August Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs

The landscape of running backs in dynasty leagues is constantly evolving, akin to the ever-changing weather around us. We witness young stars who shine brightly and quickly vanish without warning. One moment, Todd Gurley reigns supreme; the next, he finds himself outside the league.

When it comes to your dynasty roster’s running back room, it is imperative to approach it like a revolving door at a stock market—buy low and sell high. Continuously keep an eye out for an escape plan before the inevitable age decline hits, while relentlessly seeking that undervalued gem hidden amidst the chaos.

This article examines the one-month changes in ADP for the position, focusing on risers, fallers, and notable selections from our August 1QB ADP analysis. Running backs experience significant fluctuations, unlike any other position. It is rare for me to completely disregard a running back. I am willing to buy or sell any running back based on its current market value, as it is the most effective way to achieve long-term profitability. Avoid becoming emotionally attached to these players; treat it as you would the stock market and adjust accordingly. For most of these players, their first contract marks their shelf life, and once they sign a second deal, it is advisable to consider selling immediately. Now, let us delve into the ADP.

Running Back Selections

Below is a visual representation of where running backs are being drafted.

Notable Selections

These are running backs I wanted to spotlight as I found their ADP movement to be particularly interesting.

Tony Pollard, DAL – RB8 (+14.83)

Just when you thought Pollard couldn’t rise any higher in ADP, he goes up another round into the second. As much as Pollard had already climbed this off-season, his ADP was still manageable due in large part to uncertainty surrounding the Cowboys potentially bringing in a free-agent running back. We have seen Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott sign elsewhere this past month, alleviating some of the concerns around a crowded backfield. Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are still available, but they are significantly less threatening than Cook and Elliott. Expect Pollard’s ADP to rise in September, he may even creep into round one.

Raheem Mostert, MIA – RB58 (+14.50)

Both Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr have risen in ADP this month because of the potentially serious shoulder injury to rookie De’Von Achane. This backfield was never going to be turned over to the rookie on his own, so those of you who bought low on Wilson or Mostert are now very happy with the late-round value you got on them. As word filters out of Achane’s injury severity, expect the duo of Mostert and Wilson to continue to climb. They are both injury risks and are getting up there in age, but at their current cost, they are great win-now targets in drafts.

Alvin Kamara, NO – RB29 (+9.33)

He is another running back riser with a predictable cause. Most people expected Kamara to be suspended somewhere between six and eight games, in the end, he was only suspended three games. This rather lenient punishment has caused his ADP to rise by almost an entire round, which is peculiar for an aging running back who has seen his efficiency slip. If you aren’t a win-now team, now is your chance to sell high on Kamara before the bottom falls out. Wait until he is back in the lineup, and has a good game, and then sell him.

Running Back Risers

Within the “risers” section, we see an odd collection of running backs, most are low-end options that have moved up based on perceived handcuff appeal. Most are just stashes with big upside in the event of a disaster.

Zach Evans, LAR – RB55 (+27.83)

Evans is the biggest running back riser of the month, and I’m not sure why. He has always been seen as a handcuff so the potentially volatile situation surrounding Cam Akers, and why that would cause a late surge in ADP is unclear. RB55 isn’t an astronomical price tag for Evans, it’s just confusing. The only explanation is that fantasy managers are scooping up every potential handcuff they can to hold through training camp.

Evan Hull, IND – RB63 (+23.50)

I move from a confusing riser to an easy-to-explained riser. Hull has seen his ADP shoot up by almost two full rounds amid trade talks surrounding Indianapolis starter Jonathan Taylor. He has become one of the highest sought-after handcuffs as most anticipate Taylor being moved to another team. If that scenario does play out, Hull is a potential league winner.

Additional Risers

• Khalil Herbert, CHI – RB34 (+21.50)
  • Many managers have avoided the Bears backfield as it appears to be a messy committee. As we near the regular season it is becoming evident that Herbert will get the first crack at being the lead back in Chicago. Whether he holds onto the starter’s job or not remains to be seen, but for now the ADP spike is the result of him being the first man up.

Running Back Fallers

The fallers section in the running back landscape is comprised mostly of running backs who were thought to be potential handcuffs but have since seen their team bring in added competition.

Eric Gray, NYG – RB76 (-30.34)

Gray’s ADP never got out of hand, but it began to rise as fears regarding Saquon Barkley’s contract situation led managers to grab the Giant’s handcuff. Barkley appears set to start the season as the Giant’s starting running back and will avoid a holdout and this has led those who were targeting Gray to pass on him. He is still a great handcuff behind Barkley, but now is much more of a longshot to hit.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC – RB69 (-23.00)

The little value Edwards-Helaire did have left has seemingly disappeared. Isiah Pacheco is the lead back in Kansas City. Add in the re-signing of veteran Jerick McKinnon and there is little hope left for the once bright star.

Additional Fallers

• Israel Abanikanda, NYJ – RB54 (-22.67)
  • Abanikanda was a hugely talented prospect who lost significant value when he was drafted into a crowded Jets’ backfield. His value took another significant hit in August as the Jets added veteran free agent running back Dalvin Cook to the team. Many had hoped that Abanikanda would be the temporary starter if Breece Hall were to miss time to start the season, but that role is now seemingly guaranteed to Cook.
• Michael Carter, NYJ – RB74 (-18.16)
  • Take everything I just said about Abanikanda and paste it onto Carter. Carter seemed to be destined for a third-down role as a pass catcher, but his value also took a huge dip with the signing of Cook. This is a backfield to avoid entirely.
• Samaje Perine, DEN – RB43 (-15.50)
  • Perine was one of the hottest handcuff plays of the off-season, at one point being drafted as if he were the starter in Denver. Recent news has indicated that Javonte Williams is likely to be ready early in the season, if not for week one. This news has seen stock in Perine plummet back down to its original value. He is still a valuable handcuff and has some standalone value as a pass-catching back, but the hopes of him being a sneaky starting running back have been dashed.

Discussion

August was a month that was largely affected by training camp hype and preseason explosions. We have seen large swings in value, mostly to projected handcuffs who seen their chances dwindle. We also seen several high-end starters creep up in value as the potential free agent landmines headed to other teams.