169-12 receiving line as a junior.
The statistics support his case as a quality prospect. His breakout age is in the top ten percent of historical NFL wide receiver prospects while his 98th historical percentile team-adjusted production share is elite. He will be just 21 years old when training camps open in August.
THE FILM
The film sends mixed signals of Johnson’s potential as a legitimate NFL wide receiver. He looks solid but not especially imposing, in line with his listed 6’1” and 206 pounds. He uses size to shield the ball from defenders and is adept at plucking the ball from the air away from his body.
Despite his production metrics, he is not fed the ball in creative ways. We do not see Johnson schemed into the offense through sweeps or “extended handoffs” such as quick screens or passes behind the line of scrimmage. In fact, Johnson had only one career college carry.
He uses his size to win on intermediate and deep routes between the numbers. His strength advantage is sometimes reminiscent of AJ Brown but he lacks Brown’s after the catch ability and athleticism. He occasionally shows surprising short-area quickness for his size but seems more of a build-up speed athlete than an explosive, quick-twitch one.
https://youtu.be/WOuElviCt-E
Additional videos can be found on Johnson’s DLF videos player page.
THE MEASURABLES
Johnson did not participate in athletic testing at the NFL Combine. Given the cancellation of pro days across the country, we are unlikely to get additional data points to complete his file. His Mock Draftable profile is therefore incomplete and includes only his measurements.
Based on limited information, his player comparisons include Quartney Davis, Marlon Brown, Ronald Johnson, Cam Phillips, Eric Decker, and Austin Collie. It is an underwhelming peer group that includes few relevant dynasty assets.
Johnson’s limited measurables do little to either reinforce or refute the idea he has the tools to succeed in the NFL.
DYNASTY VALUE
According to DLF’s April 2020 Rookie ADP, Johnson currently sits as the rookie 3.02 with an ADP of 26. If you look at April startup ADP, he sits at WR62 with an ADP of 156. This is around wide receivers Hunter Renfrow, KJ Hamler, John Ross, Golden Tate and JJ Arcega-Whiteside.
He sits at 21 in the DLF staff rookie rankings between Michael Pittman and Donovan Peoples-Jones and implying a late second-round rookie pick value slightly higher than ADP.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer, whose algorithm determines values based on actual MFL trades, ADP data, and DLF rankings, places Johnson’s value around the rookie 3.08 pick, suggesting actual MFL trades are significantly depressing his value relative to the Trade Analyzer’s other inputs. This suggests he may be much less expensive in real leagues relative to rankings and ADP.
CONCLUSION
Tyler Johnson has been a quality devy asset since his 2017 sophomore year. His value peaked after his junior year and he now projects as an early third-round dynasty rookie pick.
Johnson’s breakout age and team-adjusted production metrics are those of a quality prospect. Players with his production traits have favorable hit rates when paired with high NFL Draft capital. But draft capital is one of two main questions regarding Johnson. The other is athleticism. The two are intertwined. It is hard to see Johnson as a day-two draft selection. Similarly, it is difficult to project Johnson as an NFL team’s WR1 or an eventual top-100 dynasty asset.
He is projected to go in the late second or early third round of rookie drafts. In that range, there are more dynamic alternatives available such as Donovan Peoples-Jones or Lynn Bowden, players with upside superior to Johnson’s.
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