2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina
The quarterback position in the NFL needs some reinforcements, and there are several big names coming up in the 2024 NFL Draft. Caleb Williams is the consensus top QB on the board, and Jayden Daniels is coming off of a Heisman Trophy season, but where does North Carolina QB Drake Maye fit into this equation?
Recruitment
Image courtesy of 247 Sports.
Maye was a four or five-star recruit out of the Charlotte area. 247 Sports ranked him as the number four quarterback in the 2021 class, behind Quinn Ewers, Caleb Williams and Sam Huard. He wasn’t able to play his senior season in high school during the COVID-19 pandemic, but still received plenty of interest. He got 16 FBS offers, including Alabama, Clemson and Clemson. In the end, he decided to stay in-state and go to North Carolina. He actually committed to Alabama originally before decommitting in 2020 and choosing UNC instead. His father, Mark Maye, was a quarterback at North Carolina in the mid-1980s and his brother, Luke, won a national championship in basketball at UNC.
In his 2019 season at Myers Park High School, Maye threw for 3,512 yards, 50 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He also ran for 201 yards and added six touchdowns on the ground. High school scouting reports had Maye as a pro-style pocket passer with untapped athleticism. He was also one of North Carolina’s top basketball players, before committing to football in his junior year.
Collegiate Career
Image courtesy of College Football Reference.
North Carolina has had a run of highly drafted quarterbacks who have had minimal success in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky was the second overall pick in 2017 and Sam Howell was a second-round pick to the Commanders in 2021. Maye played his 2019 season behind Howell before getting a chance to start in 2022.
In 2022, Maye reached heights that Trubisky and Howell couldn’t, setting school records in 2022 with 4,321 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns. He was the ACC Player of the Year and led the conference in completions, yards and touchdowns. The Tar Heels started the season 9-1 before finishing on a four-game losing streak. Despite the 9-5 record, Maye finished 10th place in Heisman Trophy voting.
2023 brought a new offensive coordinator to Chapel Hill who leaned on the running game more than his predecessor. Maye still had a successful season, throwing for 3,608 yards and 24 touchdowns. Once again, the Tar Heels struggled down the stretch, losing four of their final six games on their way to an 8-4 regular season record. Maye led the conference in passing yards and finished second in completions and touchdowns.
His best game of the season came against Syracuse in a 40-7 win. Maye threw for 442 yards and three touchdowns, both season highs for 2023.
Maye opted out of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl to declare for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Strengths
- Prototypical size
- Pro-style QB with plenty of athleticism
- Nice footwork in the pocket
- Good improvisational work
- High-level velocity with nice touch
- Really accurate thrower
- Works the sidelines well
- Throws an accurate ball on the run and in the face of pressure
- Succeeds under pressure, and in big-game moments
- Seems to read defenses well and take what’s given to him
Weaknesses
- He can hang on to his first read for too long
- Slightly slow processor
- Can bail out of the pocket too quickly
- Tendency to dance in the backfield
Draft Value
Image courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
Maye is widely considered the second quarterback and, therefore, the second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He plays a vastly different style of quarterback than Caleb Williams, but the athleticism and explosiveness of Williams tends to put him over the top of Maye. That being said, if a team at the top of the draft (either the Bears or whoever they trade the pick to) prefers a more traditional pro-style quarterback, they could shock the world and take Maye at the top of the board. Ironically, given the current draft order, most early mock drafts have him joining his former teammate Howell in Washington.
If he does end up in Washington, it would be interesting to see if he has to compete for the job with Sam Howell, or if the new coaching staff will hand over the reins to the rookie. Based on college production and film, Maye is the better prospect coming out of college. He’s pro-ready, and wouldn’t need too much seasoning to be prepared to take on NFL defenses. But, we’ve seen success stories lately with quarterbacks taking a redshirt year at the pro level (or several redshirt years like Jordan Love). That being said, if it was a true competition, Maye shouldn’t have too much trouble winning the job over Howell.
Dynasty Outlook
Among the three quarterbacks at the top of the draft, Maye might be the least exciting of the group. He is prototypical and lacks the flash that Williams or Daniels have. But, that could result in him being underrated from a dynasty outlook.
Think back to 2020, when Justin Herbert was selected with the sixth overall pick. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa had the flashier college careers and went before Herbert did, but he’s been as successful, if not more than both of them. Maye is loaded with arm talent and is an underrated athlete, just like Herbert is.
With Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and several elite-level wide receivers in the first round of this draft, Drake Maye could find himself overshadowed by his classmates, but he shouldn’t be. He is a pro-ready stud who should be expected to have the easiest transition to the NFL of the top-end quarterbacks. He is an underrated runner, and could develop even more skill there at the NFL level, just like Justin Herbert did. He won’t win fantasy matchups with his legs alone, but it could be enough to put your team over the top on a week-to-week basis.
He’s worth an early first-round pick in rookie superflex drafts, and should, for now, be considered the second quarterback off the board, ahead of Daniels and behind Williams. But, as the pre-draft process continues and draft picks are made in April, Maye could end up anywhere in the top three of quarterback rankings in this rookie class.
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