August Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers

Dynasty ADP is an ever-changing construct, and each position has its own variance and nuance. Some trends, however, do hold typically similar. Younger players rise while older players fall, to an extent.

Here we will examine some notable changes in the ADP landscape for wide receivers over the last month.

Let’s dive in.

WIDE RECEIVER SELECTIONS

The life expectancy of a running back has dwindled, and we have seen plenty of casualties of their contract situations this off-season. With that, many dynasty managers are approaching their squads with a heavier focus on wide receivers. Therefore, plenty of movement is evident throughout the startup process.

Here is the current visualization of August’s wide receiver ADP. The most recent mock draft data can be found in its entirety here.

NOTABLE SELECTIONS

I wanted to spotlight a couple of receivers before entering this article’s meat-and-potatoes portion.

Elijah Moore, CLE (85.0) +10.17

Moore was one of those disappointments that many in the fantasy community were unprepared for. From poor quarterback play to seemingly being in the doghouse, he produced far less than many had projected.

Now, getting a new start in Cleveland, Moore has continuously been praised during camp and preseason. Some excitement has returned and manifested in an incremental rise in ADP. With him going off the board as WR40, the potential reward outweighs the risk.

Gabriel Davis, BUF (94.67) +17.83

If one were to look up ‘post-hype sleeper’ in the fantasy football dictionary, Davis’s picture might be listed for the 2023 season.

After reaching an apex of 51 overall (early fourth round), Davis began to drop after failing to capitalize on cost. He fell to 115 overall (mid-ninth round) in May and is now going as WR45 at the back of the seventh/beginning of the eighth round.

Davis is still tied to Josh Allen in a passing offense and with an opportunity to carve out a reliable WR2 role in the Bills offense. Having a serious nose for the end zone makes Davis a buy-at-cost now versus where he was a year ago candidate.

WIDE RECEIVER RISERS

DeAndre Hopkins, TEN (83.33) +23.34

From August of 2021 to August of 2022, Hopkins dynasty ADP plummeted like Enron stock. His ADP fell from 18.67 to 102 during that span.

As we enter the 2023 season, Hopkins finds himself in Nashville, Tennessee, playing for a passing offense that ranked 30th overall in pass attempts and passing yards last season and one less passing touchdown, as a team, than Jamaal Williams scored by himself on the ground last season.

Granted, typically efficient Ryan Tannehill only played in 12 games and struggled with the absence of AJ Brown. Both factors contributed to a disappointing season for the Titans. Entering this season, Tannehill is healthy and playing for his future.

From week seven to week 16, Hopkins was the WR7 overall and showed little to no signs of missing a step as a commanding-targets aspect. During that stretch, he averaged 10.6 targets per game.

At current cost, Hopkins should be a trade target for teams that are poised to make a deep playoff run.

Skyy Moore, KC (100.5) +26.17

Versatile rookie wide receiver Moore felt very much like a dynasty lottery ticket last season, but with boosted odds. It was an Andy Reid offense led by Patrick Mahomes in the absence of Tyreek Hill.

Moore accumulated 274 scrimmage yards on 36 total attempts, leading to three fumbles and no touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, his ADP fell. A little bit of training camp hype and boom! He has risen 26 spots over the last month.

Moore will have some opportunities in a brilliant and explosive offense and has a skill set that could translate into relevance in the fantasy world. However, it is not a sure thing, and there are enough skeptics out there to warrant having some exposure.

Odell Beckham Jr, BAL (124.67) +20.83

Ah yes, the annual conversation of whether or not to draft Beckham Jr is again upon us. While his current tenth-round ADP isn’t frightening per se, there is an extensive range of outcomes for the 30-year-old receiver coming off of another knee injury and in a new offense.

Being selected as the WR55 does mitigate some of the risks of buying into a player at his age and with his injury history, much like Michael Thomas, who is also in this range. Both players have proven to be excellent receivers but have also struggled with injury.

Beckham did score five touchdowns on 44 receptions the last time we saw him on the field and could develop into another reliable red zone option for Lamar Jackson.

ADDITIONAL RISERS

Nico Collins, HOU (131.67) +14.33

Operating as the de facto WR1 in Houston, Collins has also enjoyed some positive reports out of camp and the preseason. At just 24 years old, he should have an opportunity to continue to build chemistry with rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. Investing at this price is betting more on the seasons to come than necessarily on a breakout this season.

Jalin Hyatt, NYG (140.17) +16.5

At this point, we are all well aware of how the Giants collected slot receivers over the off-season. They also drafted Hyatt, a vertical threat with 4.40 speed, to complement Darius Slayton presumably.

How this receiving room shakes out during the course of the season is going to be both fun to watch and simultaneously maddening for dynasty managers.

As a middle to late 11th-round pick, Hyatt can be considered an upside pick for rosters that played closer to consistent production from their assets.

Zay Jones, JAC (157.33) +22

After six seasons, Jones has finished with two in which he has seen 100 or more targets. One of them was last season, and the other was back in 2018. The 823 receiving yards were a career-best, and the five touchdowns represent the second-most of his career. Jones rebounded into relevance last season, while Trevor Lawrence blossomed into a good fantasy quarterback and still has room to grow. All of these things are good things.

To offer a more broad perspective, Jones did well while Calvin Ridley was not there. Ridley is returning and not only appears to be hungry to play football again but has looked very good thus far. If Ridley returns after an almost two-year hiatus at 75% of his former self, Jones could easily struggle to return to near 100 targets.

WIDE RECEIVER FALLERS

Treylon Burks, TEN (58.17) -17.17

In Sir Isaac Newton’s laws of motion, the third law states that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. As DeAndre Hopkins’ ADP has risen, Treylon Burks’ has fallen. He also suffered an LCL sprain during practice that may not allow him to be ready for the season opener. Between these factors, Burks has tumbled from WR19 to WR29 over the last month.

Once able to return to the field, Hopkins’ presence potentially benefits Burks. Hopkins will draw the fiercest defensive attention allowing other weapons to face softer coverage, paving the way for other weapons to have success.

Burks did see a 17% target share last season which could fluctuate given the presence of Hopkins. Burks appears to be poised to land in the WR3/4 range but outperforming that would not be a surprise in his sophomore season.

Jameson Williams, DET (88.67) -14.34

Dynasty managers who invested in Williams last season were doing so with the expectation of him missing time as he recovered from ACL surgery. Head coach Dan Campbell even publicly stated that they would be careful with his return and not rush him back. The initial investment was more for this approaching season.

By now, everyone is well aware of the six-game suspension. Then he pulled a hamstring in practice, taking valuable time and reps away. Frustration for managers over these circumstances is most likely one of the leading causes for Williams ADP to continue to trend down.

Williams entered July going as WR38 and has now fallen to WR42. It remains doubtful that invested managers are thrilled with a second consecutive shortened season. However, for those who remain hopeful of what he can be in the NFL, now may be the time to work out a trade for him.

Romeo Doubs, GB (123) -11

Jordan Love fell from QB19 to QB23 (17.83 spots) over the last month. Romeo Doubs fell 11 spots during that same time. Meanwhile, Christian Watson rose from WR21 to WR19. So, let’s dissect this for a moment.

Watson is the ceiling play. We saw that last season with his four-game, seven-touchdown tour. He is a freak athlete who is a threat to take a reception with any kind of space and turn it into a score. However, he averaged 9.55 PPR points in the four games after his scoring tour and failed to reach the end zone again.

Doubs profiles as the possession receiver for this offense and could easily lead the Packers in targets. While not as flashy or athletically gifted as his teammate, he offers PPR appeal as a safe-floor type of player.

When reading the tea leaves, it appears the dynasty community is not entirely sold on how reliable this offense will be this season, leading to peaks and valleys regarding draft value. As a tenth-round pick, Doubs does offer some PPR appeal, despite a lower potential ceiling than Watson.

ADDITIONAL FALLERS

Marvin Mims, DEN (127.67) -19

Tim Patrick, bless his heart, is out for the season again. It is difficult not to feel genuinely bad for Patrick, who has talent but has been on the wrong side of devastating injuries too many times in his short career.

However, it opens up room for some targets for Greg Dulcich and rookie Marvin Mims. As late as the injury to Patrick occurred, this data may not be as current as to where the market currently is on Mims, who should be trending upwards.

Jakobi Meyers, LV (131.5) -13.83

This offense will primarily funnel between two players. Josh Jacobs on the ground, who just agreed to a modified deal to return to Vegas and Davante Adams.

With Darren Waller off to New York, it leaves Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers to soak up the bulk of the remaining targets.

It is worth mentioning that Josh McDaniels pursued Meyers based on their shared time in New England. He will have a role and be involved.

The big question remains: how many targets will this offense produce with Jimmy Garoppolo under center?

Going off the board around the 10th round of a startup, 26-year-old Meyers is not a horrible pick and has some PPR appeal as the potential WR2 in this offense.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Wide receivers remain a core foundational piece of successful dynasty teams. Savvy managers should track both startup ADP and receiver values to help establish when the proper time to buy, sell, or hold becomes noticeable.

The position is deeper than others in fantasy football, creating more options to utilize high-upside players at the right acquisition cost to minimize some risk.

One of the goals of this article is to highlight not just the changes in ADP, but attempt to identify the cause. What circumstances could cause a wide receiver to excel or struggle? Too often, copying and pasting production without asking what changes could affect performance seems easy.