Dynasty Trending Observations: Brock Purdy a Winner, Justin Herbert Not?
Thanksgiving is behind us and the playoffs are in our sights. For some, their dynasty teams are gunning for a championship. For others, the next season starts now. For the latter, it’s never too early to start evaluating your team or potential targets for next season. Below are a few developments that could shape that search.
Between Brock and a Hard Place
If you scoff at Tim Boyle in fantasy football just remember a year ago people scoffed at Brock Purdy.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) November 23, 2023
Last season, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was the year’s feel-good story, not necessarily in fantasy leagues but in the real NFL where he went from third-stringer to starting in the NFC Championship Game. He was averaging just over 150 passing yards per game but San Francisco was winning so it didn’t matter. Fast forward to this year when Purdy is not just leading San Francisco to the playoffs again but also helping fantasy teams. Through week 12, Purdy has now thrown 19 touchdowns against six interceptions and is averaging over 100 yards per game more than last season (261-152). The 49ers are also 8-3 and ranked at the top of offensive DVOA.
For Purdy fantasy managers, he might have returned the biggest ROI in fantasy football history. After being selected in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft, he’s now a QB1 in fantasy scoring in just his second year and shows no signs of slowing down. But for dynasty purposes, is he a cornerstone piece or someone you should cash in on?
Dynasty Impact: For any dynasty team that picked Purdy off waivers (unless you were one of the few to draft him), you’re already playing with house money. No other quarterback has come from so far down to such great heights in this short amount of time.
And at just 23, he could be on your dynasty team for a long time. Of the 14 quarterbacks ranked ahead of Purdy in our DLF Quarterback Rankings, just two (rookies CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson) are younger than him.
The gut reaction for Purdy dynasty managers would be to sell high. However, with how fickle the quarterback position has been lately, it’s not a guarantee that you would be able to easily replace Purdy at the quarterback position should you move him for picks and/or players. Purdy is a hold right now who could eventually lead you to a dynasty championship.
Bijan Nightmares
So weird but turns out when you use your best players is they make plays. This is a Bijan Robinson tweet.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) November 26, 2023
For Bijan Robinson dynasty managers, it hasn’t been the season they imagined when they took him first overall in rookie drafts. He hasn’t been bad, per se, but he also hasn’t been the RB1 that he was billed. Through ten games, Robinson had rushed for just 612 yards and two touchdowns plus another 29 receptions for 208 yards and two more touchdowns. In all, he was just a low-end RB2 in fantasy scoring who, thanks to coach Arthur Smith, was capable of single-digit fantasy games. Then week 12 happened and Robinson (finally) broke out. He rushed 16 times for 91 yards and a touchdown and added three receptions for 32 yards and another touchdown. For Robinson managers, they hope this is a sign of things to come with the fantasy playoffs right around the corner. But what does this do to his value next season and beyond?
Dynasty Impact: It’s debatable if Robinson is the top overall player in dynasty leagues. If you’re in a PPR league and you favor running backs, there are not many better options. And while I usually subscribe to the ‘sell-high’ school of thought so you can acquire more assets, Bijan might be an exception. It’s not just because he’ll be just 22 entering next season but he’s also on a rookie contract for at least the next three, if not four. And if Robinson can put up quasi-RB1 fantasy numbers with the disaster duo of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Henicke at quarterback, imagine what he could do if the Falcons upgrade the position before 2024.
No matter what your league settings or position preference, Robinson is a top-five dynasty asset. Nothing should prevent that from being the case for the foreseeable future.
Justin (Decision) Time
Since the Chargers drafted Justin Herbert in 2020, they are 30-30. In those 60 games, the Chargers have scored 1,508 points and given up 1,507 points. pic.twitter.com/qw0e8LbRPv
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 26, 2023
It’s the holidays which also means it’s time for the annual ‘Is Justin Herbert a winner?’ conversation. For those not familiar, this is the same conversation we’ve had the last two seasons and ever since Herbert burst on the scene as a rookie. In that 2020 season, Herbert threw for over 4,300 yards and 31 touchdowns and won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in the process. He was also a top-12 fantasy quarterback which is impressive as a rookie.
Because of that rookie season, however, the expectations went sky high not just for fantasy purposes but in real life. And despite Herbert delivering on the fantasy stats – he’s been a QB1 in every season of his professional career including the current one – he hasn’t elevated the Chargers. The post above spells it out but Los Angeles – as a team – has been perfectly average. They have one playoff appearance in the three seasons since they drafted Herbert and don’t appear to be in a position for another in 2023. Of course, it doesn’t help the perception that Herbert can’t win when his draft class includes quarterbacks who have already made a Super Bowl – Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts – and another that might lead his team there this year – Tua Tagovailoa.
Of course, the winning part isn’t the most important trait for a player to be a good dynasty asset. But if he’s not his real-life team may try a different philosophy that could cut into said players’ fantasy prospects.
Dynasty Impact: For Herbert dynasty managers, he’s been everything you could have hoped for in a quarterback. He’s been an elite fantasy quarterback every season and, physically, shows no signs of slowing down which is why he’s still considered a top-five player.
However, there will be changes in Los Angeles in the off-season with Brandon Staley assuredly moving on. Whomever the Chargers bring in to replace him will have their philosophy as to how to get the most out of Herbert and the team. It could be to continue throwing the ball as much as they have (the Chargers have never finished lower than 12th in pass attempts in a season), or they could bring a more ground-and-pound philosophy that takes the ball out of Herbert’s hands. It’s a situation to watch this off-season that could impact whether you keep Herbert or trade him to the highest bidder.
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