Dynasty GAAP Memo: DK Metcalf
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose
The purpose of this memo is to evaluate the dynasty value of Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf.
Background
In the NFL, the most successful teams have a clear-cut “identity”. From team to team this can vary. You can be a high-flying offense and throw all over the field like the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes or you can be a team that tries to establish the run like the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson.
In business, a company’s identity is often defined by its core competencies. Core competencies are the resources and capabilities that comprise the strategic advantages of a business. A modern management theory argues that a business must define, cultivate, and exploit its core competencies in order to succeed against the competition. In the examples above, Mahomes as a passer and the creative mind of Andy Reid presents the Chiefs a with ‘strategic’ advantage and it is easy to understand the team’s success passing the football. Similarly, Lamar Jackson’s dynamic running ability and Derek Henry’s freak size and athletic profile at running back clearly illustrate what the Ravens want their identity to be.
This is something that dynasty managers should pay attention to. If a team like the Ravens start to invest heavily in pass catchers, pass blockers, and move on from Lamar Jackson to a more prototypical pocket passer, that would be something to pay attention to. This might indicate an evolution of the Raven’s identity as a football team and a pivot in a core competency.
One of the teams that might have indicated a change in approach during the 2024 off-season are the Seattle Seahawks. During this, they moved on from Pete Carrol after a 13-year tenure with the team (2010 to 2023). During Carrol’s tenure in Seattle, the team was a run-first offense. He believes in establishing a strong running game to control the clock, wear down the opposing defense, and set up play-action passes. For his replacement, Seattle hired former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald as the franchise’s ninth head coach.
For casual dynasty owners, this might indicate a consistency in the team’s core competencies and they intend to maintain a similar approach. However, savvy owners will identify the hiring of Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator as an indicator of a very different conclusion. Grubb spent the last two years at the University of Washington as their offensive coordinator. During the 2023 and 2022 seasons, the Huskies passed for the second and first most yards of any FBS, respectively. This would indicate that the Seahawks might have an offensive more similar to the Chiefs.
This memo will focus on evaluating the impacts of this change on its most valuable dynasty wide receiver in Seattle, Metcalf (DLF WR18).
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the Industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based on real dynasty startups.
Analysis
To evaluate Seattle’s change in core competency, we need to identify possible indicators that could affect Metcalf’s dynasty value. I evaluated various factors below:
Increase Pass Attempts:
As I mentioned previously, the Washington Huskies were one of the most successful passing offenses in the FBS. In 2023, they were first in yards and second in attempts. I would imagine that Grubb will bring a similar approach to Seattle. The table below summarizes pass attempts for 2023 and 2022 when Grubb served as the team’s offensive coordinator.
Comparably, the Seattle Seahawks have historically been towards the bottom of the NFL in pass attempts during Russell Wilson’s tenure due to his historical efficiency and rush-first offense. More recently, they have been more average compared to the rest of the NFL in pass attempts under Geno Smith. The table below summarizes Smith’s two years as a starter in Seattle.
At first glance, an average of 8 more pass attempts per game might seem lackluster. However, if you extrapolate this over the course of the NFL’s 17-game season, that gives rise to 143 targets. For context, 140 targets are often a threshold to finish as a fantasy football WR1. Indicating that this coaching hire could give rise to a material increase in pass attempts in 2024 and beyond.
Personnel Similarities:
In evaluating the opportunity in Seattle, Grubbs already was identifying similarities between the Huskies and Seahawks. Earlier this off-season, Grubbs discussed Metcalf and compared him to Rome Odunze.
He said: “You got the big-bodied ‘X’ in DK and Rome. I think that’s the thing that was amazing about Rome, and when I watch DK, I think the same thing – these guys are not just (straight-line) runners.”
“These guys are (running) crossing routes, they’re middle-field open, they’re sitting in zones. They’re really versatile for big guys.”
When you examine their profiles more closely, the similarities are uncanny. The table below summarizes.
Based on these metrics, Metcalf is bigger, faster, more athletic, with a more proven NFL track record. If Grubbs himself is projecting him to slot into that role, sign me up. The only metric above that Odunze beats Metcalf on is his 2023 target share. Even this metric is indicating that we could see Metcalf’s target share increase in 2024. A gentle reminder that in that role, Odunze had 87 catches, 1,553 yards, and 13 TDs in 2023 prior to being selected ninth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft to the Chicago Bears.
Projections:
If we combine the observations above and project the Huskies and Seahawks’ average pass attempts and target share for X receivers for both 2023 and 2022 on Metcalf’s career averages, this extrapolates to approximately 89 receptions and 1,285 yards. See the calculation below:
The 1,285 yards above are comparable to Nico Collins (1,297 yards) and Brandon Aiyuk (1,342 yards) who both are a similar age and finished as WR12 and WR14 in PPR. The kicker on top is Metcalf’s 10+ TD upside. He has done this twice in his career and Odunze’s 13 TDs in 2023 in Grubb’s offense even further corroborates that upside.
Conclusion
While I do expect some variability between the projections above and reality (mainly because of Michael Penix vs Geno Smith), I do think it creates a picture that Metcalf might be undervalued in dynasty at WR18 according to DLF. The table below of Metcalf’s ADP indicates that his ADP today (June 2024) at 34.5 is lower than his ADP a year ago 26.17 (June 2023). While some of this value decline might be due to age (25 vs. 26), Metcalf still is young and is a dynasty asset that I want to build around, especially with the change in offensive approach in 2024.
In my leagues this off-season, I have been trying to obtain Metcalf as I believe he is slightly undervalued as the market has not accounted for the Seahawks’ change in core competency. In rankings, he is often in the tier with the players below and I would easily add a late-round rookie pick for a Metcalf swap:
- Tee Higgins (WR19): Higgins has never finished higher than WR18 in his career. Meanwhile, Metcalf is a similar age and has three finishes higher than WR16 (one of which was a WR1 finish) on his resume. While Higgins’ has upside after what seems to be his final year for the Bengals, it’s challenging to find a better opportunity than Metcalf’s in 2024.
- Jordan Addison (WR23): Addison’s production in 2023 was supported by flukey TDs, Justin Jefferson’s injury, and Kirk Cousins. All of which are either gone or unlikely to occur in 2024. If your league mates are blinded by the youth, I would gladly take the more proven and prototypical Metcalf.
- Michael Pittman (WR16): While I do like Pittman, I believe he has more questions than Metcalf with Anthony Richardson at the helm. He is a question mark as a passer and hinders TD upside due to his big frame and rushing ability at the goal line. I believe you likely could do a one-for-one swap or even potentially get something on top of Metcalf.
Additionally, I would easily send any mid to late first-round rookie pick for Metcalf.
“I’m a candy-type person. I eat one meal a day, drink one coffee and eat like three full bags of candy.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: DK Metcalf - June 27, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Quarterbacks And The Indirect Cash Flow - June 13, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Rookie Wide Receiver Volatility - May 17, 2024
