Dynasty Trending Observations: Super Bowl Week
It’s Super Bowl week, which means the 2023 NFL season will officially conclude this weekend. And with that, the 2024 dynasty campaign will officially be underway. Below are a few trends from social media that could shape your next championship run.
Tua Fishing
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, coming off a career-best season in 2023, expects to sign a contract extension with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, he told reporters Friday.
More via @Marcel_LJ:https://t.co/4CY9TmrDI6
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 3, 2024
Thanks to his first healthy professional season, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a top-12 fantasy quarterback for the first time. In 17 games in 2023, Tagovailoa threw for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns with five 300-plus yard games. But if you look closer, it was a tale of two seasons. For example, all five of his 300-yard games came in the Dolphins’ first 10 games. He failed to throw 300 yards in a game in Miami’s last seven games and threw just eight touchdowns. Through week 11, he was QB6 in fantasy scoring but just QB22 from weeks 12 to the end. You can see the abrupt decline in his dynasty value, let alone his re-draft value, using DLF’s ADP tool.
2023 is in the rear-view mirror now and all eyes are on 2024. The post above shows how the Dolphins feel about Tagovailoa. What about his dynasty managers?
Dynasty Impact: The fact that Miami plans on re-signing him is, in itself, a positive development for his dynasty value. If the Dolphins see something they like and commit, Tagovailoa will at least have the opportunity to provide fantasy results for the foreseeable future.
However, this off-season is a big one, and not just because of the contract. The Dolphins, led by offensive guru Mike McDaniel, scored a ton of points and finished second in offensive DVOA. The hope is the league has not caught up to McDaniel’s schemes long-term as they did in the second half of the season. And it’s not as if there will be a new, shiny toy to add to Miami’s offense this off-season. There’s little room to add any more pieces to an offense that already boasts Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle.
Between the late-season slide and not to mention the influx of rookie quarterbacks entering dynasty leagues, Tagovailoa’s current dynasty quarterback ranking of 13th seems generous. If you’re a current dynasty manager and are offered a return that reflects a QB1, you should take it. And if you aren’t but are looking for a quarterback, especially in superflex leagues, let the rookies get drafted and cause Tagovailoa’s value to dip a little before making an offer.
Bateman State
John Harbaugh expects Rashod Bateman to be "a bigger part of it" next season. https://t.co/EwG8tKZNbb
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) February 3, 2024
Hopes were high for wide receiver Rashod Bateman when he was drafted in the first round by Baltimore in the 2021 NFL Draft. The 27th overall pick was the fifth receiver taken in a loaded class that included Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith. Bateman was also being paired with Lamar Jackson who was just one year removed from winning the Most Valuable Player Award. His rookie season was decent despite missing four games – he totaled 46 receptions for 515 yards and a touchdown which, while not setting the world on fire, was still promising in a run-first offense.
His sophomore season never really got off the ground. Despite a promising start that saw him notch a 100-yard game in week two in 2022, he ended up playing in just six games thanks to a foot injury that eventually required foot surgery. This motivated the Ravens to draft another receiver in the first round in the 2023 NFL Draft, Zay Flowers, which relegated Bateman to a role player instead of a starter.
This makes 2024 a critical season for Bateman and his prospects of a long NFL career. Not only will the Ravens need to decide on his fifth-year option this off-season but it may also be his last season to show the NFL he belongs.
Dynasty Impact: Bateman dynasty managers have had a tough time. From a top-35 dynasty receiver in terms of ADP right out of the gate to checking in outside the top-60 and barely being rosterable.
But there is an upside here. Assuming the Ravens don’t bring back Odell Beckham, Jr, Bateman would conceivably be the third target in the passing game order behind Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. If so, Bateman could replicate something closer to his rookie season with 500-plus yards. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Bateman could be had for a third-round rookie pick. Assuming the Ravens don’t add any major pieces, that would be worth it.
Say, Breece
1. Me
2.Bijan
3. CMC
4. J Gibbs
5. Derrick Henry/ David Montgomery https://t.co/UmAFtvA0g7— Breece Hall (@BreeceH) February 5, 2024
Football players don’t often weigh in on their fantasy value, along with others, but here we are. Breece Hall saw a post that already had him on top but felt the need to tweak the order behind him. Surprisingly, his top-five wasn’t all that different from our own DLF top-five running backs.
But the battle for the top spot for the foreseeable future will be between Hall and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. For Robinson, he entered the league as the top dynasty running back after being drafted eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. And whether it was because of his coaching, a bad quarterback, or a host of other reasons, Robinson was fine. He finished with 976 yards rushing, 487 yards receiving, and eight total touchdowns. He was a fringe RB1 when it came to fantasy scoring.
Meanwhile, Breece Hall had a similar but slightly better fantasy season. He rushed for 994 yards and five touchdowns while totaling 76 receptions for 591 yards and four more touchdowns and finished as fantasy’s seventh-highest-scoring running back.
So who should be the top running back heading into 2024?
Dynasty Impact: When it comes to the top dynasty running back title, both Hall and Robinson have their flaws. For Hall, he’s already suffered a major knee injury in his career and is one year older. For Robinson, he’s stuck in a middling offense until the Falcons can figure out the quarterback position. Because of that, I might lean toward Hall. He’ll get Aaron Rodgers at quarterback next year and possibly the next. In general, running backs have a short shelf life so their dynasty significance is often tied to the foreseeable future.
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