Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 1-4
As we prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft, we now have had time to digest the Scouting Combine and pro day events, so what does the running back landscape look like in 2024? Unlike past years, where there were some clearcut top dogs in the draft, we are left guessing what GMs are thinking about this class.
This year the running back class might be more up in the air than any year I can remember in my last 15 years of playing dynasty fantasy football. Draft capital and landing spots are always important, but it might swing where this class of RBs goes in fantasy drafts more than in any year I can remember.
I’m going to run down my top RBs in the class as well as go through my favorite sleepers in this series. I will try to help you analyze and rank the rookie running backs in this year’s draft and decide where to take them in your rookie drafts.
Why should you listen to me? What are my credentials you ask? Good question. Before writing for DLF, I had extensive experience as a sports journalist covering top-level high school football, Division 1 college football in the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC, and I also spent time covering the NFL. After that, I spent seven years as a high school varsity running backs coach at my alma mater among other schools. I have learned what characteristics make elite running backs and what causes players to not reach their potential.
I have spent the last few years playing in CFF, C2C, and Devy leagues to get a better grasp of the players coming out of college before they come into the NFL. As is the case with any evaluator, I have my hits and misses. But I am confident in my assessment of these players and their possible success in the NFL.
Now I would like to introduce you to the grading system for this year’s rankings. This will help you to see where I rank the rookie running backs compared to their ADP on DLF. Below is the ranking system I will be using as well as each grade’s definition.
Grading System:
- A = Elite – Early to late first-round NFL pick
- B = NFL starter – Day two selection, second or third-round pick
- C = RBBC, needs an opportunity – Day three selection, fourth or fifth-round pick
- D = Backup or Specialty back – Day three selection, sixth or seventh-round pick
- F = Longshot – Late pick or undrafted free agent
Trey Benson, RB Florida State
Rookie ADP RB1
The first running back off the board in the NFL Draft will likely be the first RB selected in fantasy drafts. But the current RB1 as far as ADP on DLF is Trey Benson. I have to agree with the people. He is my RB1. I have had him as the top RB in this class since the end of the 2023 college season.
Benson dealt with some injuries early in his career at Oregon. He later transferred to Florida State. In his two years with the Seminoles, Benson showed flashes of an RB who could be very successful at the NFL level. He rushed for more than 900 yards each season and a total of 25 touchdowns, while being named second-team All-ACC both seasons.
Those numbers might not jump off the screen at you, which I can understand. But Benson has a lot of tread left on the tires. FSU didn’t overuse him in their wide-open offensive system.
Benson has the prototypical size teams are looking for at 6-0, 216 pounds. He crushed the combine, running a 4.39-second 40-yard dash with a 1.52 10-yard split, 33.5-inch vertical jump, and a 10-2 broad jump.
Benson has never been a bell-cow RB in his career, but the NFL isn’t looking for those anymore. Benson can be productive with 15-20 touches a game. He has shown great balance and the ability to bounce off of tackles, while showing a nice burst on the second level after contact.
Benson has underrated hands and catches the ball better than his overall numbers show. He runs a bit upright but can lower his pad level when he needs to and burst through a tackle. The cherry on top is he has never fumbled in college, not once.
GRADE: A-
Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas
Rookie ADP RB2
Many people would probably have Jonathon Brooks as the top RB in this draft class if it wasn’t for the ACL tear he suffered late in the season. The good news is doctors are saying he should be back by the start of the NFL season, so Brooks hopefully won’t have to take a complete redshirt year as a rookie.
Brooks sat behind top-ten pick Bijan Robinson and fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson at Texas in 2022, but he burst onto the scene last year. He was a second-team All-Big 12 selection with over 1,100 yards and 10 TDs.
Only 20 years old, Brooks is one of the youngest RBs in this draft class. At 6-0, 216 pounds, he has good size and speed. He didn’t participate in the NFL Combine or a pro day because of his injury, so the numbers on him are unofficial.
Brooks is silky smooth. He bursts through the hole and makes cuts with ease. He showed a solid receiving profile in his one season as a starter, showing he could be a three-down back in the NFL.
He could easily be the first RB selected in this draft. If that happens, his fantasy stock will skyrocket.
GRADE: B+
Jaylen Wright, RB Tennessee
Rookie ADP RB3
Wright is currently RB3 on DLF. He isn’t in my top five, but let’s take a look at the Tennessee product.
He showed out at the combine with a 4.38-second 40-yard dash. A 38-inch vertical jump and 11-2 broad jump showed how explosive he can be. Even though Wright has the look of a speed back, he measured in at 5-10, 210 pounds at the combine. He rushed for over 1,000 yards last season with an impressive 7.4 yards per carry.
He struggles as an inside-the-tackles runner. His skills really pop when he can run stretch plays and get outside, which allows him to use his speed as he is a much more straight-line runner.
Wright is a big play waiting to happen, but teams will have to live with the negative plays in between the splash plays. Landing on a team with a stretch and zone running scheme will help to accentuate his abilities as a runner.
He has decent hands and could work as a third-down back in the NFL. He would absolutely benefit from a prime situation like De’Von Achane got last year with Miami. We will have to wait and see if Wright gets blessed with a similar cush landing spot.
GRADE: C+
Braelon Allen, RB Wisconsin
Rookie ADP RB4
Allen was ultra-productive early in his career at Wisconsin. As a 17-year-old freshman, he rushed for 1,268 yards and 12 touchdowns with a 6.8 yards per carry average. As a sophomore, he added another 1,242 yards and 11 TDs.
Those early numbers made Allen a devy darling in fantasy. However, as a junior with a new coaching staff that wanted to emphasize the passing game, he regressed to 984 yards rushing, but caught a career-best 28 passes for 132 yards.
Allen is a physically imposing RB at 6-1, 235 pounds. At the combine, he had an impressive 26 reps on the bench press, a 32-inch vertical jump, and a 9-9 broad jump. He declined to run the 40-yard dash at the combine and his pro day, fueling speculation about how fast or slow he really is on the field. Judging from his film, most analysts have him running a high 4.5 or mid 4.6 second 40. If that is true it shouldn’t be a huge hindrance in the NFL.
Allen seems like the type of RB who needs to land with the right team to maximize his abilities. He takes some time to get going, so he needs a solid offensive line to give him some starting room and to build up momentum to run over smaller players.
He struggles at times to play as physically as his size suggests. One of his best traits is he is the youngest RB in the class. He just turned 20 in January. The upside is there, and he has time to grow in the NFL.
People want him to be the next Derrick Henry, but to me, he is Henry-lite at best. A prime landing spot with a great offensive line would raise his grade for me, but if he ends up on a bad team with bad offensive line play, it could be ugly early on.
Allen might need the right landing spot more than any other top RB in this draft class. Fantasy managers love him, but do NFL GMs? I’m not sure. Allen has the feeling of an RB the fantasy community thinks should be a second-round pick, but the NFL might not take until the fourth round.
GRADE: B-
- Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 13+ - April 22, 2024
- Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 9-12 - April 19, 2024
- Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 5-8 - April 16, 2024
