Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Audric Estime and Ricky Pearsall
Each week throughout the 2024 NFL season, I’ll cover two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and will generally write about the most prominent performers from that particular week. I’ll discuss how well he’s lived up to expectations at the NFL level and then grade the player in three categories: performance to date, rookie season potential, and long-term upside.
Audric Estime, RB DEN
Week 10 stats: 14 carries for 53 yards and no touchdowns.
Coming into week ten, Audric Estime had 15 carries in the five games he played. Sean Payton finally took the training wheels off, almost doubling Estime’s carry total in this game alone. He was the clear lead back for Denver in an important matchup against their division rival Chiefs, while fellow running backs Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for only three carries after combining for 155 carries on the season up to that game. Estime turned those touches into 53 yards against the NFL’s third-stingiest rushing defense. He seems to have done enough to maintain a significant role moving forward, as Coach Payton said, “He’ll continue to get more reps” following the game.
Following a high school career that eventually led to him winning NJ.com’s Football Player of the Year award, Estime elected to attend Notre Dame. During his freshman season, he didn’t see much action behind eventual NFL back Kyren Williams, but his playtime ticked up as a sophomore. He led the team in rushing yards and touchdowns despite not being their leading ball carrier. Estime followed that up with a junior season where he led the Fighting Irish in carries, yards, and touchdowns while leading all independent schools in rushing yards and touchdowns. His 1,341 rushing yards were the 12th best in the nation, and his 18 rushing touchdowns were the third-most in FBS.
Despite a solid collegiate career, Estime’s NFL Draft stock got dinged a bit at the combine after he ran the slowest 40-yard dash among running backs. He performed well in the other events (fourth-best broad jump and fifth-best vertical and bench press), but NFL teams have a hard time looking past slow 40 times. In the end, he wound up being drafted by the Broncos in the fifth round. In dynasty circles, Estime had a fall as well. He started draft season as rookie RB7 and 27th overall and steadily trickled down month after month, ending up as RB10 and 38th overall in the final rookie mocks of May.
Performance to Date: C-
Estime missed a month of game action with a short stint on injured reserve early in the season and was not heavily used once he returned. On the season, he is 39th overall among rookies in scoring, and since his return from IR in week six, he’s been 29th overall among rookies. Mixing in the veterans, he’s RB60 since week six, which is actually pretty gross; my C- might be a little generous in hindsight.
Rookie Season Potential: B
Assuming Estime holds onto the job, if he can average something in the neighborhood of ten points per week the rest of the way, he would be in the low-end RB3 category. As injuries pile up as the season progresses, and the NFL’s weird bye week schedule rears its ugly head down the stretch, you’ll need a capable RB3 to plug into your lineups. The biggest concern is Estime’s complete invisibility in the passing game thus far. He only had 26 receptions in 37 college games, and as a pro he hasn’t even seen a single target in six games. In a PPR world, it will be hard for him to flirt with RB2 numbers.
Long-Term Upside: B+
I’ve got a take on Estime that I have yet to hear anywhere else, and it is the reason I have a higher long-term grade than many others would have. It might be a lazy comp, but I compare Estime to his former Notre Dame teammate Kyren Williams. Williams passed the eyeball test for me coming out of college, but then he had a less-than-impressive combine (especially in the 40-yard dash), which caused me to drop him in my post-combine rankings even though I still really liked the player. I feel like I can say the same thing about Estime. I liked what I saw from him in college, wasn’t wowed by him at the combine, and now I’m still holding against him, despite liking him as a football player. I’m trying to avoid making that same mistake twice. Knowing the history of Sean Payton’s offenses and running back production for fantasy purposes, I think Estime has a much higher ceiling than many others do. If he can spend this off-season working on pass blocking and catching the football – even if that only means 40 targets in a 17-game season – he could have sneaky upside down the line.
Ricky Pearsall, WR SF
Week 10 stats: four receptions on six targets for 73 yards and one touchdown.
In his third game of the season, 49ers rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall had the best game of his young career. He hauled in four passes for 73 yards, including a 46-yard touchdown in the first quarter. His six targets were tied for the third most on the team, while he amassed the second-most yardage on the team in a road win over the Buccaneers. Finally healthy, we’re seeing the first-round pick become more involved in San Francisco’s passing attack.
A former three-star recruit, Pearsall began his college career alongside Jayden Daniels and Brandon Aiyuk at Arizona State. After three seasons with the Sun Devils, Pearsall entered the transfer portal, eventually landing with Florida. In his first season as a Gator, Pearsall led the team in touchdowns and receiving yards with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. He followed that performance up with a final college season where he led the Gators in receptions and yards while finishing second in touchdowns.
Let’s assume none of us know anything about football. We don’t know how to watch film or dig into the X’s and O’s of the game, or some of the finer points and nuances that NFL players and coaches would know better than any TV analyst or fantasy football expert ever could. The clip below of C.J. Stroud’s reaction to Pearsall’s selection at 1.31 should tell you everything there is to know about Pearsall’s potential in the NFL.
If the reigning offensive rookie of the year is this upset he won’t get to throw passes your way on Sundays, you’ve probably got some high-end talent. The dynasty community was late to the party but eventually got to Stroud’s level of belief in Pearsall.
Heading into the dynasty off-season, I didn’t know much about Pearsall, but throughout the process, he became one of my favorite receivers in a stacked receiver class. I initially had him ranked as WR18 in the class. Following the combine, I bumped him up to WR7, and post-draft, he ended up as my WR5. Looking at his ADP trends, I was not alone. Pearsall was 35th overall as WR17 in February’s mock drafts. In March, he was 23/13; in April, he was 22/12; and in the final May mocks following the NFL draft, he climbed to 13th overall as WR8 in the class. Going from a fringe third-round pick to a late first-rounder is quite the climb.
Performance to Date: C+
After a delayed start to his rookie campaign due to an off-season shooting, Pearsall has played in three games so far. I’m not holding the missing time against him, so this is based on a three-game sample size. Over the last four weeks, Pearsall is 16th in scoring among rookies, including the 49ers bye week. On a point-per-game basis, he’s 13th among rookies and 41st among all wide receivers. With byes mixed in, he’s been worthy of a play in your flex each week. You’d expect a little more from a first-round draft pick, but given the totality of circumstances surrounding the start of this season, a C+ in a limited sample size seems fair.
Rookie Season Potential: B
As the year progresses, it will be fun to watch Pearsall develop in this offense. The return of Christian McCaffrey probably eats up a handful of targets that might have otherwise headed Pearsall’s way. That is probably offset by McCaffrey’s mere existence, as Pearsall is probably an afterthought in the mind of opposing defensive coordinators as long as CMC is in the lineup. So, despite the fact that he’ll probably see fewer targets, Pearsall will probably benefit from seeing higher-quality targets. My guess is that he’ll be a high-end WR3 over the next seven weeks, keeping him in your starting lineups through the fantasy playoffs.
Long-Term Upside: A-
Not that there isn’t a massive list of first-round receivers who have been epic failures in the NFL, but in a Shanahan-led offense, Pearsall should be a viable fantasy option for the foreseeable future. Assuming Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey remain with the team over the next few seasons, it is difficult to imagine a path to high-end volume for Pearsall. However, that list is packed full of players with injury concerns. If any of them were to miss time, those vacated targets would be floating out there somewhere in the fantasy ether, with Pearsall likely beneficiary of any of their absences. He should be a reliable fantasy producer for years to come, with the occasional splash weeks mixed in.
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Drake Maye and Kimani Vidal - December 28, 2024
