Tactical Transactions: Moves to Make Before Week 14
Last week I was traveling to and within the United Kingdom as part of a company on-site meeting (hat tip to my colleague Wyatt Bertolone for picking up my slack). When I wasn’t working or bopping around here and there, I was able to spend some time being a tourist and enjoying sites I hadn’t before seen given this was my first trip across the Atlantic. I even managed to survive the airline losing my checked baggage for a couple of days, and got it back just before I ran out of clean clothing!
While perhaps cumbersome, I want to attempt to turn the experiences of my past week into dynasty football metaphors. Here goes…
The Manchester Christmas Markets: In advance of this specific destination, my wife sent me a TikTok video of the best foods to eat there. I must’ve walked around this market for about 25 minutes, not being able to find my predetermined delicacy of choice (a sandwich called a ‘parmo’). That’s when I realized there were actually multiple markets, and where I needed to be was about 0.75 miles away. You better bet I made my way down there and fulfilled my culinary destiny, which I think is a metaphor to keep your eyes on the prize and finish what you started.
Buckingham Palace: Quite the site, though my pronunciation was roundly mocked by colleagues (apparently the ‘h’ is soft). The famed palace guards were indeed out patrolling, which I’ll equate to always needing to stay alert in search of any edge possible.
Westminster Abbey: This place was as incredible as it was ornate. I took lord knows how many pictures, but when I got home I could barely recall the ‘who’ and ‘why’ behind them! I just got lost in the opulence and was untargeted in taking it all in. We all love having that ‘sexy’ team with beautiful things to look at, but it shouldn’t distract us from the end goal of making your starting roster (or future roster) better and gunning for the championship (or firm rebuild).
Big Ben: It’s the trophy, duh! You could walk for blocks in any direction and it would still be visible, much as any trophy should be. The championship will always be the biggest elephant in the room, much like Big Ben.
Hyde Park: I met a lovely gentleman who kindly shared his critter food, enabling me to feed the birds and squirrels. Nice as can be despite us being complete strangers, and I was able to forge a brief relationship which ultimately led to him pointing me in the way of a good pub! Dynasty football is about relationships, and the better your relationships the more bird and squirrels you’ll be able to feed – er, rather, the more trades you’ll be able to make!
‘The Feathers’ Pub: No metaphor here. The fish and chips were absolutely bangin’ and people need to know about it.
The Darn Lost Luggage: Unideal, yes, and I was definitely stressing about it at first. But eventually I just trusted the process, which in this case was the fact my suitcase was in the system somewhere and would eventually join me, which it ultimately did. Things don’t always go to plan, but why get upset about what you can’t control? Trust your own process, navigate the bumps in the road, and keep moving forward.
Disclaimer! As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Guidance will continue to take into account a player’s current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he’s performed.
One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.
With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week 14:
Buy (All Teams) – Rashee Rice, WR CIN
Week 13 Line: 8-64-0 (9 targets)
Sure, Rice was a better ‘buy’ a month ago than he is now. But he’ll also be a better ‘buy’ now than he’ll likely be at any point over the next few years.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
Ignore the overall snap percentages, which show that Rice has only participated in roughly half the team’s offensive plays. Instead note how he’s moved past teammates Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore in recent weeks, which coincides with an increased target share and eight receptions apiece over his last two contests. Despite being a rookie, he’s now clearly the Chiefs’ top receiver.
The WR32 per the November ADP, Rice has an argument to be treated more closely to players like Zay Flowers (WR21), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR19) and Jordan Addison (WR11). On the year he has the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most yards amongst the freshmen receivers, and in case you forgot he plays with the best quarterback on the planet. A range of WR16-20 is firmly in the December ADP possibilities, and given the fact he’s both young and producing now, he’s a buy for all teams.
Buy (All Teams) – Nico Collins, WR HOU
Week 13 Line: 9-191-1 (12 targets)
Sure, Collins was a better ‘buy’ a month ago than he is now. But he’ll also be a better ‘buy’ now than he’ll likely be at any point over the next few years.
Okay, the copy/paste was done somewhat for comedic effect, but the same points I made with Rice apply to Collins, who has been absolutely balling out the past two weeks with an aggregate line of 16-295-2 on 21 targets. He now has four 100+ yard games on the season, and six games with at least six receptions. Despite missing a contest he’s the PPR WR12, having done so on just 85 targets. To that point, every player in front of him has accrued more looks, with 10 of 11 seeing at least 103 targets. Quite simply, he’s doing way more with less, with a robust 2.28 points per target.
Perhaps it got lost when Collins fell to the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft, but the guy is an absolute physical freak. Collins is big and fast, comes with a large catch radius, and has more than enough agility and burst for his size.
Still only 24 years old despite this being his third season in the league, Collins was already leading the team in most of the receiving statistics. With rookie teammate Tank Dell now unfortunately lost for the year, Collins may be tasked with taking over an even bigger slice of the pie.
While noting values have assuredly changed since last month’s ADP, two of Collins’ trade value comparables include Deebo Samuel and George Pickens. I would sleep like a baby if I could get the Texans receiver straight up for either one, as I view both his floor and ceiling as higher than his compatriots. Once again similar to Rice, Collins is both young and putting up numbers, making him a strong candidate for rosters of all shapes and sizes.
Buy (Rebuilding Teams) – Tank Dell, WR HOU
Week 13 Line: 0-0-0 (0 targets)
Dell was unfortunately carted off the field in week 13 with what is now known to be a fractured fibula. It appears as though he will miss the remainder of the season, and even if not will surely be out through the fantasy football playoffs.
Being on the diminutive side and coming into the league older at 23 years of age, Dell was well on his way to bucking convention and functioning as a fantasy outlier. Prior to his injury he was rivaling teammate Collins for fantasy viability, with a fine 47-709-7 line across 10 contests. Another member of 2023’s prolific rookie class, Dell had climbed to an ADP as the dynasty WR41, a number which was more than likely set to increase with two 100+ yard games and five scores in November.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
Before the questionable decision of running him into the pile, the Houston coaches were smartly using Dell as one of the aerial offense’s centerpieces. He played nearly every snap in the week missed by Collins, and was otherwise matching his veteran counterpart in playing time. He had also formed a strong bond with quarterback CJ Stroud, functioning as both an intermediate threat and big play specialist at 15.1 YPR.
With one week left in the regular season, Dell’s points need replacing. Where possible rebuilding squads should offer up any similarly valued veteran players as central components in a potential deal, with examples including players like Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley, Gabriel Davis and Christian Kirk. There’s no reason to suspect the electric rookie won’t be back at full strength next season, where he should resume functioning as both a real-life and fantasy football starter.
Sell (All Teams) – Najee Harris, RB PIT
Week 13 Line: 16-63-0, 2-14-0 (3 targets)
Though it was commonly believed Harris’ role on the Steelers offense would be diminished with the firing of the league’s least inspiring offensive coordinator in Matt Canada, that hasn’t come to fruition. To that point, the erstwhile bell-cow has accumulated 34 opportunities over the past two games, which actually represents a slight increase over his per-game average of 15.5 opportunities in his other 10 games played. Unfortunately, he’s just not doing anything with them.
Yes, his rushing efficiency has ticked slightly up at 4.2 YPC on the year, but that’s only compared to his first two seasons yielding 3.9 and 3.8 YPC, respectively. He’s still being lapped by backfield companion Jaylen Warren, who is averaging 5.9 YPC while also sequestering 18 additional targets and 17 more receptions. This is all to say that ‘improved’ doesn’t mean ‘good,’ or even league-average.
Still, there will be owners in every league looking to galaxy brain their way into a young-ish reclamation product, convinced he’ll bounce back huge and be their missing piece in 2024. My advice would be to find that owner and seek to make trades similar to these recent ones below found in DLF’s Trade Finder (noting that I don’t understand any of these league particularities other than those noted at the rightmost portion of each row).
Priority Waiver Add (All Teams) – Xavier Gipson, WR NYJ
Week 13 Line: 5-77-0 (6 targets), 1 carry for 1 yard
To be clear, recommending any member of the Jets offense not named Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson must be preceded by prophylactic administration of Pepto Bismol. Even then, monitoring for symptoms of heartburn and gastric distress remains advisable. But…it’s nearly the end of the fantasy football regular season, and more often than not waiver wires are picked clean and owners probably won’t be unearthing any hidden gems. So why not take a chance on a common mineral?
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
Readers of this column know that I like to leverage 4for4.com’s snap data, as I believe it has the potential to help unearth future fantasy production before it happens. This may have very well been the case with Gipson, who has played 68% or more of the Jets’ snaps over the past four weeks, and finally turned it into production with a fine line of 5-77-0 (this is equivalent to 200 receiving yards on a competent offense).
In week 14 the Jets still only scored a measly eight points, but the quarterbacks were able to supply 19 receptions for 197 yards. Hardly the stuff of legend, but trending in the right direction as compared to the previous two weeks which yielded 271 total passing yards. Wilson will still be the team’s top target, but someone is going to have to fill the void at WR2 – with Randall Cobb a weekly inactive and Allen Lazard no longer able to bask in Aaron Rodgers’ reflected glory, maybe it will be Gipson?
A 2023 UDFA, Gipson is already defying the odds by seeing legitimate game action. Now that he is, a dive into his past shows a player who broke out early in college, and concluded his collegiate career with 139 receptions for 2,530 yards and 21 scores over his final two seasons. Built like a thicker Tank Dell and with a purported ability to run a 4.4-second 40-yard dash, Gipson more than likely fell because he played for the Division 1 FCS Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, a school that has only had 38 players drafted into the NFL during its existence (only six since the year 2000).
We already know Gipson is electric with the ball in his hands based on his walk-off punt return in a week 1 victory over the Buffalo Bills. He’s now getting a legitimate shot on a team that will more likely than not be playing from behind, with a potential quarterback upgrade in Trevor Siemian. It’s dire straits to be clear, but Gipson may offer upside moving forward.
Priority Drop (All Teams) – Salvon Ahmed, RB MIA
Week 13 line: No statistics (Injured Reserve)
Ahmed was a worthwhile flier while teammates Jeff Wilson and De’Von Achane were on the mend. He even managed a couple of touchdowns, and had four games with at least three receptions. But the fact is the Miami backfield is now healthy in their RB1-3 slots, meaning when Ahmed returns from Injured Reserve it will likely be to a gameday inactive status, if he returns at all (the Dolphins may not have any remaining allocations for players designated to return).
If you have an infinite Injured Reserve, it’s fine to stash Ahmed there. But if he’s taking up a valuable bench spot or a limited IR slot, business decisions have to be made. He’s not helping you in 2023, and hasn’t been productive enough over his four years in the league to make you think he’ll be usable in 2024 and moving forward. Seek out a player like Gipson above who has a nonzero chance of accumulating dynasty value.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
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