Dynasty Running Back Danger Rankings: 24-17
The NFL Draft is finally upon us and we again have a strange situation brewing at the running back position. This particular draft seems to be full of elite receiving prospects but few ultra-elite runners. We’ve witnessed the running back position lose value in both fantasy and reality over the years and it’s safe to expect a few of your favorite rookies to slip to day three, yet again. Still, the current landscape isn’t so safe, either. Let’s look at the NFL’s current depth charts and assess the current backfields in danger of being usurped by younger talent in this year’s draft and assess some value for the future.
A team unlikely to draft a running back means their current starter would rank low on this “danger scale,” while a team almost certain to draft a running back means their current back is very dangerous to own right now. We’ll go in reverse order, meaning these are some of the “safer” backs to own in dynasty leagues. Remember, this is not a ranking of the value of these backs, only their danger level. In short, the lower their number, the less likely they are to lose value at the end of this month.
Remember as well, this is the worst time to trade for a running back because you simply never know what their team will do in the NFL Draft. If you’re committed to trading for one, look for a safe one and that’s within the range where we continue today.
24.) James Cook, RB BUF
Cook was finally given the reigns last season and performed admirably, rushing for 1,122 yards, catching 44 passes, posting 445 more receiving yards and scoring six total touchdowns. While the touchdowns are hard to predict, every other statistical category looked good last year. The Bills have lost a lot this off-season (and that’s putting it mildly), so it’s hard to see them spending draft capital on a running back.
23.) De’Von Achane, RB MIA
Who really is the starter in Miami? Is it Achane or Raheem Mostert? I think you can make the case for either, though Mostert is certainly not in the team’s long-term plans in the same way Achane is. Both were spectacular last season as Mostert scored a whopping 18 touchdowns on the ground and Achane ran for 800 yards on a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry average. Regardless, the Dolphins are locked and loaded at the position and seem unlikely to add anyone meaningful moving forward in the NFL Draft this season.
22.) Travis Etienne, RB JAX
Through his two seasons with the Jags, Etienne has been good but far from great. It seems you’re going to get right around 1,000-1,100 rushing yards, 50 or so catches, another 400-500 receiving yards and a decent number of touchdowns from him each season. Again, those are good but hardly spectacular numbers. However, at just 25 years of age and with first round draft capital used on him just two seasons ago, it’s hard to look at Jacksonville as a likely destination for the services of a running back from the NFL Draft.
21.) Najee Harris, RB PIT
Again, this list isn’t a ranking of who the best running backs are, it’s a list of those who seem to be the safest. Harris still has to deal with Jaylen Warren (or vice versa) but the Steelers seem to be pretty content with using these two in some kind of “thunder and lightning” approach. With the emergence of Warren last year and a decent little late season surge from Harris, it seems Pittsburgh would be another unlikely destination for a running back this season.
20.) Kyren Williams, RB LAR
If this was a listing of who the best running backs are, Williams wouldn’t be in this spot. The only reason he’s not with the “safe of the safe” is the fact Sean McVay has been traditionally unpredictable when it comes to the position. Williams was fantastic when healthy last season but it wouldn’t be a total stunner to see the Rams take another running back just to load up to protect themselves from Williams possibly getting injured again.
19.) Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
The Eagles made the splash of all splashes at the running back position in free agency this year as they signed Barkley away from the Giants. It seems Barkley is truly poised for a serious bounce-back season now that he’ll be deployed in an offense known for getting playmakers in space. However, a lengthy injury history could give the Eagles some pause when they’re thinking about just ignoring the position in the upcoming draft. There has been some speculation they could use a pick on someone to help out, though it’s hard to see that “someone” taking too much time away from their prized free agent acquisition.
18.) Josh Jacobs, RB GB
Speaking of surprises, nobody could have predicted the Packers were going to sign Josh Jacobs on the first day of free agency (actually, the Packers front office could have predicted that, so I guess it’s not nobody). Still, this was a stunning development as Green Bay signed Jacobs, then let long-time starter Aaron Jones bail in free agency and land with the rival Vikings. The Packers already brought back the disappointing AJ Dillon, so it’s unlikely they target another running back. Still, Jacobs wasn’t the same player he was two years ago and Green Bay could conceivably try to protect themselves just a bit.
17.) Rachaad White, RB TB
As we reach the middle of this list, we find Rachaad White and that seems about right. With 990 rushing yards, 64 catches, 649 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, White finally arrived in dynasty leagues. However, there are some red flags with him. While the numbers are great on paper, White only averaged 3.6 yards per carry and looked rather ordinary at times. The Bucs could simply run it back with him or look to pair him with more of a first and second down bruiser. At this point, it seems like this could go either way. If I have White, I’m keeping him right now. However, we’re also reaching the range of players who I also simply won’t be trading for at the moment, either.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
- Lineup Advice: Playoff Time - December 19, 2024
- The Dynasty Aftermath: Trades Gone Wrong - December 18, 2024
- Lineup Advice: Week 15 - December 15, 2024
