Derrick Henry signs with Baltimore: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
The Baltimore Ravens are known for being an old school football team – they run the ball and play defense. This style of play has endeared them to their fanbase and helped them build a perennial contender. The challenge they’ve had in recent years has been keeping their running backs healthy. In fact, quarterback Lamar Jackson has led the team in rushing yards in five straight seasons. When the Ravens have been at their best, they’ve had someone like Ray Rice or Jamal Lewis leading the way (both of them led the team in rushing for five straight seasons). With players like JK Dobbins failing to stay healthy and veterans like Dalvin Cook and Melvin Gordon just not working out, Baltimore was ready to hit the reset button and make a splash in free agency. They did just that by signing former Titans running back Derrick Henry to a two-year, $16 million deal. This development has a huge impact on dynasty leagues so let’s reset the market.
Derrick Henry, RB BAL
Every once in a while, a college player delivers a season that seems almost impossible. In 2015, Henry had one of those years when he posted a ridiculous 2,219 rushing yards with 28 touchdowns at Alabama. That season featured four different games where he had at least 200 rushing yards. Henry also scored at least one touchdown in every single game and was awarded the Heisman trophy for his efforts. However, many NFL teams just didn’t think his game could translate to the NFL, so he slipped into the second round before being drafted by the Titans with the 45th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
The rest, as they say, is history.
Henry has been a dominant force ever since stepping on to the field in the Music City. He’s posted 9,502 rushing yards with 90 rushing touchdowns in his eight seasons (119 career games). He’s also added 155/1,458/3 as a receiver, which is more than most ever expected. He joined OJ Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, and Adrian Peterson (an elite list of runners if there ever was one) as running backs who have posted a 2,000-yard season as he recorded 2,027 rushing yards in 2020, Even better, he’s been the engine behind the Titans offense and has dealt with teams game planning to stop him during his entire career, yet still came out inflicting punishment instead of receiving it on most Sundays. Another 1,000 yard season will put him in the top 25 all-time in terms of rushing yards. He also trailed only Christian McCaffrey in terms of rushing yards last season, showing he still has gas in the proverbial tank.
On paper, this seems like a perfect fit. Baltimore is a run-first team with a smash-mouth approach to the game. Henry will pair with Lamar Jackson to likely form the most potent rushing attack in the game. While he is no longer the same player he once was, Henry was still more than effective last season and should have 2-3 more good years left in him. When you consider Gus Edwards was able to post 13 rushing touchdowns last year, it gets even more exciting. Henry’s dynasty ranking is almost irrelevant – he’s a short-term buy candidate for a contending team, plain and simple. His ADP should still rise with this move as the Ravens boast a scheme that seems to be perfect for his skill set and a quarterback that will need to be accounted for first in a game plan. This is one of the most exciting signings of free agency in dynasty leagues, plain and simple.
Keaton Mitchell, RB BAL
The Ravens were hoping JK Dobbins was going to be their lead back last season but a torn Achilles ruined that idea early on. It also opened the door for Mitchell, who was electric at times, rushing for 396 yards and two touchdowns on a whopping 8.4 yards per carry. While he only had 47 carries and that number is likely inflated as a result, it was still very impressive. Unfortunately, Mitchell suffered a full ACL tear in his left knee against the Jaguars in Week 15 and had to miss the remainder of the 2023 season. It’s hard to say just when Mitchell will be expected back but having Henry will mean the Ravens won’t need to rush him. At some point, he should mix in as a great change of pace back and should be looked upon as a solid dynasty hold for the time being.
Justice Hill, RB BAL
The Ravens have done what they could to make Hill into something he isn’t. In fact, they’ve likely given him more opportunities than most teams would have to establish himself as a starter in the league. At this point, it’s clear Hill just isn’t cut out for that. He should be good for around 250 rushing yards and close to the same receiving but it’s going to take a major Henry injury for Hill to be relied on as anything more than a change-of-pace runner again. His ADP chart looks like a roller coaster at Disneyland – it’s about to crest over the top of Splash Mountain and head down in the coming weeks.
Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
The addition of Henry should take some pressure off Jackson but it’s hardly going to change his style of play. The Ravens led the league in rushing yards last season and it would surprise nobody to see them do it again, especially with a battering ram starting at running back now. Jackson had another MVP season last year with 3,678 passing yards, 821 rushing yards, and 29 total touchdowns. While it would be a disappointment to many if he led the Ravens in rushing for a sixth straight season, Jackson is going to have every opportunity to be a QB1 yet again and even though Henry may take some goal line opportunities away, his addition should also free up some passing lanes. In short, this really shouldn’t affect his value moving forward.
Tony Pollard, RB TEN
I shared my thoughts on Pollard and Tyjae Spears earlier this week but it’s likely worth mentioning again. Pollard’s ADP should stop it’s downward trend now that he’s found a starting job but it’s hard to watch his performance last season and think the new job with Tennessee is going to be his alone. As for Spears, he showed some real promise last season but now has to contend with Pollard. To me, this looks like a great situation for Tennessee and a rough one for dynasty managers.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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