2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Adonai Mitchell
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Adonai Mitchell
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Indianapolis Colts
College Team: Texas
Draft Status: Round 2, 52nd overall
Talent
Adonai Mitchell Combine Results:
- Height: 6′ 2″
- Weight: 205 lbs
- Arm: 32 3/8“
- Hand: 9”
- 40-yard dash: 4.34
- 10-yard split: 1.48
- Vertical Jump: 39.5”
Courtesy of RAS.
The raw talent that Mitchell possesses is plain to see for everyone with a pair of eyes. He’s big, fast, and ultra-athletic. He absolutely dominated the combine in February, posting a 9.99 RAS score and finishing fifth all-time out of 3,402 WRs since 1987. This athleticism is what NFL GMs are always looking for in wide receivers but it’s not the only factor in drafting a player as evidenced by his slide to the end of the second round.
Opportunity
Courtesy of 4for4 Depth Charts.
Indianapolis is an intriguing landing spot for Mitchell as he transitions into his pro career with definite pros and cons. It’s not a completely empty WR room but there are few real players to compete with for a role in this offense. Michael Pittman Jr has established himself as one of the best WRs in the NFL and agreed to a three-year $70 million extension this off-season with the Colts which ensures he is the WR1 in Indy through the 2026 season.
Behind Pittman is the real unknown. Josh Downs was good last year in the slot and expects to reprise that role in 2024. However, that’s not really a role for Mitchell’s skillset; instead, he will most likely be competing with Alec Pierce for the other outside WR role on this offense. While Pierce has been in Indy for two seasons, those two years have been fairly lackluster and have resulted in a total of 1,107 yards and four touchdowns. Pierce was originally drafted to be an athletic, outside, deep threat, but the arrival of AD Mitchell, a player who is better at all those things, leads me to believe that the Colts are ready to move on from Pierce.
Risk
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
You might be asking yourself: “Why did one of the most athletic wide receivers of all time fall late into the second round?” It all comes down to the risk surrounding Mitchell’s prospect profile.
Mitchell is the prototypical high-ceiling, low-floor player. His athleticism and highlight-reel ability gives him a super high ceiling but there is also large bust potential in his game. For starters, he had only 93 catches for 1,405 yards and 11 touchdowns in his entire college career. Some of that was due to injuries, but most of it was his inability to earn targets surrounded by other good players. If he couldn’t earn targets in college, it’s hard to imagine him earning targets next to Michael Pittman and Josh Downs.
Not only is Mitchell’s raw production lackluster, but some of his analytic and efficiency metrics are concerning as well. He only recorded a career yards per route run of 1.68 which is below average for just your run-of-the-mill college wide receiver let alone a highly-rated NFL draft prospect. While his film includes tantalizing, acrobat plays, there are often large stretches of games where he is seemingly uninterested in the events around him.
Finally, there is some risk associated with his position in this Indianapolis offense. While many believe that the Colts will see a big jump in year two under coach Shane Steichen with a healthy Anthony Richardson, I’m not sure what the passing volume will look like for Mitchell. This should be a fairly run-heavy approach with Jonathan Taylor and Richardson in the backfield, but even when they do pass, there may not be a lot of opportunities for Mitchell when Pittman has had 124 or more targets in each of the last three seasons and Downs just earned 94 targets himself in his rookie season.
All of this doesn’t even include the reports of character concerns leading up to the draft and also the reports that he does not handle his diabetes well. I won’t give either of these much credence as Colts GM Chris Ballard seemed to shut both concerns down following the draft. Putting major stock on either of those stories is silly, but I think they each deserve 1% of skepticism. Mitchell already has on-field production concerns, these are just the cherry on top of a risky prospect profile.
Market
Courtesy of DLF’s May ADP.
Even with all of those concerns listed above, I still feel okay with Mitchell at his current price. Immediately following the NFL Draft, there were rookie drafts in which I saw him go at the 2.02 or 2.03 which I thought was way too early. However, now that it seems like he is settling into the middle of the second round I can stomach this value. I think he and Ja’Lynn Polk are a coin flip, and with the news of a potential Kyren Williams foot injury, I’d probably take Blake Corum over Mitchell at this time. I’m sure that will play out in ADP over the summer depending on the severity of the injury.
Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
With Mitchell’s risky profile, I think his trade market is incredibly team-dependent. If you’re a team looking to compete and don’t want to take on a volatile prospect, I think he can easily be flipped for an older, proven asset. I can almost guarantee every league will have a handful of managers who are willing to take a shot on Mitchell’s upside.
There are a few WRs in Mitchell’s price range who I think are realistic in a trade. Currently, he is the WR48 according to DLF’s May Superflex ADP. Here are some WRs just above him: Chris Godwin WR43, Christian Kirk WR44, and Calvin Ridley WR46. All three of those WRs will outscore Mitchell over the next two seasons and can most likely be obtained by a simple swap, or only adding a little bit on top to get the job done.
On the other hand, if you have a young team that is nowhere near competing, I’d be willing to roll the dice with a late second-round rookie pick to try and hit on his massive upside.
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