Dynasty Trending Observations: Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford and New England’s Changes
There’s been plenty of action on the field but also a lot off it. Coaching vacancies are becoming open (and filled) that will alter NFL teams’ path next season. That will mean players are on the move in real life and in your dynasty leagues, some of which are outlined below.
The (New) Patriot Way
It’s a new era in New England: the Patriots have hired Jerod Mayo as their next head coach and he will be formally introduced at a press conference next week, a source tells ESPN. pic.twitter.com/SeHKoAonrP
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 12, 2024
It’s a new day in New England as Bill Belichick is out as the head coach of New England and Jerod Mayo is in. It ended an unprecedented run of success by a head coach but it was also time for a change. The Patriots had been on a steady decline since the departure of Tom Brady when Belichick and the Patriots made the playoffs with rookie Mac Jones three years ago but bottomed out with four wins in 2024.
The season was not just bad for Patriots fans but also for the fantasy managers of any Patriots player. No quarterback – and the Patriots had two who saw significant playing time – threw for more than 2,200 yards or 10 touchdowns; no running back ran for more than 700 yards, and no receiver ran for more than 600 yards. Like I said, it was a disaster. It’s possible the leading passer, rusher, and receiver for New England are not Patriots next year but I don’t think dynasty leaguers will mind.
Dynasty Impact: The 2024 season in New England will go down as one of the worst for fantasy managers in a long time. Every decent dynasty asset saw their dynasty value decline from the start of the season to the end.
The most salvageable is running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He was injured for a quarter of the season but still managed over 850 total yards and four touchdowns and was coming off a season where Stevenson was a low-end RB1. He has one more season under contract in New England and could bounce back.
As for the passing game, it’s due for a complete overhaul. The Patriots are expected to take a quarterback with the third overall pick while also needing to add better options in the receiving game. Do as the Patriots will do and move on from them.
Elementary, My Dear Watson
#Browns coach Kevin Stefanski says he has "no doubt" Deshaun Watson can hit the ground running next year: He was 4-1 as a starter, plenty of great moments. I don't know how many people on Earth could've had the second half he had in Baltimore with the injuries he had.
— Scott Petrak ct (@ScottPetrak) January 14, 2024
The first team eliminated from the NFL playoffs wasted no time in looking to next year. After quarterback Joe Flacco carried the Browns to the playoffs (where they were promptly blown out), it still wasn’t enough to supplant Deshaun Watson as the Browns’ starter for next year, as mentioned in the post above. For all the goodwill Flacco generated, it wasn’t enough to get a starting job in Cleveland (but it might be enough for a job somewhere else). Instead, Watson will assume the starting job in 2024 for Cleveland.
The reason it was even a question if Watson would still be the starter was his very unimpressive play during the six games he played this season. He threw for just 1,115 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions and was a far cry from when he was throwing for over 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in Houston.
Dynasty Impact: For as much as Watson’s dynasty value has tanked – and it has, mightly – he might now be a good value.
If Flacco, who was out of the league, could put up the numbers he did, there’s reason for optimism for Watson especially if he has the whole off-season to recover from his injuries. He has the run game, he has the pass catchers, and he has a good defense behind him.
It may be too much to target Watson as your QB in 1QB leagues but not for superflex. According to our DLF Trade Analyzer, he’s currently valued as a mid-to-low first-round rookie pick. If the pick is towards the early part of the first round, that wouldn’t be worth it as there will be a few options in the rookie draft. But it might make sense if it was towards the end of the first, especially if you need a quick solution.
Matt’s All, Folks
Matthew Stafford's wife confirms he'll be back next season and hopes Detroit can go and win it all now… pic.twitter.com/oqN3ekrub5
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 15, 2024
After, ironically, being in Detroit for the Lions’ first playoff win in decades, Matthew Stafford was immediately asked about his future. Luckily, his wife posted a pretty definitive answer above which seems to confirm Stafford will be back in 2024. And why not? He finished the season healthy and the Rams can’t easily get out from under his contract so it makes sense for both parties, at least for another season.
For Stafford dynasty managers, this Rams version hasn’t been quite the same as the Lions version. In Detroit, Stafford was a top-ten fantasy quarterback in five of his 12 seasons but has just one in his three seasons in Los Angeles. However, he does have two top-15 seasons and the only reason he didn’t in his second was because he missed half the season. So he was still productive. But can he continue to be?
Dynasty Impact: To be clear, there are legitimate concerns about Stafford. 2024 will be his age-36 season and he’s been about as banged up as any player in the league who is still walking. And his dynasty value hasn’t exactly been steady.
But he, and the Rams, did get a boost this season with the emergence of second-year running back Kyren Williams and rookie receiver Puka Nacua. Both lightened the load for Stafford this season and will be back next year to do the same.
Using our DLF Trade Analyzer, Stafford is currently worth a late-first-round rookie pick or an early second. This is a loaded rookie class so I don’t know that I’d give up a first. But a second is more reasonable, especially if your, ready-to-win Superflex team is lacking a second quarterback.
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