Dynasty Decision: Jonathan Taylor
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
He has been a fantasy star when he was healthy and on the field. However, over the past four years, he hasn’t been healthy and on the field enough to warrant the price he has held. Having recently signed an extension to keep him with the Colts, does that mean we should buy into Taylor’s longevity or use it as an opportunity to jump off?
Previous Performance
Taylor entered the league as one of the most anticipated prospects in a while. After an incredible college career with Wisconsin, he hit the ground running in his rookie year. He finished on a tear, averaging 26.1 points per game in his final five games, leading people to titles. He followed that up with a phenomenal sophomore season, averaging 21.9 points per game to finish as the overall RB1. Injuries, quarterback issues, and changing coaching staff have hit over the last two years, meaning he has disappointed in back-to-back years. In the previous two years, he has played only 21 out of a possible 34 games.
Situation and Usage
Despite a challenging couple of years, the future with the Colts is incredibly bright. They drafted their franchise quarterback last season in Anthony Richardson, who, despite the glimpses being brief, looked incredibly comfortable in the league. They have one of the best play-callers in the entire league in Shane Steichen, who should always have them set up to produce offensively. Steichen uses RPOs at amongst the highest rates in the league, allowing the running backs to see more positive looks when running the ball.
The knock on Taylor throughout his career is that he’s always had to split work with someone else. Initially, it was Nyheim Hines. Last year, it was Zack Moss. That will likely not be the case this year, as Moss is a free agent, and I wouldn’t expect the Colts to spend significant resources to complement Taylor. This means he may finally see an opportunity share north of 70% for the first time in his career.
Contract
After a reasonably public contract disagreement, Taylor signed a three-year, $42m contract extension in October. Realistically, this is a two-year contract extension for $27 million. The 2024 year is fully guaranteed, while most of the 2025 contract will be guaranteed this March. However, after that 2025 season, Taylor can be released for a paltry $2.5m dead cap hit, which would save the Colts $13m by releasing him. There is every chance if Taylor is playing well, he plays in that third year, but this far in advance, you can’t bank on it. For dynasty purposes, we can only view Taylor as a reliable asset for the next two seasons.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB6 in January ADP and the 22nd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.05 in a 1QB league or a random 2025 first and second. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Jonathan Taylor is a tough player to decide what to do with right now (which is why I started this off-season series with him). The upside is blatant, as he won people leagues in both 2020 and 2021. However, in the past two seasons, he has done incredibly little to actually help you win fantasy matchups.
If he were being priced as a truly elite asset in the top three positionally or a first-round startup pick, he would easily be a sell candidate for me. However, at the moment, I think he is incredibly fairly valued. He has more upside than almost any other player at the position outside of Christian McCaffrey, but he could easily disappoint for the third year in a row.
There is no doubt that Taylor is a fragile asset. Any running back is in dynasty; however, a player who has missed games the last two seasons is more fragile than most. If you consider yourself a middling contender, he is the perfect asset. With a team that has post-season ambitions and you think could compete but are probably not the nailed-on favorite as we speak, he is the type of high-upside swing I would be looking to make. If it goes well, he can lead you to a title. If it goes badly, you’re not devastated, as you weren’t a favorite to win the title anyway.
I am thrilled to actively acquire him, but I would rather send player-for-player type deals than buy with future draft capital as he has the downside that could destroy your season and leave you with a high draft pick. Pivoting from a stable player like DK Metcalf or Rachaad White and maybe adding a small asset could be a move to raise your risk profile, but the upside could lead you to a ceiling you are unable to reach otherwise.
If you roster Taylor and are not looking to contend in 2024, I think you need to hold him and look to sell when he is producing in season. You are unlikely to get a great return right now, as people are always nervous about acquiring running backs before the draft.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Michael Penix, QB Washington - April 20, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - April 19, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Jermaine Burton, WR Alabama - April 15, 2024
