I am a CPA who fits the typical accountant narrative. I enjoy writing technical accounting memos, accounting research (yes, it’s a thing), and analyzing the financial statements of a business. In accounting, you often must evaluate qualitative and quantitative factors during complex transactions to forecast future performance. I’ve found that the outlook and rationale of evaluating business transactions parallels another interest of mine, dynasty fantasy football.
In dynasty, we are given both quantitative (athletic scores, draft capital, college production, etc.) and qualitative (camp hype, team situation, injury history, etc.) factors that we must consider and evaluate to derive an estimate or projection of a player. Then we must take calculated risks based on our team’s overall financial statements (i.e., current roster and league). I could go on and on with accounting-based puns and comparisons, but I think you get it.
I will note that these will be in the form of “accounting memos”. For anyone who hasn’t been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose”, and then outline the applicable “guidance” or accounting literature utilized, provide background, followed lastly by the analysis and conclusion. The goal of this format is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic.
To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”. And yes, this is a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” and my wife did come up with it. For my first memo on DLF, I wrote about Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receiver, Skyy Moore. I hope you enjoy it!
The purpose of this memo is to evaluate the dynasty value of Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receiver Skyy Moore to examine his opportunity and value in 2023 and beyond.
Skyy Moore is 22 and heading into the sophomore NFL season after being selected 54th overall (2nd round) in the 2022 draft by the Kansas City Chiefs. Skyy is slightly undersized at 5’ 10” and 191 pounds and attended a non-Power Five college at Western Michigan. He is often projected to be a slot WR based on his stature and is also compared to Jamison Crowder and Golden Tate. This comparison was based on his run-after-the-catch ability and his ability to create separation through his burst and sudden route-running. However, during his rookie season, he struggled to get on the field and only produced 22 receptions for 250 yards and no TDs.
Please see the metrics and discussion points below on Moore:
- Breakout Age: 20.0 years old (62nd Percentile)
- 40 Yard Dash Time: 4.42 seconds (90th Percentile)
- College Stats (Western Michigan):
- 2019: 51 Receptions; 802 Yards; 4 TDs
- 2020: 25 Receptions; 388 Yards; 3 TDs (Only 5 Games)
- 2021: 95 Receptions; 1,292 Yards; 10 TDs
- DLF Dynasty Rankings:
- Overall: 105
- WR: 48
- Fun Stuff:
- Steve Smith Sr.: Skyy Moore will be a 1,200-yard receiver in 2023.
- Brett Veach suggested Wednesday (8-30-23) that Skyy will start the season in an every-down role.
- Patrick Mahomes said “I mean Skyy’s a great player. I think you could see at the end of last year how he was kind of picking the stuff up and making big plays. And I think that just kind of transitioned right into this season.”
Moore is heading into a pivotal season for his career. This memo will discuss his situation and opportunity in 2023 and whether he can become viable long-term in dynasty.
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best Dynasty Rankings in the Industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based upon real Dynasty Startups.
When evaluating an estimate, auditors are required to evaluate significant assumptions within each estimate. For Moore and his dynasty value, these assumptions are his situation, opportunity, and barriers to entry.
The most logical place to start when evaluating Moore’s value in 2023 is his 2022 performance. Auditors often have to test Management’s accounting estimates and utilize a “lookback basis”. During a look-back analysis, auditors review prior-period evidence to understand estimation inaccuracies and assess the reliability of Management’s estimation process.
When applying a lookback analysis to Skyy, his rookie season leaves a lot to be desired with only 22 receptions, 250 yards, a 27% snap share, and 2.1 targets per game. If you consider this in tandem with fellow rookies like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, and George Pickens all having over 800 yards and immediate NFL success, then his ranking of WR48 (backend WR4) appears even further unjustified and overstated.
However, when evaluating an estimate, auditors must consider that quantitative data can sometimes lead to inaccuracies. For Moore, the qualitative factors drive his value. He is in one of the best situations in the NF, linked to the best QB in football (Mahomes), one of the best offensive minds and play callers in the NFL (Andy Reid), and the highest scoring team on average (Chiefs led the NFL with 29.2 points per game in 2022) for the next 3 seasons. These considerations are what led Managers to draft him within the first round of the 2022 rookie drafts.
However, Andy Reid’s West Coast offense is widely considered to be amongst the most complex and difficult for rookies to pick up. This is corroborated by Andy Reid never having a rookie WR with a 1,000-yard season and only 3 having over 500 yards. Based upon this history, his rookie struggles, and dynasty ADP outlined below is to be expected. This might be a blatant example of recency bias at work. Recency bias is a type of cognitive bias that causes us to assume that future events will resemble recent experiences. His ADP decreased by 58 spots from 69 to 127 from July 2022 to July 2023. However, the situation that justified his original ADP still exists.
Next, Fantasy Managers should consider his opportunity in 2023. The Chiefs run one of the highest passing volume offenses in the league and ranked 5th in 2022 with 614 attempts. Managers should expect this to continue into the foreseeable future as Mahomes is signed for the next 9 seasons. It is reasonable to assume that 2022 is a good indicator of future performance. The table below shows the Chiefs leading pass catchers from 2022:
The Chiefs have 152 vacated targets (25% target share) which is primarily due to JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman leaving in free agency. When considering that Brett Veach (Chiefs General Manager) recently stated that Skyy should be a full-time starter in 2023, it would be reasonable to expect Moore to receive approximately between 60% and 80% of the vacated targets. See the analytic below which extrapolates and performs sensitivity on his projected target share at 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, and 100% of the vacated targets utilizing Mahomes’ average yard per attempt from 2022 of 8.1 yards:
Based upon this calculation, it would appear it is reasonable for him to receive between 90 and 150 targets. The table below displays the average targets received based upon fantasy scoring for 2022 (i.e., WR1 is Top 12, WR2 is 12 through 24, etc.) and the Chiefs’ target share needed to achieve that metric based upon the 614 attempts from 2022:
If he demands 80% or 70% of the Chiefs’ vacated targets, we can project that he will produce as a WR2 or WR3 with 122 and 106 targets, respectively. This is far higher than his current WR48 ranking.
Barriers to Entry:
Lastly, Fantasy Managers should consider Moore’s “barriers to entry” within the Chiefs offense. Barriers to entry is an economics and business term describing factors that can prevent or impede newcomers into a market or industry sector, and so limit competition. For Moore, his barriers are increasing his snap share and his fellow pass catchers in the Chiefs offense. Based upon his being on the field with the first team offense all of camp as well as the preseason, he will get the opportunity to begin the season as an every-down player. See the discussion below for his key target competition:
- Travis Kelce: The all-world tight-end should continue to demand his elite target share. However, Kelce is 33 years old and has been in the NFL for 10 years. His last-minute knee injury could be an indicator of things to come.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS earned 81 targets in 2022, which was the highest of his career. Based on his performance and never eclipsing 700 yards in his NFL career, I would not anticipate this to increase in 2023, especially considering the talent below.
- Kadarius Toney: Toney is special and is the wild card amongst this group due to his movement ability. However, he can’t stay on the field. I anticipate Andy Reid to have fun drawing up plays for Toney, but I expect them to be more gadgety in nature. Very few “gadget” players become fantasy-viable, especially after missing a majority of camp with another injury.
- Rashee Rice: Rice was drafted in the late 2nd round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He has a more prototypical size at 6’ 1’ and 204 pounds. However, we just saw Moore struggle to get on the field as a rookie in 2022. When considering that, in tandem with Andy Reid’s history with rookie receivers and his struggle with drops in the pre-season, I believe Skyy will seize the role early in the season and not give it back.
- Justyn Ross: Ross is a great story and was once an elite prospect at Clemson. However, he went undrafted. While that was primarily due to medicals, the data shows us that these players rarely become fantasy-viable.
It is reasonable to project that Moore could claim 80% of the vacated targets, which yields 122 targets and projects a top 24 PPR finish. Conservatively, if he claims 70% of the vacated targets, this would yield 106 targets and profile as a top 36 WR in PPR. Both are higher than his WR48 price tag.
Overall, there is going to be a fantasy viable WR on the Chiefs offense in 2023 and the foreseeable future. Patrick Mahomes is too good to believe otherwise. Moore has the lowest barriers to entry and will have the first attempt to claim that role. While he did not eclipse the 600-yard rookie threshold, I do believe that his situation and opportunity will win out and he will evolve into a long-term dynasty asset.
Heading into 2023, I am trying to buy Skyy Moore. I anticipate that he follows a similar career to Tyler Boyd and will always be a high floor player and consistent flex option with Mahomes fueled upside to be more. I value him closer to a high-end WR3 than a low-end WR4. I would move the following WRs and pieces for Moore:
- Treylon Burks (WR27): I believe in the talent, but if situation and opportunity make Skyy a target, they have to make Burks a fade.
- Mike Williams (WR39): If I told you that Mike Williams only had two top 24 finishes in PPR, would you believe me?
- DeAndre Hopkins (WR41), Mike Evans (WR37), and Tyler Lockett (WR46): I always think Managers overreact to the 30-year-old cliff, but then Cooper Kupp goes to a hamstring specialist for two days.
- Package of 2nd and 3rd Round Rookie Picks: Most of the time, these are easy to get back.
- Spicy Take: I sent a late first for Skyy Moore in a league. I would do it again, especially if I’m a contender.
“So we’re just a bunch of Minions — out there running.”