Joe Mixon traded to Houston: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
Back in 2017, the Cincinnati Bengals took a chance on a running back from Oklahoma in the second round of the NFL Draft. That running back had all the talent in the world but also came with a lot of baggage stemming from an ugly incident including domestic violence. It was a hot button topic at the time and likely scared a lot of teams away. In the end, the Bengals took a chance on Joe Mixon and from a production standpoint, it really paid off. Mixon has been a staple in the Bengals offense for the past seven years and a key part of a team that’s turned from a doormat to a perennial Super Bowl contender. Unfortunately, all things must come to an end and Cincinnati ended up trading Mixon to the Houston Texans this week for a seventh round draft pick. The move has some far reaching dynasty impact, so let’s re-assess some player values.
Joe Mixon, RB HOU
The compensation for Mixon obviously looks like next to nothing, which it really is. Cincinnati was planning on releasing him to get out from under his contract but the Texans were desperate for help in the backfield after losing Devin Singletary to the Giants and seeing most of the premier free agents sign with other teams. In the end, they decided to send compensation to the Bengals to ensure Mixon didn’t hit the open market, then signed him to a three-year, $27 million contract extension, including $13 million guaranteed. This kind of commitment ensures Mixon is the starting running back in Houston for the foreseeable future.
So, what are the Texans getting?
Over his seven years in the league (all with the Bengals), Mixon has posted 6,412 rushing yards, 283 catches, 2,139 receiving yards and a total of 62 touchdowns. He’s flirted with RB1 status many times as he’s posted four different 1,000-yard seasons. He’s also been criticized for being the epitome of a “good but not great” option at the position. Just last year, Mixon had just four games with single-digit fantasy points but also just five with more than 20. Many dynasty owners joked around saying, “I’ll just take the ten-to-twelve points” when evaluating their roster for the week as that was pretty much what you got every week from Mixon.
Looking forward, the Texans have a franchise quarterback in CJ Stroud and boast one of the league’s more exciting offenses. With Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell creating a solid pass-catching unit, there should be some nice opportunities for Mixon moving forward. While he may not be the same player he once was, he’s still an above average running back in the league and should post numbers consistent with that of an RB2 at the very least.
Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
Boy, things do change fast. It wasn’t too long ago when Pierce was one of the higher valued running backs in fantasy football. After all, he ran for nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie and looked like the future franchise running back in Houston. Surprisingly, the Texans added Devin Singletary to the fold last year and Pierce was mostly an afterthought, going from a solid RB2 or flex player to someone who barely saw the field. On the season, Pierce ran for just 416 yards and two touchdowns. He also added just 13 catches for 101 scoreless yards. To make matters worse, he had just three total carries in Houston’s final three games. While he should still be the backup at the moment since the rest of the depth chart includes just Gerrid Doaks and JJ Taylor, the bloom is clearly off the rose here. If Houston adds another running back in the draft, Pierce is looking at the dynasty waiver wire in most leagues since his ADP is going to keep tanking. At this point, his ADP history looks like a Kindergartener trying to draw a waterfall.
Zack Moss, RB CIN
On the other end of this transaction is Zack Moss, who signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Bengals after they moved on from Mixon. And just like that, you have your first real winner in this year’s version of free agency frenzy. Moss will slot in to the spot vacated by Mixon and could put up some nice numbers in the process as long as the Bengals don’t add a hotshot rookie to the fold. Any dynasty manager with Moss is going to be waiting on pins and needles as the rest of free agency and the NFL Draft unfolds as he suddenly finds himself in a great situation. If the Bengals don’t add a premier running back into the fold, Moss could be a solid RB2 or more next season. He was more than solid last year when he took over for Jonathan Taylor, rushing for 794 yards and five touchdowns for the Colts. He also posted at least 20 fantasy points in three of the four games he started. Buying Moss now would be ill-advised since this situation is in flux, but he has the potential to be a serious ADP riser in the next couple of months.
Chase Brown, Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams, RBs CIN
Its tough to see this group’s value going up much, though Brown has shown some real promise. The key here (much like with Moss) is seeing just who else the Bengals decide to bring on board. Stay tuned.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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