Dynasty Decision: Courtland Sutton
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
Sutton has teased fantasy stardom several times during his career. However, he has never broken through and instead has produced fairly middling fantasy numbers. With a new quarterback under center and Sean Payton steering the offense, could Sutton finally pay off his potential with a big season, or is he nothing more than an expensive roster clogger?
Previous Performance
As an early second-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, there were high expectations for Sutton, and as a rookie, he stepped in as the leading receiver in playing time. However, despite that, he only saw 79 targets and finished as the WR49. In his sophomore season, he took a big step forward, finishing as the WR20, commanding an impressive 115 targets, and stretching the field as a true outside X receiver. Unfortunately, he did not get the opportunity to build on that campaign as he tore his ACL and MCL in week two, ending his 2020 season and also impacting his 2021 season as he was slow to recover, combined with the ongoing quarterback issues in Denver.
In the 2022 off-season, the Broncos swung for the fences after years of quarterback struggles and acquired Russell Wilson via trade. Despite the considerable price paid in both draft capital and contract, Wilson struggled, and so did the Broncos’ offense. First-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett didn’t make it to the end of the season, and as such, the production Sutton was able to put up was yet again disappointing. After the disappointments of the 2022 season, the Broncos took another extensive swing trading for head coach Sean Payton, who was tasked with bringing the best out of Wilson. Sadly, that didn’t happen, and although Sutton rebounded with a WR35 finish, he didn’t put up the numbers he was capable of.
Situation and Usage
Sutton has had an incredibly challenging career with the surrounding talent. He has moved from lousy quarterback to lousy quarterback. Despite having plenty of natural talent, he has consistently underperformed in fantasy as the offense struggles to move the ball.
The Broncos made yet another aggressive move this off-season, drafting Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick. As the most experienced college quarterback of all time, he should be able to hit the ground running. The hope is that his experience and Payton’s genius could revive this Broncos offense. If that happens, that should present more scoring opportunities for Sutton to thrive.
The slight concern for Sutton is how this offense will function. He has thrived as an outside deep ball receiver who can win in contested catch situations or over the top. Nix was two very different quarterbacks in college; with Auburn, he pushed the ball downfield and created out of structure with an aDOT of 9.4, 8.6, and 9.0, respectively. He got the ball out much quicker with Oregon and had a significantly lower aDOT of 7.4 and 6.8. If he plays like he did with Oregon, this could dramatically lower the ceiling for Sutton’s fantasy production.
Contract
Contractually, this could look very different very quickly. Sutton is currently unhappy with his contract and is pushing for an extension from the Broncos. He signed a four-year extension in November 2022, and that contract has now entered the later stages, where the guarantees have begun to run out. He has a $17.4 and $17.8m cap hits the next two years, respectively, but only $9.65m of that is guaranteed.
The market for receivers has massively changed over the past two years, and the elite options at the position are now commanding north of $30m per year. I expect Sutton to sign a small extension this off-season, with another year or two added to the end, with an average salary around the $23m per year that Calvin Ridley signed this off-season. If that happens, he will be a safe and secure dynasty asset for the next two to three years.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR57 in June ADP and the 147th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 3.05 in the 2024 draft or a couple of future third-round picks in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Sutton is not a player who will win you a league or get you any plaudits from your league mates for acquiring him. However, it’s hard to turn down his potential at the price of a single third-round pick or even a couple. Yes, Sutton has largely disappointed for fantasy throughout his career, but given the lack of other weapons in Denver, he will likely see north of 100 targets this season. One hundred targets in a Payton-led offense is enough for at least WR3 numbers. That is worth far more than the paltry price he currently charges.
If you’re looking for a cheap option to bolster your wide receiver depth, Sutton is almost perfect, given his price and potential production.
If you’re not looking to contend, then Sutton is likely a roster clogger who you may struggle to sell. However, you may have more luck in-season once he is putting up points. I wouldn’t sell for a bunch of thirds or later, but in season, you may be able to attach a third-round pick to him in order to acquire a second-rounder.
Sutton is only 28 years old and the clear target leader in an offense. He should outproduce his price point consistently over the next two years, and he is far too good of a player to be cast on the dynasty scrap heap yet.
- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Rasheen Ali - June 29, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Courtland Sutton - June 28, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Tony Pollard - June 21, 2024
