Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Middle Tier
Whether I’m the yin to his yang, the heads to his tails, or perhaps just the other side of the pillow, I’m authoring this miniseries as a supplement to my colleague Tyler Justin Karp, who is looking at the Forgotten Dynasty Youth. You might think I drew the short straw here, given that veterans are often persona non grata in a largely ageist dynasty culture. However, to me, veterans represent a very important subset of football players, as often times you can find bargains relative to the shiny new toys.
So how am I defining veterans? It’s a bit of a gray area. You can use years in the league, age, or wear and tear, with the latter particularly important at the running back position. However, we already know that players like Davante Adams and Mike Evans have relatively lower ADPs as compared to younger players who produce similarly solely due to their age, but that doesn’t mean they’re “forgotten.” So using age or any other single metric doesn’t seem appropriate to me. But one way or another these will be guys who have been around the block at least a few times, and who I think may have fallen a bit off the radar.
Where there will be structure is in the tiers, which will be threefold and as follows:
- Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
- Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
- Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)
I’ll be looking at four players per tier, and you can find my thoughts on the Top Tier here. Let’s continue with the Middle Tier!
David Montgomery, RB DET
ADP: 88.2
Age: 26 years
Years in League: Five
Going solely by the base numbers, Montgomery had the best statistical season of his career. Despite missing three games and parts of others, he had the second-most rushing yards of his five seasons in the league, and his 13 rushing scores were five more than his previous high. Perhaps more importantly, his 4.6 YPA bettered his prior best by 0.3 YPC.
But what’s even more interesting are the advanced statistics.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
While his broken tackles were middling compared to his years with the Bears, he appears to have been afforded more room to work. This is shown by his 2.3 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att), and probably also in his yards before contact per reception (YPC/R). The latter may seem counterintuitive as a negative number, but to me this shows he was given the ball behind the line of scrimmage and therefore behind his sublime offensive line, which allowed him to gain a greater more head of steam, resulting in greater yards after contact (YAC/R). For a grinding, wear-you-down type of running back often tasked with hammering into the line, this yielded massive dividends for his bottom line.
Along with the continuity in a league-best offensive line, I wouldn’t expect much else to change in 2024 as the Lions attempt to run it back to the NFC Championship game. Head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson have molded a system that rewards both thunder and lightning, with both Montgomery and teammate Jahmyr Gibbs finishing as top-17 PPR ball carriers despite both missing time. But while Gibbs has understandably flourished, Montgomery has received a less enthusiastic ADP reception.
Since October Montgomery has lost about a round of value, barely above where he landed following his excellent start to the season. Perhaps owners are anticipating Gibbs getting a larger slice of the pie, which is not unreasonable – but I think the Detroit staff knows what they have in both players. This means another 250+ touches should be in the cards for the veteran if he stays healthy, along with a good proportion of goal-line touches. Currently the RB26 by ADP, such a season would result in a large return on investment.
Joe Mixon, RB HOU
ADP: 94.5
Age: 27 years
Years in League: Seven
To say Mixon was in the outhouse would be disingenuous, as he was receiving ample run on an elite offense turned league average due to an injury to quarterback Joe Burrow. For his part, the former Bengal managed to ‘whelm’ his way to a finish as the PPR RB6, largely on his ability to stay healthy and aggregate touches, while scoring the ball at a decent clip and doing just enough in the passing game. But circumstances have changed, and Mixon the elder statesman now brings his experience and talents to Houston.
Make no mistake about it, this is the penthouse, especially after Wednesday’s surprising trade for receiver Stefon Diggs. The Texans are loaded at receiver and have an above-average tight end, while also sporting the best young quarterback in the league in CJ Stroud. 2023 starter Devin Singletary has left town, which means once again Mixon just needs to more or less do what’s asked and otherwise stay out of the way!
Clearly the Houston brass thinks he’s capable of being more than “just a guy,” as in addition to trading for him they extended him for a healthy sum, especially given his veteran status, with $27 million over three years and $13 million guaranteed. And while there’s an “out” after the 2025 season, Mixon seems locked into at least two years with the league’s preeminent up-and-coming team.
Contract summary courtesy of Spotrac
The March ADP provided for a minor course correction, and since January Mixon has actually climbed about 10 spots. But he’s still the RB28 per these aggregated mock drafts, which means a 2023 mid-range PPR RB1 is valued nearly two tiers lower than fantasy ceiling despite his fortunes having massively improved. Given this, he makes for a great target for teams looking to contend for the next couple of years as a shoo-in workhorse.
James Conner, RB ARI
ADP: 117.7
Age: 28 years
Years in League: Seven
Similar to how the “Top Tier” edition of this miniseries focused on receivers, this iteration is all about the running backs! It’s not terribly surprising given the 10,000-foot positional preference of the dynasty masses. But this therefore provides an avenue for cheap production at the position, and here again is another example.
But first, see the blurb about Mixon above, apply a price discount, then rinse and repeat. Because apart from being on a worse offense, though one that should improve given the likely selection of Marvin Harrison, Jr. in the upcoming NFL Draft as well as a full off-season of participation from quarterback Kyler Murray, the narrative is largely the same.
See also the blurb about Montgomery above, apply a massive clearance sale price discount, then rinse and repeat yet again. Because despite only participating in 13 games Conner was able to clear 1,000 yards rushing, while finishing just behind the Lion as the PPR RB18 (RB13 on a per-game basis). But unlike Montgomery, Conner was able to perform this feat on a poor offense with a dearth of playmakers that was missing their top signal-caller for most of the season.
It’s true Conner tends to miss some time each year, as he has been prone to soft tissue injuries. But when he’s on the field, he’s usually spinning fantasy gold and silver. Over the past two years (26 games) 42% of Conner’s contests yielded PPR RB1 finishes, and 65% were PPR RB2 or better. He won’t be confused with Christian McCaffrey, but savvy owners should buy the dip.
To that point, it shouldn’t take a lot to get the deal done, given Conner is valued as the RB35 per the March ADP. As always, any prospective deals are made between two teams, not aggregate data. But if Conner is on the roster of a team not firmly in contention, a future second round pick could likely get the job done, and should result in bolstering your RB2 or Flex position.
Jakobi Meyers, WR LV
ADP: 125.0
Age: 27 years
Years in League: Five
To me, one of the biggest misconceptions in fantasy football is that boring is bad. Meyers is a patently boring fantasy contributor, but as a virtual lock for 60+ receptions and 800+ yards, coupled with a newfound ability to actually score, he can still be useful. To that point, despite missing a game and part of another due to injury, Meyers finished the 2023 season as the PPR WR27, showing utility as a WR3 or Flex play.
But this is where the upside to being boring continues.
While Meyers was a WR3 on the season, 25% of his weekly finishes were in the WR1 range, and overall 56% were WR2 or better. To be clear there was downside, as evidenced by 38% of weeks resulting in a WR4 or worse finish, but that’s made more tolerable given the likely capital owners used to acquire Meyers. Adding onto that, a struggling offense with a rookie fourth-round pick under center also caused NFL and fantasy stalwart Davante Adams to lose nearly 400 yards and six touchdowns from his 2022 seasonal totals, implying there was only so much the receivers could control.
Turning 28 in November, Meyers still has some good football left ahead of him. Yet whether it’s due to his perceived lack of upside or otherwise boring nature, he’s being valued as a low-end WR5 as the WR56 overall. A virtual lock to outplay that value if he stays healthy, Meyers remains one of the best veteran buys in dynasty football.
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