Dynasty Decision: Trevor Lawrence
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
Since being anointed the next generational prospect and drafted first overall in 2021, Trevor Lawrence has been expected to be the face of the Jacksonville Jaguars franchise and a fantasy football staple. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, his inconsistency has left dynasty managers questioning his long-term value and heading into his fifth season with a new head coach in place. Could Lawrence be poised for a breakout campaign or will he continue to frustrate?
Previous Performance
Lawrence entered the NFL with sky-high expectations after a legendary college career at Clemson. His rookie season in 2021 was a disaster, primarily due to the turmoil under head coach Urban Meyer, who didn’t even last the season. However, in 2022, under Doug Pederson, he took a massive leap, finishing as the QB6 in fantasy with 4,113 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. Many expected another step forward in 2023, but injuries and inconsistent play resulted in a disappointing QB13 overall finish, averaging only 16.66 points per game.
2024 was a further disappointing year as the Jaguar’s offense overalls struggled outside of the lone bright spot in Brian Thomas. Lawrence played well, but the struggles of the offense took their toll on him as he was being asked to carry the offense rather than the offense lifting him up. A shoulder injury then curtailed his season as he had surgery and finished his season after ten games.
Situation and Usage
The Jaguars have built their offense around Lawrence, but questions remain about his supporting cast. Since Lawrence was drafted, they have consistently had one of the worst combination of offensive lines, play calling, running game, and receiving core in the entire league. The emergence of Brian Thomas looks poised to catapult this offense forward a level and gives Lawrence a primary target to whom he can force-feed targets. The arrival of Liam Coen as head coach and play-caller brings renewed optimism, as he was the architect of a fantastic offense in Tampa Bay last year and should elevate the entire offense in Jacksonville. If the Jaguars can upgrade the offensive line and receiving core in the draft and free agency, they could put forward a top-ten unit and help provide Lawrence with the surroundings that will allow him to live up to his pre-draft hype.
Contract
Last off-season, the Jaguars handed Lawrence a monster five-year, $275m contract. That, in theory, ties him in until the 2031 season. However, realistically, the guarantees mean he will be the starter for the Jaguars for at least three seasons. In theory, the team could move on from him after the 2027 season with little dead cap hit. The majority of the contract is back-loaded, meaning his cap hits over the next three years are $17m, $24m, and $35m, respectively.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the QB17 in January ADP and the 39th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.05 in the 2025 draft or a random 2026 first-round pick and two second-round picks in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
I have long been a fan of Trevor Lawrence and held out hope that he would break out and pay off the long-term hype. The last couple of years have been a bit disappointing, and the Jaguars have not helped him at all, as they’ve struggled to put together a competent offense. With all of that said, the current valuation of QB17 is outrageous! This is before you have added in any potential rookie quarterbacks as well. He has shown that his talent is real and that he has enough mobility to complement his passing stats a little for fantasy. He also now has an elite WR1 in Brian Thomas and an impressive play-caller, which are the two most important building blocks to an impressive offense after the quarterback.
Lawrence is still incredibly young, aged only 25, and is locked up longer term with at least three seasons of security. Those two points alone should have him valued significantly higher in rankings and trades. If you can buy Lawrence for the 1.05 in the current draft, that feels like an absolute bargain, no matter your roster situation. If he were in the draft today, he would be the no doubt 1.01.
There is a lot of hate and stink attached to Lawrence because of the hype surrounding him as a prospect, but the truth remains he is, at worst, an average NFL quarterback. He has certainty and security around his starting job for three-plus seasons. He has got an elite WR1 and a play-caller who just led Baker Mayfield to an overall QB4 finish. The hate and value are completely unwarranted, and he is a screaming buy in any league or format, especially in superflex.
If you could pivot from somebody like Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield – who are valued higher but are losing their play-callers and have significant questions hanging over them – to Lawrence and add an asset in the process, that is a deal you should be making 100 times out of 100!
- Dynasty Decision: Trevor Lawrence - February 28, 2025
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