2024 Coaching Changes: The Dynasty Impact of Raheem Morris to the Atlanta Falcons
Savvy fantasy football managers focus on all positions of a football team, including the coaching staff. Offseason changes can hugely impact skill players’ production at certain positions. Each week, we will look at one of the eight coaches who have found new homes and examine the potential dynasty impact on the key members of that team. We have an added bonus this season. Our resident IDP expert, Tom Kislingbury, has joined us to cover the defensive impact of the changes.
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris hired as Head Coach
The coaching change series starts in the South with an Atlanta Falcons franchise that has struggled with mediocrity for years. Former coach Arthur Smith led the team to three consecutive 7-10 finishes. Smith was an offensive coach who used a lot of top-tier draft capital on that side of the ball.
Smith’s refusal to incorporate high-priced talent into his offense likely contributed to his demise. The coordinators on both sides of the ball have also been replaced. New head coach Raheem Morris brought some familiar faces from Los Angeles. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson takes over for Dave Ragone, and on the defensive side of the ball, Ryan Nielsen has been swapped out for Jimmy Lake. Both coaches were on the Rams staff last season under the young phenom Sean McVey.
Expected Change in Offensive Philosophy and Approach
We just mentioned that Morris brought Zac Robinson over to run his offense. One would have to think this will lead to a major shift in Arthur Blank’s team’s offensive philosophy. It sure cannot be any worse than it has been in the past. The offense wasn’t able to crack the top 15 in scoring over the past three years and ranked 26th in two of those three.
Compare that to the Rams’ offense. That team has been in the top 10 twice over that same span. The 2022 season was an outlier and an all-around bad year for the team. Look for more gap schemes and runs up the middle, along with a quick and efficient passing game that utilizes short throws. It is a perfect scheme for their newly acquired quarterback.
Core Tenets We Can Expect for the 2024 Falcons Offense Are:
Gap Schemes With Runs Up the Middle
McVay and Kyle Shanahan used to build around the wide zone, which led to many outside runs. Eventually, this set up the play action but has since been scrapped for more of a gap scheme in both offenses. Zac Robinson will likely use Bijan Robinson in multiple different scenarios to best utilize his talents.
Quick, Efficient Passing Game
Getting the ball out quickly will help offset a heavy pass rush. Atlanta already has a top-five offensive line, and the new style should only serve them better in 2024.
Short and High Percentage Routes
We will talk about the needs at receiver a little later here, but this should bold well for Drake London, who has seen plenty of targets but a ton of inefficiencies in those looks.
Offensive Players Most Affected by the Change
Quarterbacks
Perhaps another reason Arthur Smith was ousted is poor play from the quarterback position. Smith inherited a 36-year-old broken Matt Ryan in 2021. Ryan was replaced in 2022 by the combination of a washed-up Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder. The 2023 season wasn’t much better, as the offense was led by the duo of Ridder and journeyman Taylor Heinicke. In a quarterback-driven league, that is not exactly a who’s who of talent at the position.
Kirk Cousins
Atlanta went out early in free agency and fixed their quarterback problem by signing Kirk Cousins on the first day of “legal tampering,” causing us to rewrite this section of the article. It was a necessary move. Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder are still under contract, while Logan Woodside is an unrestricted free agent. Heinicke could be a salary cap casualty. Atlanta could save $7,060,000 in salary by cutting the veteran while incurring only a $2 million hit.
data courtesy of dlf player scoring history app
You can see by the chart above that neither of the two has ever averaged more than 15 points per game and is hardly even rosterable, even in Superflex leagues. Ridder is a different story and is still on a cheap rookie deal. The Cincinnati grad will be kept around, likely as a backup.
Cousins brings some stability to the position. The well-traveled signal-caller has been finished inside the top 12 in six of the last eight seasons, with one of those two seasons being cut short by injury. Let’s just say he is consistent.
The DLF Player Scoring History App above shows us just how steady the Michigan State grad has been. Cousins spent his first three seasons in the league playing behind the oft-injured Robert Griffin III. We can see what happened when he finally took the reigns for good in 2015.
The same table also shows us how good he has been from a point-per-game perspective. The former Commander and Viking is good for over 18 points per game almost regularly. You can read more about this in the newsletter published on 3/14/24.
Robinson is a former player and has spent his career in Los Angeles, alternating between coaching the quarterbacks and the receivers. It’ll be interesting to see how they use their new toy and what nuances Robinson can incorporate with Cousins from his time with the offensive guru that is Sean McVay.
Running Backs
Atlanta is all set at the running back position. Whoever the quarterback is, he will have the luxury of turning around and handing the ball off to Bijan Robinson. Of course, this assumes the new staff will utilize their high-priced pick properly. Tyler Allgeier will still be a thing because of his cheap contract but don’t expect to see a split similar to last season. Cordarrelle Patterson is a free agent and is also 33 years old, so he likely won’t be back, freeing up Robinson for a much more significant role in 2024.
Bijan Robinson
We’ve already mentioned Robinson’s blasphemous underutilization in this piece. The new staff is likely aware of this and should correct the issue. This could, and should, mean big things for the second-year star out of Texas. We saw what Kyren Williams could do in a McVey-led offense. Let’s hope the new offensive coordinator uses his namesake the same way in Atlanta.
data courtesy of dlf player scoring history app
We can see that not only was the eighth overall pick in 2023 just as good as Williams on a per-touch basis, but he was also way better than Allgeier, making the timeshare last year even more of a head-scratcher. Smith should have been fired just for that, but we digress.
data courtesy of dlf college market share app
Even in college, the 22-year-old showed out better than his backfield mate. While college numbers are not the be-all and end-all, they do typically indicate what to expect in the future. We know the talent is there; we need the coaching to utilize it properly. We should see that in 2024.
Wide Receivers
Wideout is a position the organization needs. Prior to this week, outside of up-and-coming star Drake London, Chris Blair, and Austin Mack were the only wideouts under contract. Who? That is precisely what we said. Even if Mack Hollins, Van Jefferson, or Scotty Miller are re-signed, they don’t move the fantasy needle.
The Falcons have seven picks in the upcoming draft. However, the team decided to sign Darnell Mooney via free agency to fill their WR2 void. He should be a significant upgrade for the Falcons, even if he’s the fourth pass-catching option in their offense. As mentioned above, Atlanta has quite a bit of cap space to work with and could save more by cutting Heinicke.
Drake London
Drake London is the one wideout who should be around for at least another two seasons. The soon-to-be third-year receiver has been good, not great, during his first two seasons in the league. His WR30 finish last season improved his WR37 finish during his rookie season. The USC grad has shown some upside with two top-10 finishes in 2023, including a WR2 finish in Week 14 versus the division-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
data courtesy of dlf college market share app
Will new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson unlock the potential for London, and whose role will he fill? Will it be Cooper Kupp’s or Puka Nacua’s? Either way, we have to expect it to turn out better than his first two go-arounds under the Smith regime.
data courtesy of dlf college market share app
Looking at the college market share per game chart above, we can see that London can handle the volume that Kupp and Nacua did in college. We would be willing to bet he would love to see similar usage in 2024. Without any competition outside of Kyle Pitts (more on him in a moment) on the roster for targets, the sky could be the limit next season. London is another buy target for those frustrated with the anemic Falcons offense of late.
Tight Ends
Another position misappropriated on the Atlanta roster is the tight end position. Kyle Pitts has the draft capital mirroring Bijan Robinson and the underutilization to match. Jonnu Smith has moved on to the Miami Dolphins, and while his production was solid during his time in Georgia, it came at the expense of some counting stats for the potential stud in Pitts. This, too, should change in the years to come.
Kyle Pitts
It would be unfair to label Kyle Pitts a “bust” just yet. As with Robinson and London covered above, the Florida star has been the victim of poor quarterback play coupled with downright lousy coaching. We know that when Pitts has a somewhat competent quarterback, he can produce double-digit numbers or better.
data courtesy of dlf payer splits app
The other factor we must consider before we put that bad four-letter word on his name is that tight ends take a lot longer to adjust to the NFL game than just about any other position in the league. The Rams did feature their tight ends from time to time, so Robinson may take advantage of the skillset that Pitts brings to the table.
data courtesy of fantasy pros
The targets were much more plentiful in Atlanta than in Los Angeles. This is something to monitor, possibly, but with the lack of talent at the wideout position mentioned above, we are left wondering if Pitts won’t be tabbed to fill some of that void. Pitts outscored Higbee by nearly 30 points on those additional 20 targets. The other thing to note is that Smith’s departure will vacate 70 targets.
Three Moves Dynasty Managers Should Think About:
1. Buy…or sell, Kirk Cousins
This seems pretty straightforward. If you’re contending, Cousins likely represents a valuable and stabilizing player at the QB position. He has a long-term contract, weapons surrounding him, and is likely a back-end QB1 in dynasty. On the other hand, if you’re contending, he’s a piece more valuable to sell than hang onto.
2. Buy high on Drake London
A couple of weeks ago this would have been much easier, but the truth is in some leagues his value still hasn’t increased to the point it likely will by the start of the season. If he’s not yet valued as a top 24 player, he’s likely worth buying now.
3. Buy low on Kyle Pitts
This is easier said than done. In many leagues, you’ll find the Kyle Pitts manager is the same one who drafted him highly and has held on tightly. But if you are in a league where the original manager has shipped him away, try checking in on the price.
jessie bates | dale zanine-usa today sports
Expected Change in Defensive Philosophy and Approach
Jimmy Lake was officially the Assistant Head Coach for the 2023 Rams, with Rahaam Morris as the defensive coordinator. We can assume that the two of them worked closely on that side of the ball, and Lake has specifically been a defensive specialist since 2000, aside from his time as Washington HC and on the Rams last season. Without any NFL data with Lake as a head coach or defensive coordinator, we must make some assumptions about the scheme and approach. He probably would not have been hired to this gig if he were not sympatico with Raheem Morris’ philosophy and approach.
When Morris took over as Rams DC following the great 2020 Rams defensive season (and Brandon Staley’s subsequent move to the Chargers), he changed his defensive approach significantly. Instead of using defenses similar to those he used when previously running the Buccaneers and Falcons defense, Morris adopted many of Staley’s Vic Fangio-inspired tendencies. Given league trends and how successful those have been, we can expect him to stay true to that, but it’s not nearly as cut and dried as with many defensive coaches. Flexibility and the ability to adapt is a rare thing.
Core Tenets We Can Expect for the 2024 Falcons Defense Are:
Heavy use of odd fronts
Somewhere between 40-50% of defensive snaps should see an odd front. This is exceptionally high.
Lower-than-average base secondary usage
Expect nickel on over 65% of snaps, dime on ~15%, and base to be only ~20%.
Very heavy single-LB package deployment
Expect 45-55% of defensive snaps to feature only one orthodox LB. This means that in IDP terms, we can only expect a single full-time LB. The second LB will be listed as a ‘starter’ on most depth charts but is unlikely to play more than 60% of snaps.
Moderately high blitz rate
Expect LBs, especially, to be blitz-heavy. This is mostly a bad thing for IDP LBs.
A much less clear, strong/free safety split
The Rams, Morris, and the whole Fangio tree heavily use split safeties rather than an orthodox box/deep split, a significant change from 2023.
Expected most-used defensive personnel packages:
- 32222. 34 base.
- 22232. 425 nickel.
- 32132. Odd-front, single-LB, nickel.
Defensive Players Most Affected by the Change
Defensive Line
Grady Jarrett
Jarrett is a potential cap casualty. His best days are a few years in the past; as of now, he’s a $20m cap hit for 2024. It’ll be surprising if he’s on the roster next year.
The Entire Edge Position
The 2023 Falcons made considerable strides in moving on from their position as the worst pass-rushing team of 2021-2022. But it was just a regression to average. To progress further, they desperately need a talent injection. None of the edges on the roster are good IDP bets for next season.
Linebackers
Troy Andersen
As of now, Andersen is likely in pole position for the single full-time LB job. But the offseason is long, and much can happen. He’s a hold if you’ve got him, but it’s a risky buy.
Nate Landman
It’s possible he has 2024 value, but it’s relatively unlikely given that he’s competing to be the top LB on a team that absolutely could add more competition for the role. Hold him in very deep leagues, but feel OK about cutting him if you need to.
Secondary
Jessie Bates
Bates had an amazing 2023, but he’s a huge risk going forward as an IDP. There was no real reason for his 2023 tackle volume and rate. He wasn’t deployed in an especially tackle-heavy way—quite the opposite, in fact. This happens. Weird spike years come along, but you should be extremely wary of them repeating, especially given that the Falcons safety scheme is going to switch to be more two-deep. He’s a glaring sell.
Three Moves IDP Dynasty Managers Should Think About
1. Sell Jessie Bates
It’s really hard to move on from IDPs who just posted an elite season. Our brains really want to believe they can just be good from now on. But that’s not how IDPs work. It’s especially not how the safety position works. And the coaching situation here works against Bates, too.
2. Lowball offers for Troy Andersen
He’s by no means a sure thing, but for multiple reasons, he has never actually posted a good IDP season. See if you can get him on the cheap.
3. Sell Nate Landman
As with Bates above, if you enjoyed Landman’s points in 2023, you will want to believe that’s just his level now. But that’s an improbable outcome.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading the first of our eight coaching series recaps. We hope you enjoyed the added defensive content. This Falcons team has many moving parts, and it will look completely different from what it did in 2023 on both sides of the ball. The way we figure it, things cannot be much worse. All signs point to improvements on the offensive side, and it would be disappointing if they weren’t—scenarios like these present prime opportunities to buy low.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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