Dynasty Decision: Evan Engram
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Evan Engram, TE JAC
After an incredible rookie season in 2017, Engram toiled away with minimal production in New York before a move to Jacksonville reinvigorated his fantasy career. For the past two seasons, he has been incredibly productive, but with new weapons being added and now heading into his eighth season, should you be looking to get out before the value plummets?
Previous Performance
As a rookie, Evan Engram came out with a bang, posting one of the greatest rookie fantasy seasons we have ever seen. He posted a 115-64-722-6 season, finishing as the TE5 overall. He was not incredibly efficient with his volume but the sheer volume buoyed him massively. During the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he battled injuries which hugely affected his impact for fantasy. After those two injury-plagued seasons, Eli Manning retired and Engram didn’t see the same volume, meaning he struggled to make the same impact for fantasy.
Landing with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022, Engram saw a huge bounce back for fantasy. His volume of targets hadn’t changed massively. Still, he has drastically improved his catch rate, meaning he has secured 77.6% of his targets during his time with Jacksonville rather than only 61.1% of his targets with the Giants. If you look at the underlying numbers, there is no apparent reason for why this has changed so drastically. His aDOT is still in a similar range, and the percentage of catchable passes is similar. Trevor Lawrence is likely the reason he has seen such a turnaround. Lawrence is an incredibly accurate short to intermediate anticipation passer, which is where Engram is doing the majority of his damage.
Situation and Usage
The Jaguars have gone through quite a transition in their receiving room this off-season. With Calvin Ridley leaving in free agency, the Jaguars got aggressive and brought in Gabe Davis from Buffalo, as well as drafting Brian Thomas Jr in the first round of the draft. Some may be concerned that new targets could reduce the volume Engram will see, but I view it as a huge positive.
Engram feasts in short to intermediate areas of the field, particularly versus man coverage, where he can use his impressive movement skills for his size to consistently create separation. With the addition of Thomas and Davis, they are both primarily deep threats who will play outside, drawing coverage away and creating more space underneath for Engram to operate in. He may see a slight downtick in overall volume but will likely see an uptick in production after the catch. That is before you talk about the fact that the Jaguars’ offense should take an overall step forward as Trevor Lawrence continues to ascend as a player, which could, in turn, increase the volume of touchdown opportunities that Engram sees.
Contract
Engram is in the second year of a three-year extension he signed last off-season. The Jaguars heavily backloaded the contract, so he played the 2023 and 2024 seasons with only $12 million in total cap hit across the two seasons combined. In 2025, Engram will have a $19.75m cap hit with $13.5m in dead cap if they opt to move on from him. Because of this structure, it is doubtful that he will play in the 2025 season on his current contract. An extension after the 2024 season feels inevitable and could be a great way of freeing up some cap space to make room for a pending Trevor Lawrence extension while rewarding Engram and securing him longer term.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the TE9 in January ADP and the 78th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth an early third-round pick in a superflex league or the 3.02 in the 2024 draft. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Engram is somewhat of a divisive player, but his current valuation in the trade analyzer and recent trades makes it feel like he is being grossly undervalued. He is unlikely to repeat the success of the 2023 season, but he is likely to be a solid, reliable tight end who will finish with another TE1 season this year and next at least. If I can acquire that for a single third-round pick, I would do that in a second. I would be comfortable paying up to a mid-second-round pick for him in most leagues. Whether you’re a contender or rebuilding, I wouldn’t be looking to sell Engram based on his current price. He is only 29 and should have fantasy relevancy for at least a couple more seasons.
His production will likely outweigh his cost for a couple of seasons, and you may be able to sell him for more during the points-scoring season. So, if you’re rebuilding, you will likely be better off holding him for a couple of months and then selling him in August or September.
Engram is unlikely to win you a title, and if you’re rostering him, you will likely be looking to upgrade at the position and gain a positional advantage. However, he is a solid, reliable option who will not cost you many games and allow you to spend your resources at other more impactful positions. At the cost, it is hard not to see him as a great option to go out and acquire.
- Dynasty Decision: Deshaun Watson - May 17, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Zamir White - May 10, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Evan Engram - May 3, 2024
