Dynasty Running Back Danger Rankings: 16-9
The NFL Draft is finally upon us and we again have a strange situation brewing at the running back position. This particular draft seems to be full of elite receiving prospects but few ultra-elite runners. We’ve witnessed the running back position lose value in both fantasy and reality over the years and it’s safe to expect a few of your favorite rookies to slip to day three, yet again. Still, the current landscape isn’t so safe, either. Let’s look at the NFL’s current depth charts and assess the current backfields in danger of being usurped by younger talent in this year’s draft and assess some value for the future.
A team unlikely to draft a running back means their current starter would rank low on this “danger scale,” while a team almost certain to draft a running back means their current back is very dangerous to own right now. We’ll go in reverse order, meaning these are some of the “safer” backs to own in dynasty leagues. Remember, this is not a ranking of the value of these backs, only their danger level. In short, the lower their number, the less likely they are to lose value at the end of this month.
Remember as well, this is the worst time to trade for a running back because you simply never know what their team will do in the NFL Draft. If you’re committed to trading for one, look for a safe one and that’s clearly not in the range where we continue today. In my opinion, the list today represents some running backs who getting close to being in the most danger of losing playing time or losing their job in general.
Let’s take a look.
16.) Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
I’m putting Pacheco right in the middle of the pack here. While he’s been a revelation for the Chiefs so far, I’m not convinced they wouldn’t at least consider taking a really good running back should someone fall to them. The re-signing of Clyde Edwards-Helaire helps Pacheco more than it hurts him but I think he belongs right in the middle here as the Chiefs can consider some luxury picks in the NFL Draft.
15.) Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Kamara had his moments last year and posted a solid overall season with 694 rushing yards, 75 catches, 466 receiving yards, and six total touchdowns. However, his yards per carry averaged dipped to just 3.9 and his 6.2 yards per catch average was the lowest in his entire career. There’s no doubt Kamara is simply slowing down as he ages and his days of being a truly dominant force at the position are likely coming to a close. What could save him is the fact the Saints have a lot of other holes to fill moving forward. In the end, New Orleans is going to need to find a long-term replacement for him and it’s hard to say if that really is Kendre Miller.
14.) Joe Mixon, RB HOU
The Texans were quickly getting shut out on the running back market, so they moved fast to trade for Mixon. He could be viewed as safer by a lot of people reading this column but the fact is Mixon has always just been about average when it comes to fantasy production. He’s had four 1000-yard seasons but none over 1,205. He’s also posted just one season with double-digit touchdowns and averages right around 40 catches a year. Again, these are good but not great numbers. The Texans did sign him to an extension but only for $13 million in guaranteed money. With the team clearly souring on Dameon Piece, it wouldn’t be stunning to see them add to their depth chart.
13.) Tony Pollard, RB TEN
Pollard was another big-name acquisition this off-season, signing a deal with the Titans to replace Derrick Henry. The challenge with him is the Titans clearly don’t see Tajae Spears as a long-term answer or they wouldn’t have signed Pollard in the first place. Beyond that, Pollard just hasn’t been that great recently. After receiving the chance of a lifetime with Dallas last year, he just didn’t produce the way most people thought he would. While he’s in the middle of this list and it could go either way, I’m not exactly gobbling up Pollard shares in the hopes of having it pay off.
12.) Aaron Jones, RB MIN
Again, here we have yet another big-name running back who found a new home. Jones has had some great moments during his time in the NFL but last year was a mess as he recorded just 656 rushing yards while battling some nagging injuries. Jones has just Ty Chandler behind him at the moment but this really does look like a team putting a finger in the hole of a sinking boat at the moment. At some point, they’re going to need to find a long-term solution at the position. While it may not be this year, it wouldn’t be shocking if it was.
11.) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE
Stevenson has always been a player either on the cusp of stardom or being a roster clogger. The Patriots new regime isn’t married to him and his 2022 season was markedly better than last year’s performance. Stevenson has had his moments but really hasn’t look like a game-changing talent at any point in his career. His yards per carry dropped by a full yard last season and 10% of his production came on one play. I’m just not sure the Patriots look at him and think the position is solidified.
10.) Javonte Williams, RB DEN
I’ve really never seen Williams as being that special and last year justified that opinion. His 774 yards and 3.6 yards per carry weren’t amazing at all and he averaged less than five yards per catch, which is borderline anemic. While he could easily get another season to be the bellcow (and it likely helps matters if the Broncos have to package multiple picks to move up to get a quarterback), time seems to be running a little thin with him.
9.) Austin Ekeler, RB WAS
There was a time where Ekeler would have been at the safe end of this list. A truly dominant force in dynasty leagues over the past few years, it really does seem as if he’s hitting the inevitable wall. The Commanders moved quickly to sign him but only gave him a two-year contract for around $8 million – far from what Ekeler was hoping for going into last season. It looks like he’s going to share time with Brian Robinson but it also seems like neither are truly safe based on the amount the Commanders have (or don’t have) invested in the position.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
