Dynasty Decision: Courtland Sutton
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
One great year and four forgettable years makes for an interesting career. With Sutton, the talent is clearly there. He is a prototypical outside receiver who thrives going deep and can body smaller corners at the catch point and on in-breaking routes. With a new head coach in town, Sutton is at a crossroads for his NFL and fantasy career. Can he show that one great season wasn’t a fluke, or will he fade from relevancy and go down as a one-hit wonder?
Previous Performance
After being the 40th overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, Sutton saw the field immediately, leading the Broncos’ skill position players in both snaps and routes run. However, that play volume didn’t immediately translate to fantasy success, as he saw only 79 targets. This resulted in a disappointing WR49 finish, but there were flashes of potential during his rookie year.
In his sophomore season, he broke out in a big way, commanding 115 targets at an aDOT 12.3 yards to finish as the WR19 on the season. Big things were expected for his third season before a week two ACL and MCL injury ended his season. 2021 was a lost season; Quarterback issues, recovery from the knee injury, and a poor season for the Broncos meant Sutton finished outside the top 36 receivers yet again.
Heading into the 2022 season, it was all supposed to be different. The Broncos traded for Russell Wilson, who had unlocked several other deep threats for fantasy, and the hope was Sutton would bounce back hugely. That, sadly, wasn’t the case. Wilson was woeful, the new head coach was fired, and Sutton languished again as a replacement-level player for fantasy, finishing outside the top 36 yet again.
Situation and Usage
After that woeful 2022 season, it is all change again for Denver. They have another new head coach. However, this time, offensive guru Sean Payton is tasked with recovering the franchise and bringing the best out of Wilson. Payton has made a phenomenal career bringing the best out of bigger-body outside receivers who thrive on inbreaking routes. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham. Sutton will likely fill that role within Payton’s offense, which is exciting for fantasy.
Two weeks ago, there was plenty of competition for targets however, with the recent injury to Tim Patrick and the KJ Hamler release, it makes for a much less congested receiver room. There is the potential for the situation to be a massive positive for Sutton. If he can carve out the role as the X receiver, he will command a high target volume. If Wilson bounces back and Payton works his magic, this offense could be fantastic for fantasy. However, those are two big ifs currently, and there is a chance that Wilson does not bounce back; Sutton struggles to command a significant target share if Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims, or Greg Dulchich break out, and he is nothing more than a replacement-level player again.
Injuries
Health has been something that, on the whole, hasn’t been an issue for Sutton. He has only missed two games in five seasons outside of the horrendous knee injury due to a hamstring strain. He is now three seasons removed from the knee injury, so nothing should be causing any concern moving forward.
Contract
Sutton signed a four-year $60.8m deal in 2021, and that contract is now entering the point at which the guaranteed money is running out. He is on the books for this year, and while his cap hit in 2024 is not astronomical at $17.3, the Broncos could save just under $10m by opting to move on from him. This season will ultimately play a huge part in deciding whether Sutton is on the Broncos in 2024 or whether he is plying his trade in a different city.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR47 in July ADP and 104th overall. The trade analyzer has him worth a random second-round pick in a 1QB league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Sutton is a truly boom or bust option for your dynasty team. The range of outcomes for him this season ranges from him disappointing again, being released by the Broncos, and probably never being anything more than a fringe flex play for the rest of his career. To him, clicking with Wilson thanks to Payton, bouncing back to top 24 production, and continuing to be a reliable WR2/3 for your dynasty team for the next two to three years. Where he falls within that range, I struggle to determine. However, at WR47 and for the price of a future second-round pick, that is an attractive price to take the risk.
If you’re a nailed-on contender, I would instead opt for a surer thing if you’re trading away future capital or hold it until the season when a need may present itself. However, if you feel like you’re a fringe contender and want to swing for the fences to try and get yourself into contention, Sutton is the low-cost, high-reward option who could get you there.
Equally, if you’re in a rebuild situation and, rather than just accumulating future assets, want to take a swing on some player who could see a significant rise in value that you can sell off for a profit. Sutton could fit that mold very well. Worst case scenario, you can sell him for the price you’ve paid to acquire him during the season, as It’s hard to imagine his cost plummeting too far even if he doesn’t produce.
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