2024 NFL Scouting Combine: What We Should Care About
One of the biggest events of the off-season – the NFL Scouting Combine – is just around the corner and all of us dynasty degenerates are foaming at the mouth to see our favorite prospects participate. Understanding why you should care about the combine as well as what to look for is quite important and can help you get a leg up on your league mates. Today I’m here to help you get ready.
Heights and Weights
First and foremost, we finally get accurate height and weight measurements for everyone. It’s no secret that colleges and college athletes are a little loose with their measurement reporting. Players are frequently listed as taller and/or heavier than they really are. Who else remembers Wan’Dale Robinson coming in at 5’8” after being listed as 5’11” in college? It’s not normally that drastic but it happens.
Even small differences matter though. A wide receiver who is listed at 6’2” and 220 pounds in college, who looks surprisingly nimble for his size, who then measures in at 6’1” and 210 pounds, looks a little less impressive. Also, be aware of inflated weights for players where their playing weight is a cause for concern. Bryce Young weighed in at 204 pounds last year but everyone knows he packed on weight for the combine as it was widely reported his college playing weight was closer to 190 pounds.
“They Are Who We Thought They Were”
I’m sure you’ve heard this before and you’re going to hear it again: don’t ‘double count’. What this means in regards to the combine is you need to make sure you don’t overreact to player testing in a way that was expected for them, even when it’s very good. A player who is seen as having blazing straight-line speed running a very fast 40-yard dash time at the combine shouldn’t be a surprise. Be excited that they confirmed what we thought but don’t think more of them because of it. If Troy Franklin runs one of the better 40-yard dashes, so what? He’s expected to be very fast.
With that said, when a player fails to meet expectations, that’s definitely something to take note of. It’s important to remember that these days college prospects have trainers to help them get ready for this testing. If Franklin does not run fast at the combine, that’s a bad sign. Not only does it mean that he’s not as fast as we thought which changes his profile, it means there’s a chance he didn’t prepare as well as he could have for the combine which is a big event in his career. I like to think of Kayshon Boutte in 2023 who disappointed at the combine across the board. Boutte certainly didn’t look like he was as poor of an athlete as he tested on film and that was a sign to me that he didn’t prepare for the combine like he should have. Boutte has only continued to disappoint since then.
The Positional Drills
The other big part of the combine is the positional drills which, surprisingly, do have some noise to them. It’s important to remember that there’s no defense being played at the combine. Wide receivers aren’t being pressed at the line when they start a route. Quarterbacks don’t have a defensive end barreling at them as they step into a throw. Running backs are hitting holes that don’t close. These aspects need to be taken into account when watching players run through their drills.
I know some of you out there right now are thinking to yourself: “But Wyatt, I’m not a scout, I don’t know what I’m looking for.” I’m no scout either but there still are things we can pick up from watching the drills. How accurate is each quarterback’s ball placement? Is the wide receiver catching their pass in stride or do they have to slow down for the throw? Are the wide receivers and tight ends making solid hand catches or are they letting footballs get in close to their body? How sudden are the wide receivers in and out of their breaks when running routes? How quickly are the running backs reacting to the direction changes in their drills? Are the running backs covering the ball when running through “traffic” and carrying it in their outside arm when running to one side of the field?
These kinds of nuances are something you likely know to look for without realizing it just from watching football.
After the Combine
So it’s after the combine, you’ve analyzed everyone’s correct height and weight, double-checked your pre-combine evaluations against each player’s testing, and watched all the positional drills. What do you do with all that information?
We now have almost all the information we will get apart from draft capital so this is when I work to finalize my pre-NFL Draft rookie rankings tiers. We will still get some information from pro days but I take less from those as they’re done in a way to help make players more comfortable and perform better. They’re normally on their home field running through the drills with their former teammates and coaches – it’s set up for them to succeed. But we do get some updated testing numbers for players who didn’t do certain tests at the combine which we need.
The really important part of getting your rankings tiers ready for the NFL Draft, though, is to help prevent yourself from overreacting to draft capital. For my rookie rankings tiers, in almost all cases, players don’t move between tiers because of draft capital. They only move up and down within their tier. A player would have to have a drastically different draft capital than what’s projected for them for me to abandon my pre-NFL Draft evaluation.
Once you have your rookie rankings tiers, you can start to identify the areas of your rookie drafts that you want to be in. If you think there’s a clear tier gap after the 1.07, and you have the 1.08, perhaps you’re trying to find a way to move up a tier or trying to trade back to the end of your current tier to pick up an extra asset while staying in line to get a similar level of prospect. Maybe you think the best values are in the second round so you try to get multiple picks in that round.
Hopefully, after today, you’ll be able to view the combine through the correct lens to better help you prepare for your upcoming rookie drafts. Rookie evaluation is not easy, but knowing the correct things to look for with the Scouting Combine will go a long way in helping you work towards being proficient at it. When you can draft well in your rookie drafts, you can gain a significant advantage over your league mates. Happy combine!
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