Dynasty Decision: DJ Moore
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
DJ Moore, WR CHI
It’s hard to believe that Moore is heading into his seventh season in the NFL. However, that is the case for the soon-to-be 27-year-old receiver. He showed promise and potential in Carolina, but this last season in Chicago, he finally broke out in a big way, finishing as the overall WR6. However, with a new quarterback and offensive play-caller in town, as well as some additional competition for targets, do we need to be concerned about Moore’s longevity?
Previous Performance
Throughout his career, Moore has been the epitome of solid consistency from year to year. He has missed two games throughout his career and has been in the top 25 every year since his rookie campaign.
As a first-round pick, he joined Carolina in Cam Newton‘s final year as a full-time starter and struggled slightly for target volume as the team didn’t pass at a high rate, and Christian McCaffrey commanded 124 targets. However, following his rookie season, Moore started his run of consistency with four consecutive seasons in Carolina commanding over 118 targets and finishing between the WR16 and 25 on the season. Had he had a little better touchdown luck (averaged 4.75 per season), he would have likely broken into the top 12 at the position at least once.
After the 2022 season, he was traded to the Chicago Bears in the move that netted the Carolina Panthers the number one overall pick in the draft. Immediately, Moore hit the ground running, combining with both Justin Fields and rookie Tyson Bagent to post a 136-96-1,364-8 stat line and finish as the overall WR6. This last season was a career-high in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, as well as yards per route run. He ended the season with six weeks in the top 12 at the position, including a monster week-five performance against Washington. Despite the season-long consistency, Moore was a little boom-bust weekly. Despite those six top 12 finishes, he finished outside the top 36 seven times, including three of the season’s final four weeks.
Situation and Usage
The situation is vitally essential for receivers as they rely on others to get them the ball. There is a lot up in the air with the 2024 Chicago Bears, as they will have a new offensive play-caller, a new quarterback, and an abundance of new receiving talent. So there is a lot of projection about what Moore should expect next season and beyond.
It is widely speculated that the Bears will select Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. There is always a little bit of trepidation regarding receivers in an offense with a rookie quarterback, as, historically, they have rarely produced multiple fantasy-relevant players. However, even as a rookie, Williams will likely be an upgrade over a run-first quarterback in Justin Fields and undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent. This gives some hope that Moore will sustain his 2023 production.
The concern comes with the additions the Bears have made to the offense. Last season, Moore was very clearly the centerpiece of the offense and commanded a 28.5% target share season. However, they have added multiple weapons to compete for targets over the past few months. Keenan Allen was acquired from the Los Angeles Chargers via trade and commanded a 24.4% target share in 2023 with the Chargers so he could eat into Moore’s workload. The Bears also added Gerald Everett in free agency, who will pair with Cole Kmet at tight end, each of whom saw north of 10% target shares last season, and D’Andre Swift, a talented receiver out of the backfield. And all of that’s before the potential of adding another receiver to the draft. It is safe to say that Moore may struggle to command the 28.5% target share he saw in 2023, but as the number one receiver, he should be able to command more than a 25% target share, and that should be sufficient for him to still be a fantasy superstar in 2024.
Contract
Moore has one of the more interesting contracts in the league. Because he was traded, the Panthers paid the signing bonus on his contract, meaning that there is very little in the way of guaranteed money on his current contract with the Bears. He has base salaries of $15.85m and $14.85m in the next two years, respectively. $1.1m of his 2024 salary is guaranteed, and there will be a $1m roster bonus in 2025. This means Moore has a $16m cap hit charge in 2024 and 2025. Considering the recent explosion in the top end of the wide receiver market, where four players are averaging over $25m per year, it is probably fair to say that Moore is a little underpaid as the 18th highest-paid receiver.
There is an argument for Moore wanting an extension to give him longer-term security and a higher payday. Financially, the Bears are in a position with a new rookie quarterback, and they can give him that extension.
This is where the interesting part comes in. If you’re the Bears, I would try to extend Moore sooner as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase are all due monster extensions, and they should reset the wide receiver contract market. Moore would likely love the extension, but it would benefit him to wait until those three players have signed their extensions and then fit in afterward. I would expect him to sign a new contract this off-season, but it could wait until later to complete it.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR16 in March ADP and the 24th overall player in one quarterback ADP. The trade analyzer has him worth a mid-2024 first-round pick in a superflex league or between the 1.03 and 1.04 in a single quarterback league in the current draft. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
As a dynasty asset, he felt overvalued for a long time as he was held up as a top-12 wide receiver and consistently produced WR2-type seasons. That changed last year when he saw monster volume and equally produced. Now it feels as though he could be undervalued as people are chasing the new shiny young thing, and he has fallen to the WR18 despite that impressive 2023 campaign.
Moore is the perfect player to target if you’re a contending team but not an elite, clear-cut favorite. He is slightly undervalued but can produce elite numbers. He is also a little more boom-bust so he can give you match-winning weeks at any point. He can also equally hurt you if you’re looking for consistency. The value of trading a mid-first-round pick for almost instant production is undoubtedly appealing. I would understand taking someone like Marvin Harrison Jr or Malik Nabers over him as you chase ceiling and upside. However, once you get outside those top five or six picks in a superflex draft, I would much rather roster Moore than the rookies in that range.
If you’re rebuilding, Moore is still young enough to be relevant when you want to compete, so I wouldn’t sell too quickly. He still has a three to four-year window of elite production.
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