Dynasty Decision: TJ Hockenson
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
TJ Hockenson, TE MIN
Hockenson presents one of the most intriguing cases in dynasty today. After establishing himself as a top-tier talent, he’s now at a crossroads following a late-season ACL and MCL injury. His value has plummeted, and he is unlikely to produce in 2024. Dynasty managers must now decide whether to wait out the injury dip or get out on name value alone.
Previous Performance
Coming out of Iowa, Hockenson was one of the most hyped tight-end prospects in recent memory, earning a first-round selection by the Detroit Lions in 2019. His rookie season showed promise, but his breakout in 2020 cemented him as a premier fantasy asset. That year, Hockenson hauled in 67 receptions for 723 yards and six touchdowns, finishing as the TE5 overall.
Hockenson followed up with another strong season in 2021, though injuries limited him to just 12 games. Despite the missed time, he still managed to post a respectable 61 receptions for 583 yards and four touchdowns. In 2022, a midseason trade to the Minnesota Vikings only elevated his fantasy stock. The move to Minnesota showcased his ability to thrive in a pass-heavy offense alongside Justin Jefferson, culminating in 86 receptions, 914 yards, and six touchdowns — enough to finish as the TE2.
However, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals some potential concerns. While his raw stats were impressive, Hockenson’s efficiency metrics have been less stellar. His yards per route run (YPRR) have hovered around the 1.5-1.7 mark, which, while solid, isn’t elite. Additionally, his targets per route run (TPRR) have seen slight declines, which could indicate that his target share might not be as secure as it seems.
Situation and Usage
The situation is a challenging one to project for Hockenson. The Vikings have always been a pass-heavy attack that utilized Hockenson heavily. However, they have now changed quarterback, having moved on from Kirk Cousins last season. They will be rolling with Sam Darnold under center this season, and then the recently drafted JJ McCarthy next season once he has recovered from his recent meniscus surgery.
The Vikings will likely be a little less pass-happy this season and next season than they were under Cousins, but they should still be above average in neutral game scripts. The challenge will come when trying to establish Hockenson’s place on the pecking order of targets. Justin Jefferson will, without a doubt, be the number one option. However, where previously, Hockenson was the number two option that could be ceded to Jordan Addison as he is entering his second season and could see an uptick in volume to the detriment of Hockenson.
Overall, this will be a positive situation for Hockenson, but he could see an overall downtick in raw volume. He may end up closer to the 100 target mark than the 120 target mark he’s been in the last two years. With Hockenson’s limited efficiency on his targets, any drop in volume could have a significant impact on his overall fantasy output.
Contract
Having signed a four-year $66 million extension last off-season, Hockenson is somewhat entrenched for the next few seasons. It would cost the Vikings more in dead cap if they tried to move on from the tight end before the end of the 2025 season. That is even more unlikely when you look at the relatively palatable cap hit of $14m and $15m, respectively. However, after the 2025 season, his cap hit jumps to $19.6m in 2026 with a dead cap hit of only $7.2m. This means the Vikings would save $12.4m if they moved on from him. Realistically, that could be a window to renegotiate the contract in order to reduce the cap hit for the Vikings, but it is worth noting that the contract is only truly guaranteed for the next two seasons.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the TE10 in July ADP and the 85th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a little less than a future first-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Hockenson is a player I’m not touching in redraft this season. He is unlikely to be active to start the season. Given his recent history of multiple knee ligament tears, he will struggle to be fantasy-relevant during the 2024 season. For this reason, he is a player I’d struggle to roster on a true competitor, as he is unlikely to help you win a title this season. However, if you’re looking towards 2025, he is a very appealing player and is criminally undervalued right now.
When healthy, Hockenson is inefficient, but he is a target sponge and a check-down option consistently. That has significant fantasy value, and he will likely settle back in as a top-five option in the position from the 2025 season and beyond. If you can afford not to gain any production in the short term, then he is the perfect target. For the price of less than a single first-round pick, you can acquire a difference-maker at a very challenging position, too. We’ve also seen players produce well into their thirties at the tight end position, and having only just turned 27, he should have at least five more productive seasons.
If you’re looking to acquire Hockenson, you will have to be smart about how you approach it. Some will still value him as a top-five player at the position, while others may value him closer to his ADP. Hockenson’s value will differ from league to league based on how people view him.
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