Dynasty Trending Observations: Conference Championship Week
While most of the football world will be looking ahead to the Super Bowl, a lot of dynasty players will be watching another game before then – the Senior Bowl – as it marks the official start of rookie draft season. There are also plenty of coaching changes still happening that will affect dynasty teams including a few below. In short, it’s been a busy week!
Charged Up
#NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/huf2A2YayH
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) January 25, 2024
Credit to the Chargers’ social media team who have been on top of the Jim Harbaugh hiring. The post above is just one we could have used but this was more ‘in your face’ (pun intended). Of course, the Chargers job had an advantage that no other coach-less team had – a franchise quarterback already locked in. Justin Herbert has been a fantasy football stud his entire four-year career save for this season when an injury cut his year short. He’s been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in the three seasons he played every game and would have again this year. The injury did pre-empt the decline of his value but he’s still a top-ten dynasty quarterback.
Harbaugh was brought in to win during the window that Herbert would be in his prime and the Chargers need to get more out of Herbert than just fantasy stats.
Dynasty Impact: On the football side of things, the Chargers have to be thrilled. Harbaugh was, arguably, the best coaching candidate on the market, a market that included future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel who would have been the top choices in most other years. Harbaugh brings something that previous Chargers head coach Brandon Staley didn’t have – experience and credibility. Harbaugh has won at every coaching stop, including his tenure with the 49ers.
But the Chargers job will be tough. They have the most important position figured out but not a lot else. Harbaugh is inheriting an old team that will also see several key players leave via free agency (because they have to pay Herbert). Players who could be on their way out are receiver Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, both of whom contributed to Herbert’s success as a fantasy star. Plus, Harbaugh may change the offense and away from the system that made Herbert a fantasy success if it means winning more games.
The bottom line is Herbert is a hold after the Harbaugh news. Don’t run out and pay a King’s Ransom for Herbert because his coaching got better. Wait to see what players that coach puts around him.
Cousins Retreat
Kirk Cousins is such a Minnesotan #skol pic.twitter.com/WXkareaegx
— Leighton Glodek (@LGlodek) January 26, 2024
We’re still a few weeks away from the start of the new league season and roster moves commencing so social media is full of different kinds of observations. Case in point, Kirk Cousins, in the middle of recovering from a torn Achilles, went viral for helping out some local Vikings fans. But it’s also a good time to highlight Cousins’ fantasy career and why he’s one of the more important players to watch in your dynasty superflex leagues.
Cousins may not win a lot in the NFL but he’s undoubtedly won for fantasy ties for almost a decade. From 2015 to 2022, Cousins threw for at least 3,600 yards and 25 touchdowns every season while with both the now-Commanders and Vikings. This has equated to a top-15 fantasy season in each of those campaigns. 2023 was different after suffering the Achilles injury but, even before then, Cousins was having another QB1 season. In just eight games, he had already thrown for 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns and was a top-five fantasy quarterback.
But 2024 is a big year for Cousins. Not only is he returning from a major injury but he could be changing teams. He is a free agent and the recent tidbit that the Vikings tried (in vain) to trade up for Anthony Richardson last year doesn’t make it a lock that he could return to Minnesota.
Dynasty Impact: Cousins has been a consistently good option in superflex leagues yet his value hasn’t seemed to reflect that.
He’s never cracked the top ten when it comes to dynasty ADP for quarterbacks and his seasons in Minnesota – when he was the quarterback behind All-Pro Justin Jefferson – never went inside the top 15.
Now, the injury would warrant his current value as a mid-range QB2. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, that would equate to a late-first-round rookie pick. That sounds right, whether Cousins stays in Minnesota or not. He’s already shown that he could be fantasy-relevant in other organizations and whichever team eventually signs him would presumably have the players around him. It’s ok to wait to see where he lands but not too long as he could be primed for another QB1 season.
Renaissance Art
Fantasy football fans hearing Arthur Smith was hired.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) January 30, 2024
Yes, it’s true. Arthur Smith was hired by an NFL team to manage their offense. This time, he goes north to Pittsburgh where he will be tasked to make something out of (proverbially) nothing by way of Kenny Pickett. Or maybe Mason Rudolph. Or maybe another quarterback. Whoever Pittsburgh decides on, it will be up to Smith to maximize him.
For Smith, he takes over an offense that was in the bottom quarter of teams when it came to offensive yards and the bottom five in points scored. Luckily the Steelers do have players in place who will help his case. Players like receiver George Pickens – who seems to be on the cusp of consistent fantasy greatness – and a running back duo in Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, both of whom were fantasy-relevant at various points this year. Smith will undoubtedly be happy to see them but will they – and their dynasty managers – want to see him?
Dynasty Impact: For the Steelers and their skill position players, they ended the season as good, not great, options. All three of Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and George Pickens finished 2023 as top-25 options at their respective positions.
Of course, their dynasty managers would like to see better. And they might get it. Smith’s tenure as head coach of the Falcons will remain infamous for, seemingly, ignoring his best players. But when he was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, his players were very fantasy-relevant. AJ Brown burst on the season as a top-ten fantasy receiver in his first two seasons in the league under Smith. And Derrick Henry enjoyed the two best seasons of his career under Smith, finishing as either the top or second-best fantasy running back.
The quarterback in Pittsburgh is vitally important but Arthur Smith had Ryan Tannehill at quarterback while he was pumping up Derrick Henry and AJ Brown’s fantasy stats. So it’s not unreasonable to expect Smith to do it again.
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