Lineup Advice: Week 8 – Upside Down Edition

Jeff Haverlack Posted On October 27, 2023

Bye: None

Week 8

2022 was another great year for my fantasy teams. A very large percentage of them made the playoffs and a good number of them made/won the championship. It wasn’t quite a good as 2021, but variability/luck in fantasy, even in dynasty, is still a thing when it’s one-and-done once the playoffs commence. In a single week, anything can happen. Make no mistake here, Lady Luck always rides shotgun with you during your fantasy journey.

2023 has been a different animal and, judging by the questions/comments I have been receiving across all of my social platform accounts, it’s just the lay of the land this year.

It doesn’t take long to survey the injury occurrences to see the first issue. Then, overlay some of the “who woulda guessed?” events and it’s quite the combination of fortune/misfortune. More than any other year in recent memory, I have received messages that can be boiled down to this single question:

I won the championship last year and my team is 2-5, should I rebuild?

Maybe this rings familiar to you too? I know it does for me. I’ll be honest in saying that this week got away from me and I completely forgot to post this column yesterday. For that reason, I’m leaving out the team tracking again this week but will update it next week. What I can tell you is that most of my teams are sitting at some combination of 3-4 or 4-3. I have one team at 6-1, taking my first lost this past week. Two of my teams sit at 2-5, one of them a championship team. One of my 3-4 teams is a championship team. I don’t put a lot of stock in redraft leagues because luck plays such a big role but my best performing team is my only redraft league, the Scott Fish Bowl, where my squad is 13-1 and ranked 59th out of 3,312 teams. The wheels can fall off at any time.

Fantasy happens.

When misfortune strikes, sometimes there’s nothing you can do but ride it out. I’ve been a broken record with what I’m about to type again, but it still holds true: A poor record doesn’t mean a rebuild is necessary. Sometimes you just need to ride it out. Objective analysis is key!

The reason I mention “objectivity” is because that is where my fantasy prospects begin and end. When evaluating our teams, we must see through what should happen, what could happen and what we want to happen, and instead focus on the “what is” or what is happening. Then, zoom out to determine if it’s an acute issue or something chronic. If it’s acute, we do nothing and ride it out. If it’s chronic, we determine if it’s something that will change over time or if it could be the new normal.

As an example, reference just a few of the struggling players:

Quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Geno Smith
Running Backs: Dameon Pierce, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, Jaymyr Gibbs
Wide Receivers: Jerry Jeudy, Jahan Dotson, DeVonta Smith
Tight Ends: Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, Pat Freiermuth

I’m not going to expand on these players and my objective analysis on each, but I list them to prove a point. If you have questions about a particular player, feel free to drop it in your comment. Variability in fantasy performance will most certainly impact your results. Your mission is to find out whether it’s an anomaly or a long term trend, and then act accordingly. What I will offer is that, based on what I’ve seen, dynasty coaches are throwing in the towel far too soon. I call it the “DFS Effect.” If DFS has impacted dynasty in one way it’s in the gambling mindset. We expect performance immediately and when we don’t get it, we punt and start over.

Many of the trades I’m seeing recurring at a greater rate show this to be true. I wish I had more data to lay this out in article form, but the trend is most certainly on the increase from what I’ve witnessed, and continues to expand. Dynasty is turning into a “win now at all cost” as opposed to a “build it over time” activity.

The take-away here is that winning is great and I hope each of you gets that sweet taste of a championship. But only one team gets that taste each year in each league you participate in. Not winning does not mean you don’t have a team capable of it. A lot of factors play into a championship season and Lady Luck holds your hand the entire way. Your job as a dynasty coach is simply to ensure you maximize her potential benefits while not losing yourself in the relationship. To some degree, we make our own luck but you don’t want your teams to be defined by it.

Objective analysis is key. Throw yourself a pity party or two following that bad week, or even a bad season, but don’t allow yourself to fall victim to an all-or-nothing mindset. Good luck in week eight and beyond.

Let’s get to the lineup advice.

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see growth in our membership and each year I continue to wonder how I’m going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you’ve all come to expect from me. I’ve been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

Please don’t ask me to set your entire lineup
Put “TNF” as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling(s).
Include your scoring format (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
Keep your questions as brief as possible – Story questions add a lot of time
I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don’t worry, I’ll be back to it.
It’s easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I’m wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I’m still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Author
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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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