Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: NFC North
We are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next month (pending injuries) as compared to when the regular season is in full force.
In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!
Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:
- Player values were obtained from the combination of the most current ADP (pending the lead time necessary for authorship), and the DLF top-250 rankings;
- The league paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players in superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
- Opinions on players are my own and do not represent all of DLF; and finally,
- Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.
With that said, let’s continue with the NFC North! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.
Chicago Bears
Buy: Chase Claypool, WR (ADP = 186.7, Rank = 133.8)
As shown below, Claypool’s value has been on a steady decline since early 2022, when he was being selected just outside of the fourth round in startup drafts. I somewhat understand the initial portion of the plunge through the end of 2022, as Claypool’s third campaign saw him losing snaps to rookie George Pickens, followed by a midseason trade to the moribund Chicago Bears.
Given the meager passing game coupled with the need to learn a new offense, he was only able to compile 140 yards across seven games. Claypool continued to fall somewhat inexplicably even before DJ Moore’s arrival, and then even more so after, ultimately bottoming out as the WR81 at an ADP of 186.7.
Considering he started his career with back-to-back 800+ yard seasons, and could feasibly function as the second option in what has to be an improved aerial attack, a position as a low-end WR7 seems like an overcorrection. Only 25 years old Claypool should be entering the prime of his career, and he remains an athletic freak. Even if the Bears don’t light up the scoreboard in 2023, he could be onto a new team the following season.
I have no evidence and only a gut feeling, but I believe Claypool’s fantasy value is unfairly aligned with Chicago’s trade to select him. Yes, it was a horrific trade, as the Bears paid what ultimately became the 32nd pick in the draft for 1.5 guaranteed years of Claypool’s service. But this markdown in price provides an excellent opportunity for buyers.
Sell: Khalil Herbert, RB (ADP = 125.3, Rank = 104.9)
To me, Herbert is akin to the “Stop trying to make fetch happen” line in Mean Girls. Once David Montgomery was out of the picture, the fantasy Twittersphere (X-sphere?) felt assured that a fantasy breakout was a near certainty. However, the Bears front office disagreed, signing D’Onta Foreman to a one-year deal and drafting rookie Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the NFL Draft.
Both Foreman and Johnson provide bigger bodies, and could be in line for the valuable goal-line touches. To potentially counterbalance a loss of red zone work, Herbert would need to add value through the air, but unfortunately that’s something he just hasn’t proven to date with only 57 receptions across seven combined collegiate and NFL seasons. Given this, and even noting that he doesn’t carry a ton of value as a mid-range RB4, I’d still be willing to cash out given the current valuation.
Hold: Darnell Mooney, WR (ADP = 138.3, Rank = 122.9)
On what essentially amounted to a lost season for the entire passing offense, Mooney still managed to compile the second-most receptions and receiving yards on the team despite missing five games due to injury. This ultimately led to his dynasty value getting cut in half, falling from a perch just outside the fourth round in September, 2022, to an ADP of 107.0 in December of that same year. Though it has ticked back up in recent months, Mooney’s fall continued falling the acquisition of Moore.
Prior to that in 2021, Mooney was a 1,000+ yard receiver, and appeared to be on an ascending trajectory. Just like Claypool he’s still only 25 years old, and will be a free agent following the 2023 season. Also akin to his teammate, he has a legitimate chance at finishing second in targets on the team, which could lead to a potential ADP course correction. Coming off the board as a WR6 with a strong chance to outplay his ranking, Mooney makes for a solid hold candidate.
Detroit Lions
Buy: Sam LaPorta, TE (ADP = 117.8, Rank = 126.9)
Fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard! LaPorta monopolized targets and produced good numbers at a collegiate tight end factory specializing in pro-ready talent, aced the NFL Combine, was selected in the early second round by a good passing offense with a glaring need at the position, and has been the talk of the Lions’ off-season. These are all reasons why I selected him as the team’s likeliest riser a month ago, and nothing has since changed my mind.
The current chatter out of Detroit asserts that LaPorta will be a huge part of the offense, possibly to the point where he’ll trail only Amon-Ra St. Brown in targets. If quarterback Jared Goff continues to deliver as he did in 2022, that can and likely will lead to TE1 numbers in a barren wasteland of a position. Currently going off the board as the TE12 by ADP, I believe LaPorta will be a top-five positional asset by the end of the year.
Sell: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (ADP = 15.3, Rank = 18.5)
I’ll stop you right there. I don’t want you to actually sell Gibbs, who has an outside chance of challenging Bijan Robinson for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. But Detroit represents a team loaded with young, ascending talent and simply doesn’t have a good “sell” candidate. While I weighed what I perceived as the only other reasonable option (just writing “None” and moving on), ultimately I had to put something in this space!
While I realize this is similar to Joe Pesci’s speech in My Cousin Vinny regarding why he was wearing a circus tuxedo to trial, owners could consider selling Gibbs due to the fact that he’s climbed all the way to just outside the first round in DLF’s startup mock drafts. Not shockingly there are other heavy hitters in this range, including those with proven NFL talent. Risk-averse owners could consider selling for a guy like Travis Etienne or Rhamondre Stevenson, plus a sweetener on top. Teams needing receiving help could pivot to Devonta Smith or DK Metcalf. The fact is Gibbs is commanding top dollar on the open market, potentially presenting a chance to cash out.
Hold: Jared Goff, QB (ADP = 166.0, Rank = 175.9)
As alluded to above, Goff had a fine 2022 season, ultimately finishing as the fantasy QB9. All told he accumulated 4,438 passing yards and 29 scores, while completing 65.1% of his passes at 7.6 YPA and only turning the ball over eight times. Despite this, and despite Goff still being firmly in his prime at just 28 years old, he’s going off the board as the QB21 by ADP.
I don’t have major qualms with most of the players going ahead of him, but there are a few head-scratchers such as Jordan Love and the husk of Russell Wilson. There are also one-year wonders like Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, plus multiple unproven rookies. This isn’t to say Goff should be ahead of all these players, but he shouldn’t be going nearly seven rounds after Dak Prescott, either.
If you’ve read each part of this miniseries, you know the drill by now. Boring players who provide more fantasy value than dynasty value represent strong holds, and Goff is no exception.
Green Bay Packers
Buy: Tucker Kraft, TE (ADP = 217.3, Rank = 237.4)
The Packers might just have the most unresolved pass-catching hierarchy in the NFL. Receiver Christian Watson is the presumed alpha, but is still somewhat of a work in progress despite possessing exceptional physical traits. After him is a smattering of young but unproven talent, each with more than a few question marks.
As such my case for Kraft is simple – he’s the cheapest one! With an ADP in the early 19th round, the rookie is barely on the radar despite going just one round after teammates Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed. And while he had a down 2022 season, he broke out in 2021 with a fine 65-773-6 line, functioning as the team’s secondary pass-catching threat. While injury played a factor, Musgrave never broke out in college, and only managed two total scores in four years. Continuing, Kraft is an above-average athlete as evidenced by his performance at the NFL Combine.
Given this, it at least somewhat defies reason to simply assume Musgrave will beat out Kraft, or that Reed will join 3WR sets in 11 personnel instead of the two tight ends sharing the field in 12 personnel. Yet Reed is going off the board 8.3 rounds ahead, and Musgrave is going 5.3 rounds sooner. To be clear, neither player costs a ton, but even still Kraft stands as the arbitrage play.
Sell: Aaron Jones, RB (ADP = 66.8, Rank = 65.8)
Similar to the Lions, the Packers don’t really have a great “sell” candidate. And if I had a contending team, I’d be more than happy to hang onto Jones, last year’s PPR RB7 and a perennial high-end performer. Given the uncertainty both under center and at the pass-catching positions as detailed above, both Jones and positional cohort AJ Dillon could serve as the focus of the 2023 Green Bay offense.
Still, it’s prudent to note Jones will turn 29 in December, and he now has nearly 1,400 career touches to his name despite a (somewhat) smaller stature. While I’m not asserting the wheels will soon fall off, it’s at least reasonable to have the conversation. It’s also reasonable to note that gone is future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, with the unproven Jordan Love now under center. While this could lead to a higher utilization rate as noted above, that matters less if the overall offense is less efficient, and rushing lanes could be harder to come by if Love is unable to command the respect of the opposing defense.
To be clear, I’m not completely bearish on Jones. But other players in this ADP range include the younger Miles Sanders and Dameon Pierce, along with a mix of promising second-year players and hyped rookies like Jahan Dotson, Zay Flowers and George Pickens. Depending on the current state of your team’s roster construction, they could be more sensible pieces than an aging veteran.
Hold: Romeo Doubs, WR (ADP = 112.0, Rank = 139.9)
Something of a revelation as a fourth-round pick, Doubs started the 2022 season strong, earning starters’ reps early in the year.
As noted in his game log, he played 82% or more of the offensive snaps in weeks 3-8, where he was able to compile line of 24-232-3, good for a weekly 10.9 PPR points even with a Week 7 bagel versus the Commanders. Unfortunately he was injured corralling Rodgers’ first pass of the day, and missed the next month with a high ankle sprain. By the time he returned, Watson was running hot as the team’s leading receiver and Doubs was relegated to 3WR sets.
This is reflected by his lifecycle ADP, which peaked at 76.3 last October before falling to 119.3 in December, and then again following the NFL Draft (174.2) and the selection of Reed. Doubs has gained value back since, but is still well below his zenith.
Still, early reports out of the Packers off-season workouts noted that Doubs appeared to be Love’s go-to guy. Not only should it not be assumed that Reed will waltz into the team’s WR2 spot, but Watson isn’t the automatic WR1 despite his epic 2022 touchdown parade. This potential hedge makes Doubs a strong hold, if not an outright buy.
Minnesota Vikings
Buy: Justin Jefferson, WR (ADP = 1.0, Rank = 1.0)
Though I had to go back and forth on this one a bit, I finally came around and am willing to put my stamp on Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson. He seems like he might have a future in this league.
In seriousness, and as evidenced by both an ADP and ranking that view him as the consensus numero uno asset in all of dynasty football, it’s going to be nearly impossible to acquire the guy. Over the past six months of mock drafts, there was only one instance (out of six mocks each month) where he wasn’t selected first overall. You don’t need me to explain this to you.
With that said, trades #2, #4 and #5 show that it’s possible to get him relatively cheap. The others are what they are – you’re going to have to trade multiple high-end assets, including starting signal callers and superflex leagues. But even if you have to overpay, the fact of the matter is another ridiculous year of 120+ receptions and 1,700+ yards will drive his cost up even higher, even if he’s already the most expensive player in this hobby.
Sell: TJ Hockenson, TE (ADP = 41.2, Rank = 47.9)
I don’t have any inherent qualms with Hockenson the player, as his counting stats were superlative in 2022. And unlike Claypool above, the athletic tight end didn’t succumb to a new playbook upon his trade to the Vikings. Still, I’m unconvinced he should be going nearly two rounds ahead of fellow former Iowan George Kittle and three rounds ahead of Dallas Goedert.
Digging into Hockenson’s game log, he didn’t exactly provide the ceiling his yearly output would suggest, with only three games above 70 yards. He immolated the Giants to the tune of 35.9 PPR points, but otherwise only had one other score while donning a purple uniform. In fact, the combination of that clash with the G-Men and his early season annihilation of the Seahawks (when he was still with the Lions) accounted for just under 35% of his overall 2022 output.
Hockenson has the ceiling, and he has relative youth on his side, but his “meh” floor isn’t reflective of the 40th pick in startup drafts. The addition of first-round rookie Jordan Addison isn’t likely to help, as he should function as another reliable set of hands in the intermediate area of the field and a major upgrade on the aging Adam Thielen. While they’re not flashing in blinding red, these constitute a legitimate set of warning lights, and the reasons why I believe Hockenson is a sell at current cost.
Hold: Alexander Mattison, RB (ADP = 79.0, Rank = 87.3)
His name is Alexander Mattison… there are a million things he hasn’t done, just you wait!
Amongst these million things include finishing anywhere near the RB1 realm, as he’s largely been relegated to Dalvin Cook’s caddy. But now Cook is out of the equation, and Mattison suddenly finds himself with the keys to the kingdom. And yet as the RB25 by ADP, there’s clearly still room for growth.
Mattison doesn’t have the efficiency of his predecessor, and yet Minnesota still signed him to a two-year contract with $6.4 million guaranteed in an off-season where ball carrier values were depressed nearly across the board (apart from perhaps the aforementioned Sanders). His current competition consists of late-round picks Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, which on the surface is even less than what Cook had to face off with in Mattison. He’s also on a Vikings offense that finished the 2022 season seventh in both total yards and total points.
Still only 25 years old, the world seems to be Mattison’s oyster. Yet his current ADP, while not negligible, doesn’t account for his potential upside. A strong season could see him conclude with an ADP in the RB15-18 range, which (and stop me if you’ve heard this before) makes him a sensible hold.
The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.
| Conference | Team | Buy | Sell | Hold | ||||||
| Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | ||
| NFC North | Chicago Bears | Chase Claypool | 186.7 | 133.8 | Khalil Herbert | 125.3 | 104.9 | Darnell Mooney | 138.3 | 122.9 |
| Detroit Lions | Sam LaPorta | 117.8 | 126.9 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 15.3 | 18.5 | Jared Goff | 166.0 | 175.9 | |
| Green Bay Packers | Tucker Kraft | 217.3 | 237.4 | Aaron Jones | 66.8 | 65.8 | Romeo Doubs | 112.0 | 139.9 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | Justin Jefferson | 1.0 | 1.0 | TJ Hockenson | 41.2 | 47.9 | Alexander Mattison | 79.0 | 87.3 | |
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