2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Caleb Williams, QB USC
Generational prospect.
A phrase that is meant to describe a once-in-a-generation player gets used far too often in the dynasty space. In the 2024 draft class alone, I’ve heard people describe three rookie prospects as generational. In the past three seasons, Bijan Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, and Kyle Pitts were all labeled with the once-in-a-generation designation. Today, only one of those players is even ranked in the top five for their respective positions. Generational.
If so many prospects are regarded that way, maybe we need to change how we view the word rather than holding it to its actual definition. A player who is likely to hit in the NFL, a player who has all of the tools needed to succeed, and a player who will receive early NFL draft capital all seem to fit the new perceived definition of the phrase, and all three apply to the rookie prospect we’ll be looking at today; Caleb Williams.
Recruitment
Williams was a highly-regarded recruit out of high school. Ranked as the number two QB in the nation by 247 Sports, Williams was projected to be a first-round NFL Draft talent going back as far as 2018. Being compared to Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, there was a lot to be excited about even before Williams landed with Oklahoma and QB guru Lincoln Riley.
Collegiate Career
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference
When Williams joined Oklahoma, the expectation was that he would sit behind incumbent starter Spencer Rattler for his true freshman season. Plans changed quickly as Rattler proved to not be the talent most believed he was. Williams took over for a struggling Rattler in week six of the season, leading Oklahoma to a comeback victory against their rival Texas. Williams never looked back, leading Oklahoma to five more wins and a top-ten rank at the end of the 2021 season.
2022 saw some change, as Wiliams and Lincoln Riley both transferred to USC. The move proved to be a great one, with Williams winning the Heisman trophy at the end of a strong season. Following that season, the “generational” label started being given to Williams.
Charts courtesy of Campus2Canton.com
As you can see, Williams stands out in multiple ways when compared to recent QB prospects. It’s also apparent that he is not head and shoulders above everyone else as a prospect, as some may lead you to believe. Another thing that stands out is his lack of progression, from year to year. Williams started off hot in his freshman season, but his advanced metrics have plateaued or even fallen off in quite a few categories since then.
One of the combinations of metrics I look at for QB prospects is Big Time Throw Rate and Intended Air Yards. My research has found that QBs who have a BTTR higher than 5% and an IAY of 9.5 or more have a higher chance of hitting in the NFL. Williams had a BTTR of over 6% each season, but his IAY slipped from 9.7 in 2022 to 9.2 this past season. I still believe that he has what it takes to be a quality NFL starter, but has some work to do to get to that point.
Strengths
- Arm Strength
- Athleticism
- Accuracy
- Elusiveness
Weaknesses
- Processing
- Pocket awareness
- Plays “hero ball”
- Lack of competition in college
Draft Value
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database
Williams has long been considered the 1.01 in the NFL Draft, but I feel like his stranglehold on that pick has weakened during the 2023 season. Teams may very well view Drake Maye as a more complete prospect, who is ready to start from day one. Ultimately, Williams will have high-end NFL draft capital and will be viewed as the quarterback of the future for whichever team drafts him.
Dynasty Outlook
Williams will immediately be a top-ten dynasty QB upon arrival in the NFL. My hope for him is that he lands with a team that is willing to be patient with him and help him grow as a player. Dynasty managers will likely need to exercise that same patience because there will assuredly be some hiccups along the way. That being said, because of his prospect profile and projected NFL Draft capital, Williams’ dynasty value will hold for multiple seasons. I expect Williams to eventually settle in as a top-12 dynasty QB, with the upside to be top-five. That ceiling and floor combination makes him an easy top-three rookie draft pick in superflex leagues.
While Caleb Williams may not be a once-in-a-generation prospect, he is a newly defined “generational” prospect and that’s all we can ask for at the QB position. So much can and will change between now and the NFL Draft, but I believe Williams will still be viewed as just that, a great prospect worthy of an early pick when the time comes.
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