Dynasty ADP vs Rankings: Tight End
This series explores Ranks and ADP to find advantages in our dynasty leagues. Last week we looked at the rank differences at wide receiver from the new Superflex ADP from May mock drafts. This week we’re going to consider the tight-end position.
Which tight ends are DLF rankers more and less interested in than current ADP? Who are their buys, sells, and sleepers?
You can find links to those profiles, our DLF Ranks, and the current May Superflex ADP.
The Top 12 Tight Ends
I’ve switched up our process to look at the difference between the estimated draft round (in a 12-team league) instead of the overall estimated pick. This helps limit marginal differences and hopefully highlight more significant opportunities.
There’s not as much sense in looking at the position since so few tight ends have value or utility outside of streaming the position (which can be trickier on a dynasty waiver wire).
So, let’s look at the position as it falls off the board in a dynasty draft, according to ADP. Below are the top 12 drafted in the most recent ADP and DLF ranker’s opinions on those players.
Since February, Michael Mayer, who was the TE 11 in ADP, has fallen out of the top 12 in both ranks and ADP. While Dalton Schultz, who was the TE10 in ADP back then, has fallen out of the top 12 only in ADP. The ranks still have him as the TE11.
Back in February, ranks had Greg Dulcich and Cole Kmet in the top 12 and only held Evan Engram outside the top 12 compared to ADP. But rookies hadn’t entered the ranks pool yet, to be fair.
This has made room for the rise of Chigoziem Okonkwo, now the ADP TE7 and TE17 in ranks, and Dalton Kincaid, TE8 in ADP and TE8 in ranks. Ranks have since let Evan Engram, Greg Dulcich, and Cole Kmet fall out of the top 12.
DLF has allowed more change in their top 12 overall at the position, partly because of the availability to rank rookies now. However, both ranks and ADP have quickly adopted Dalton Kincaid, the NFL’s first drafted tight end, as the ultimate TE1 from this class and not Michael Mayer.
What’s more, in both February and May ADP, ranks are strongly opposed to Evan Engram. This seemed strange to me, and I’ve consistently been higher on the once former great rookie breakout.
Looking closer, I found I am the only ranker with Engram in my top 12. The extreme difference is also heavily affected by Mike Havens having him ranked as the TE34 overall. Interestingly he is one of only two rankers to have Chigoziem Okonkwo in his top 12. The other ranker is Ryan McDowell.
Recently I broke down the position using breakout trends on the Dynasty Crossroads and YouTube. Historically, it seems as if the position is due for some change. It has produced fewer breakouts into the top 12 than expected in recent seasons.
The ranks still hold Dalton Schultz in the top 12 as TE11. They are making Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer the only players in the top 12 who have not been inside the top 12 in an actual season. Suggesting rankers are less prone to chase breakout even in a favorable year for them.
Actionable Take Aways
George Kittle, TE SF
In both February and May, George Kittle is consistently the player ranks are willing to reach significantly. Only one ranker has him as low as the TE6, everyone has him higher than TJ Hockenson, despite his new ADP, and everyone is willing to reach him a round above the mock drafts.
Evan Engram, TE JAC
Ranks continue to suggest Evan Engram will not keep his top 12 value moving forward. I disagree. But this has been a consistent feature over the off-season. If I remove Mike Havens, the lowest rank listed, and myself, the highest rank, his DLF average position rank is still only TE15.
Everyone has a different Sleeper but buy Greg Dulcich, TE DEN
This doesn’t filter into a top 12 list very easily. Still, if you poke around the ranks long enough, you notice that Greg Dulcich, ranked in the top 12 by four of the sever ranks, is also in the top 15 across all ranks and notably the only not rookie to be held inside the top 12 for anyone.
While everyone has their preference for young rookie tight ends in their top 12, and while Mike Havens and Ryan McDowell are betting big on Chigoziem Okonkwo, it’s Dulcich who is the group’s favorite.
He has fallen out of the top 12 now that rookies are in the pool to be ranked, but the DFL crew still has that February option in May.
Sell TJ Hockenson, TE MIN
There are remarkably few things ranks agree on readily as selling TJ Hockenson, specifically for George Kittle, if possible. Ranks are not buying his recent ADP jump after his remarkable 2022 season once traded to Minnesota.
Dalton Schultz, TE HOU
The former Dallas player, now in Houston, is a sneaky “steady Eddie” in the ranks. While it is a year for breakouts, the DLF crew still holds a high opinion of Schultz. Three have him in the top 12, and all but one have him inside the top 14 at the position. No one had him below the TE17. He is the TE19 in May ADP, drafted in the 14th estimated draft round.
According to the DLF Trade Finder, Schultz is mainly used as a “piece” in a larger trade – valued in and around a second-round pick – and used to either get younger at the position and receive a first back for someone like Travis Kelce, or tier up at wide receiver or running back.
Most of your league mates, it seems, are less interested in trading for him.
This makes sense since the position has relatively little value as a flex play, and even top 12 tight ends aren’t hugely important. However, if you are looking for someone solid, with proven production, at a younger age, Schultz is a good bet.
He’s 26 years old and has finished in the top 12 before. While he may not light the league on fire, he also likely won’t light your roster on fire, either.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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