Dynasty Blueprint: Week Four

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. Here, you’ll find my “Game Notes,” which comes directly from my fantasy football notebook, along with multiple post-game conversations with others. In the “Game Play” section, I’ll explain what I’m doing with my personal dynasty teams, including waiver wire targets and trade ideas. Finally, “Game Theory” will focus on dynasty strategy.

GAME NOTES

Lions vs. Packers

Many were not happy with how the Lions used rookie Jahmyr Gibbs against the Packers. With veteran David Montgomery back in the lineup, Gibbs usage reverted to what we saw the first two weeks. Playing 37% of the snaps, Gibbs drew 12 touches and finished as the RB23 on the week. This is frustrating for those who spent the 1.02 pick on the former Bama back, but this is what we will see moving forward. I was also a big believer in Gibbs this offseason and aggressively ranked him as my dynasty RB2. I’ve since dropped him down below Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall.

Sam LaPorta is the new dynasty TE4, according to DLF’s new October dynasty ADP. He’s overtaken Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, and more. Next up are the veterans, TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce.

Falcons vs. Jaguars

Travis Etienne was just fine in this London game, totaling 72 yards and finishing just inside the RB2 range. His usage is very encouraging though. Etienne saw 23 of the 27 backfield opportunities and played over 84% of the snaps. Things could have been even worse for Etienne without his agility. He’s third in the league with 190 yards after contact on rush attempts.

One player who was not fine in London was Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder. A pair of first-half ugly interceptions, including a pick-six, could’ve sent Ridder to the bench with Taylor Heinicke getting a shot. That didn’t happen and Ridder found Drake London for a touchdown early in the second half. I’m not confident that London, Kyle Pitts, and the offense would be in better hands with Heinicke, but I’d like to find out.

Dolphins vs. Bills

There were some underlying concerns out there that what we saw from De’Von Achane in Week Three was a fluke. You won’t hear any of that nonsense moving forward. Achane not only produced once again, totaling 120 yards and two touchdowns, but he also took over the backfield. Achane had 13 opportunities to Raheem Mostert’s 12, out-snapped the veteran 39-28 ran a dozen more routes. In just two full games of action, Achane is already the RB4 on the season. I’ve moved Achane up to the RB12 spot in my dynasty rankings and with several veterans ahead of him, there’s room to move even higher in the coming weeks.

Vikings vs. Panthers

Jordan Addison went without a catch in this game as the Vikings played from behind for much of the game. Regardless of this disappointing performance, Addison has been among the top first-month risers. The rookie from Southern Cal is up to the WR13 in our latest ADP.

We saw Cam Akers’ Vikings debut in this game, though Alexander Mattison remained the clear lead back. Akers did earn seven touches, playing 29% of the snaps. I am avoiding both of these backs and am willing to sell in dynasty leagues where I currently have them rostered.

Broncos vs. Bears

One of the top stories of the early season has been the struggles of Justin Fields, who was locked in as a first-rounder in offseason superflex startup drafts. Finally, against one of the league’s worst defenses, Fields came to life, notching his first career 300-yard passing game, as well as his first-ever four-passing touchdown performance. The downside is Fields still isn’t running, carrying the ball just four times for 25 yards. Fields only has 14 designed runs through four games, which is greatly limiting his weekly fantasy upside. I’ll be exploring trades to move on from Fields this week.

© Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Ravens vs. Browns

Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson made his NFL debut after starter Deshaun Watson was surprisingly ruled out. The former UCLA star had impressed so much in camp and pre-season that the Browns felt comfortable dealing veteran Josh Dobbs to Arizona. Against the Ravens, DTR faced a tough task and it showed as he threw for just 121 yards along with three interceptions. We can expect Watson back under center following the team’s Week Five bye.

I saw some concern from fantasy managers about Browns back Jerome Ford following this game. It was Pierre Strong who led the team in rushing and Ford got just nine of the Browns’ 25 total rush attempts. The good news is his usage is growing. Ford saw a career-high six targets and played a season-best 62% of the snaps. The Browns are sixth in the league with over 32 rush attempts per game, giving Ford a safe floor moving forward.

Steelers vs. Texans

The Texans are an excellent reminder of just how important a quality quarterback is to the entire state of a franchise. Rookie CJ Stroud has been amazing the past three weeks, which includes the Texans Week Four blowout of the Steelers. Stroud is a top-ten dynasty quarterback already, based on my updated rankings.

The past two weeks belonged to rookie Tank Dell but Week Four was Nico Collins’ turn. After his 7/168/2 stat line, Collins is up to the WR7 on the season and is averaging over 19 yards per reception, easily the most by any receiver with more than 15 targets on the year. Collins and Dell both belong in the top 30 of dynasty wide receivers. I’m going to make sure the Collins and Dell managers in my league are buying in as much as I am and if not, I’m willing to overpay to get them now.

Rams vs. Colts

Rookie Anthony Richardson returned to the field for the Colts and led his squad to a massive comeback that fell just short against the Rams. Richardson scored another rushing touchdown and passed for two. He’s tied for the league lead among quarterbacks with four rushing touchdowns despite missing a game and a half. The Florida product has lived up to the hype and is a more advanced and efficient passer than previously advertised. In the same tier as Stroud, Richardson is a locked-in dynasty QB1.

As good as Richardson was in that contest, the Rams rookie was just a little better. Wide receiver Puka Nacua bounced back from his “disappointing” five for 72 Week Three performance. Nacua once again drew double-digit targets, catching nine for 163 yards and the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Nacua is now the WR4 for the season and has already produced three WR1 games through four weeks.

Buccaneers vs. Saints

The Saints welcomed Alvin Kamara back to the lineup following his three-game suspension. His usage and resulting stat lines were…interesting. Kamara saw a near full-time role immediately, playing over 75% of the offensive snaps. Kamara caught 13 of his 14 targets, but that only resulted in 33 yards. Due to his usage alone, Kamara will be in the RB1 conversation for the remainder of the season. While he makes a solid trade target for contenders, obviously the ideal time to buy was weeks, or even months ago.

Commanders vs. Eagles

The Eagles offense is just not quite right and the main victim of their step back from last season’s amazing play is tight end Dallas Goedert. Through four games, Goedert has posted weekly finishes of TE50, TE19, TE13 and TE28. He has a total of 13 receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns in the season’s first month. We’re not giving up on Goedert and due to the terrible tight end landscape, he likely remains in lineups, but his value is certainly trending in the wrong direction.

Bengals vs. Titans

Speaking of disappointing offenses, the Bengals have to top the list after four weeks. Cincinnati hasn’t surpassed 24 points in a game this season, currently sitting at 1-3. Injury issues for Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins suggest things won’t be getting better anytime soon. Joe Mixon hasn’t finished inside the top-15 running backs once all season and Ja’Marr Chase has just one top-25 wide receiver performance. For now, the young nucleus retains its respective dynasty value, but a tipping point is near. Rookie quarterbacks Richardson and Stroud overtaking Burrow or Chase falling from his 1.02 startup spot are suddenly reasonable.

Raiders vs. Chargers

Lost in the impressive rookie performances from the first month have been the struggles, and I mean serious struggles, of Chargers receiver Quentin Johnston. No one really expected Johnston to come in and overtake veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but the story dynasty managers told themselves is exactly what has played out. One of those veterans deals with an injury and Johnston gets his chance. Unfortunately, Williams’ season is over but we still haven’t seen Johnston with a significant role. In fact, he hasn’t caught more than two passes or finished inside the top 90 weekly fantasy receivers. There’s a long way to go in Johnston’s career, hopefully, but he’s fallen way down my rankings already.

Patriots vs. Cowboys

It turns out that even with an offensive coordinator, Mac Jones just isn’t that good. In, fact, based on Week Four, he’s terrible. Jones threw for 150 scoreless yards and two interceptions before being benched for Bailey Zappe. It’s 2022 all over again. I doubt Zappe actually takes the starting role, which briefly happened last season, but Jones is clearly not the long-term answer either. I would say he’s holding back this Patriots offense, but other than struggling running back Rhamondre Stevenson, there’s really nothing to hold back.

© Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Cardinals vs. 49ers

The story for the Cardinals was rookie receiver Michael Wilson, who caught all seven of his targets for 76 yards and two scores. You already know about him though. Another Arizona rookie catching my eye is backup running back Emari Demercado. The undrafted rookie has seen his role increase by the week, as evidenced by his snap percentage, which has grown from 5% in Week One to 35% last week. Demercado had just one rush attempt but did catch three passes for 21 yards. He’s only a stash right now, but it’s better to be ahead of the pack with these types of players. I’ll be adding him everywhere I can this week.

Chiefs vs. Jets

No one saw this coming. The New York Jets nearly pulled off a huge upset over the Chiefs on Sunday night thanks to the play of quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson put together easily the best game of the season and arguably the best performance of his career, bringing the Jets back from a 17-0 deficit. Wilson was dealing and finished with 245 passing yards and two scores. It wasn’t quite enough but at the very least, this performance earned Wilson another few games to prove he is the quarterback this team needs. Dynasty managers remain uncertain.

Seahawks vs. Giants

Johnston is getting flamed for his poor start while Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems to be getting a pass. Again, we knew the rookie would be the third option at best but JSN has been almost non-existent and hasn’t even made the most of his opportunities. On Monday night, the rookie actually tied for the team lead with six targets, but he only produced five yards on three receptions. Smith-Njigba’s aDot of 2.8 yards is the lowest among any receiver with more than 12 targets. In September, JSN’s dynasty ADP was 16 overall. Now, he’s already fallen nearly two rounds to 38 overall. That makes him the fourth rookie receiver being drafted.

GAME PLAY

Here, I’ll share the moves I am looking to make in my personal dynasty leagues this week. That could include waiver wire targets and players to trade for or trade away.

The waiver wire is once again quite thin this week. Unfortunately, I already know Broncos undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin is rostered in each of my leagues but he is clearly the prize on the wire this week following the injury to Javonte Williams. Also, McLaughin’s usage was a really bad sign for veteran Samaje Perine, who saw essentially no role change following Williams’ departure.

I already mentioned that I’ll be targeting Cardinals rookie backup Demercado, and in addition to him, I’m simply monitoring the many injuries from Week Four, which could create waiver targets.

These include:

Mike Evans (add Trey Palmer & Deven Thompkins)
Kenny Pickett (add Mitch Trubisky in superflex only)
Pat Freiermuth (add Darnell Washington)

Last week, I mentioned some veteran receivers to consider targeting if your dynasty team is contending. While I wasn’t able to pull off any deals for Keenan Allen or Mike Evans yet, I eventually pivoted to searching for short-term running backs.

The current top-20 backs are filled with surprising players that might leave some dynasty managers stumped. When players surprise with their early-season strong performances, there are typically two reactions. Many managers simply overvalue their surprising players and value them like a reliable, long-term asset. Stay away from these people. Instead, find the manager who considers his player a found lottery ticket, ready to cash in at his first opportunity. These are where you can find the nice prices.

Some players to target whose price might not match their current production…

RB2- Raheem Mostert, MIA
RB3- Kyren Williams, LAR
RB8- Brian Robinson, WAS
RB10- David Montgomery, DET
RB13- Isiah Pacheco, KC
RB17- Jerome Ford, CLE
RB18- Zack Moss, IND

These players all carry a certain level of risk. Otherwise, their respective values would be much higher. Mostert and Moss could be losing their starting jobs very soon. Robinson has a limited role in the passing game, so when his team falls behind, he rides the bench.

My favorite target of this group is the veteran Montgomery. It’s not a great time to buy as he is coming off a huge performance in an island game, but keep Montgomery on your target list and strike when the time is right. By the way, Ford would be my Plan B if a Montgomery deal doesn’t work out.

GAME THEORY

In this section, I’ll be discussing any relevant dynasty strategy or simply any other topic on my mind.

I love collecting our October dynasty ADP. It’s one of the few, or maybe the only, in-season dynasty ADP resource. The first month of the season is among the times of year when player value changes most drastically, along with March (free agency) and May (NFL Draft.) Players breakout and suffer serious injuries and everything in between that impacts their respective values. We spend time debating and analyzing where those key risers and fallers should be valued knowing what we know now. Then I use ADP to actually find out.

Our latest collection of dynasty ADP won’t be posted on the site until it is complete sometime next week but I wanted to share a sneak peek with you now. Here are the top two rounds of our October DLF 1QB Dynasty ADP.

The top 24 players include some interesting tidbits, including DeVonta Smith climbing into the top twelve for the first time ever, Jordan Addison showing up as a big riser, and wide receivers predictably dominating the first round.

The players you really want to know about though show up in Round Three…

Puka Nacua is the obvious huge riser, climbing from 165 overall last month to the early-third round now. Through four games, Nacua already has notched three WR1 performances. That’s more than Drake London or George Pickens and only one behind Jerry Jeudy, who is in his fourth season.

On a pre-season episode of the DLF Dynasty Podcast, I predicted that Ravens rookie Zay Flowers would be a top 20 dynasty receiver by the end of the regular season. It didn’t even take that long. Flowers is the WR19 and a mid-third round pick after his solid start.

Not everyone is a riser. I posted a Twitter poll a couple of weeks ago pitting Rams teammates Nacua and Cooper Kupp against each other. While Nacua was the preferred option, many suggested that idea was outrageous. Here, the mock drafters agree with Kupp falling, but not far, from his 30 overall pre-season ADP.

Finally, the other en vogue rookie, De’Von Achane shows up as a top 36 overall player and the RB10. The sample size (and the player) might be small, but that doesn’t mean he should be dismissed, especially given the volatile state of the position.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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