The Dynasty Impact of Mike Evans staying in Tampa Bay
There are a lot of absolutes in the world. Most like to say “death and taxes” are the only things you can count on. However, Mike Evans has changed the narrative on that as it stands to reason you can expect him to post a 1,000-yard season each and every year. In fact, Evans has set the NFL record for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with a mind-boggling ten in a row. If he does it again, it will be in the pewter of Tampa Bay as the Bucs signed Evans to a two-year extension worth $52 million this morning, with $35 million of that being guaranteed. It takes the top free agent wide receiver off the market before anyone even had a chance to sign him and affects the values of players other than Evans as well. Let’s take a quick rundown of some updated dynasty worth.
Mike Evans, WR TB
Over his ten years with Tampa Bay, Evans has been the model of health and consistency, posting 762 catches for 11,680 receiving yards and scoring 94 touchdowns. His career yardage total is 33rd all-time and another 1,000-yard season would put him close to the top-20 (uhh, don’t bet against it). His touchdown reception total is already 13th all-time as well. In other words, he’s a Hall of Famer. Many thought Evans would test the open market and he had reportedly said he was looking to land with an elite quarterback and have a shot at another Super Bowl title but it looks like he had a bit of a change of heart and will now likely end his career where it started, right in Tampa Bay.
The amazing thing about Evans again has been his consistency. Over his ten years, he’s never had fewer than 68 catches but never more than 96 in a season. In fact, six of his ten seasons have featured catch totals somewhere in the 70s. In addition, his yardage totals have been equally steady. His career low is 1,001 and his career high is 1,321. In short, you can pretty much pencil in 75 catches for 1,150 yards each season. His yearly fantasy scoring status ends up coming from his scoring chances and he’s made the most of them over the past four years, posting 46 total touchdowns and having at least 13 in three of those past four seasons as well, making him a weekly starter in any dynasty league.
Evans will enter next season having just turned 31 years old. There’s going to be a drop-off in performance at some point as Father Time is undefeated. However, Evans is currently winning that battle on the scorecard and while Father Time will never be knocked out, Evans has thrown some serious haymakers. He’s again a great target for a contending dynasty team as he currently comes in as our WR31 – a ranking that’s built strictly on his age. Having the Bucs commit this much money to him late in his career is likely going to bump that number up ever so slightly. While his days as a top-20 dynasty receiver are over in terms of rankings, it’s quite likely his days as a top-20 dynasty receiver in terms of scoring are not – this screams value if you’re one player away from making a title run.
Chris Godwin, WR TB
Dynasty managers hoping Evans would bolt and leave WR1 duties to Godwin have to be disappointed today. Godwin will again play the “Robin” role to Evans as “Batman” in the short-term and his ceiling is likely limited because of it moving forward. Godwin has been solid in his own right with three straight 1,000-yard seasons of his own. He’s also posted 285 catches the past three seasons, which is among the league leaders. Unfortunately, he’s only been able to muster ten touchdowns over the past three seasons as the Bucs have had a tendency to target Evans and their tight ends more frequently than Godwin. While you can look at this and say he’ll still have a chance to be the alpha in Tampa Bay, he’d be 30 years old himself if both players are still there when Evans’ new deal expires. He’s still a solid asset for a dynasty team but those hoping he’d one day become one of the true WR1s in the game are likely going to end up being disappointed. His value has already slipped to that of our WR30 and this really won’t help much. Godwin should be looked upon as a really solid WR3 or low-end WR2 on your dynasty roster at this point.
Baker Mayfield, QB TB
There’s a lot of speculation out there at the moment in regards to Mayfield’s future. One thing is for sure – Tampa Bay wants him back and many teams (including Tampa Bay) see him as a starter. While other teams like the Falcons, Raiders or Vikings could have some interest, Tampa Bay looks like they’re in the driver’s seat. While Mayfield may never truly be one of the game’s great quarterbacks, he did throw for more than a career high 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns (also a career best) last season in his debut with the Bucs. There seems to be mutual interest in bringing the band back together and the return of Baker certainly wouldn’t hurt the values of any skill players in Tampa Bay. It’s hard to imagine Evans signing on without some kind of an assurance Mayfield (or someone significant) wasn’t going to be at the helm as he apparently has no plans of being part of a rebuilding process. At this point, it would be a surprise to see anyone other than Mayfield under center next season and Baker himself looks like a solid QB2 or streaming option at worst.
Other Tampa Bay Receivers
This list includes Trey Palmer, David Moore, Rakim Jarrett, and Deven Thompkins at the moment, though the NFL Draft will have something to say about that in the end. We’ve seen some good moments from Palmer but his road to real dynasty relevance just hit a significant roadblock. In the end, the receivers to have on your roster are Evans, Godwin and tight end Cade Otton. Outside of that, it’s hard to get too excited about any of these players unless you’re in a pretty deep league. Palmer seems like the best of this group but again, this news doesn’t help him.
Free Agent Wide Receivers
This year’s free agent class includes players like KJ Osborn, DJ Chark, Curtis Samuel, Odell Beckham, Tyler Boyd, Darnell Mooney, Gabe Davis, Marquise Brown, Calvin Ridley, and Michael Pittman, Jr. It was clear Evans was going to be the cream of this year’s crop and that’s over now. It’s an odd year as more running backs than receivers are going to get the attention (and maybe even the money) as this year’s running back class is loaded. Still, we’ll monitor all the signings and evaluate as we go. At the very least, you can likely take Tampa Bay off the list of potential landing spots for most of this crew.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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