Dynasty Decision: Matthew Stafford
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
Through the past 15 seasons, Stafford has been a solid and reliable fantasy contributor who has put up some fantastic seasons but has never been regarded as a genuinely elite performer. Now, as the end of his career draws near and his value has significantly reduced, does that make him a great value or an asset you should be looking to offload?
Previous Performance
As the number one pick out of Georgia, Stafford struggled to stay on the field for the first two seasons. However, he flashed the natural talent and incredible arm strength that warranted his draft selection. From the 2011 season, he put together a great run of six top-ten seasons out of seven. He combined with Calvin Johnson to create one of the most potent passing offenses in the league.
However, from 2018 to 2020, Stafford struggled with numerous injuries while the Lions struggled as a franchise. He still had the fantastic arm talent to make every throw, but he didn’t have the receiving weapons or offensive play caller to put up the gaudy numbers of his earlier career.
Following the 2020 season, there was a mutual parting of ways. Stafford was traded to the Rams and immediately combined with Sean McVay and Cooper Kupp to a phenomenal season where he finished as the QB5 overall and led the Rams to a Super Bowl title. Unfortunately, the Super Bowl hangover was real, and Stafford played only nine games due to a lingering neck issue. Despite retirement rumors, he battled back to a solid fantasy season in 2023, even with his star receiver Kupp missing significant time. This was primarily due to the emergence of superstar rookie Puka Nacua.
Situation and Usage
Stafford finds himself in one of the most desirable situations across the entire league. He is paired with one of the most inventive and all-around play-callers in McVay, while playing behind an imposing offensive line that the Rams have spent considerable resources rebuilding. All of that is before we mention the studs in the receiver room, Kupp and Nacua.
During his tenure in the league, McVay has shown that he can consistently command an elite offense and get them to play above their talent level. Since he joined the Rams, Stafford has consistently increased his completion percentage without drastically adjusting his average depth of target. He thrives in the field’s intermediate areas, attempting 68.4% of his passes 0-19 yards downfield. He was 35th of 37th in percentage of attempts behind the line of scrimmage and 25th of 40th in percentage of passes attempted greater than twenty yards downfield. His ability to thrive while not taking the easy check-downs shows just how talented Stafford is. With a healthy Kupp combined with Nacua and Kyren Williams, this Rams offense could be among the best in the league.
Contract
Earlier this off-season, Stafford restructured his contract to align him more closely with the new quarterback contracts. He will have a cap hit close to $50m in each of the next three seasons. From a dead cap standpoint, the Rams could save $13.5m by moving on from Stafford at the end of 2025, but realistically, that won’t happen. Yes, Stafford is advancing in years but I would be shocked if he isn’t the starting quarterback for the Rams for at least the next two seasons.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the QB22 in July ADP and the 76th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a little less than a future first-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Age at quarterback is one of the most overvalued aspects of any player in dynasty. The market obsesses over age and lusts after young quarterbacks who can be on your roster for 15 to 20 years. Far too quickly are quarterbacks in their 30s cast aside while they still have the potential to produce fantasy numbers for the next four or five years.
Stafford is precisely that type of player. He is valued as the QB22 currently but will be the nailed-on starter for the Rams for at least the next two seasons based on his contract, but realistically, much longer than that. And despite that QB22 value, he will outproduce that as he has done every single season of his career where he has played over ten games.
The fact that you can acquire a player who will likely produce fring QB1 or high-end QB2 numbers for the price of a single first-round pick is egregious. Yes, you will likely not have a resale window, but he will still be a reliable fantasy starter for the next four to five years. As a contender in a superflex league, you need at least three competent starters to allow you to compete, cover bye weeks, and have some injury cover.
Stafford is the perfect QB3 to roster as he can produce great numbers while not having the cost to acquire to match. In a rebuild situation, I wouldn’t be too fast to sell Stafford off cheaply; he will likely have significant production when you turn your roster around. I would be looking to auction him off in the hope you can acquire more than a single first-round pick, but like everything in a dynasty, when you’re trying to sell, timing and how you approach it is everything.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - January 2, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 26, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 19, 2024
