2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Cleveland Browns
Summer is the best time to evaluate dynasty assets and their place in the dynasty market. In this brand-new series, we will bring you a riser, faller, and longshot from each NFL team. We’ll cover dynasty values, potential trades, and overall team outlooks.
Let’s jump into the Browns!
Being from northeast Ohio, the Cleveland Browns are my favorite NFL team and I’ve stuck by them through the good times and the bad ones over the years. Well, I guess it’s been mostly bad times over the last 15 years. However, the Browns are ready to turn the corner both on the field and for your fantasy teams.
RISER: Deshaun Watson, QB
After returning from his suspension in week 13, Watson proved that not playing football for almost two years can leave you a little bit rusty. However, I think there are some reasons to be optimistic about him entering 2023.
Current Market Value
Watson is currently going as the 14th overall player, and QB10 in superflex drafts.
I don’t believe a little bit of rust over a six-game sample size is enough to warrant Watson falling to QB10 and sitting behind rookie Anthony Richardson, or Justin Fields.
Future Outlook
The main reason I believe that Watson will be an ADP riser is because he has shown us consistent fantasy football greatness in his past. Over a four-season stretch from 2017-2020, Watson finished as the QB1, QB4, QB2, and QB5. Since his rookie season, Watson has been an elite fantasy football asset.
The only reason I can come up with for Watson falling below Richardson and Fields is their rushing upside. However, Watson is a pretty potent rushing option himself and has never rushed for less than 27 yards per game in a single season. In 2018 he rushed for 551 yards and seven touchdowns.
Lastly, this Cleveland offense should be much improved in 2023. First off, they will have a full off-season and preseason preparing for Watson to be the week one starter. Second, the offense should be more open and pass-friendly in 2023 as the Browns pivot away from their run-first scheme. Finally, Watson will have much better weapons to throw the ball to this season. The front office spent all summer attempting to upgrade the pass catchers with Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, Marquise Goodwin, and Watson’s old TE Jordan Akins.
I think all of these factors will come together for Watson in 2023 and he will return to the level of an elite dynasty QB.
Trade Options
There have been a lot of trades involving Watson recently, but I want to focus on only superflex leagues and look at two interesting trades.
This first trade would be a no-brainer for me. I’d happily give up Tee Higgins for Watson in a superflex league and upgrade from a WR2 to a QB1.
This second trade has a couple of high-quality players involved. Josh Allen is the consensus second overall pick in superflex drafts and a dynasty darling but I would quickly move on from him if that meant picking up Watson AND Kyle Pitts. Tiering down to a player who has top-five overall upside along with acquiring a top-two dynasty TE would be a massive win in my eyes.
FALLER: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR
Peoples-Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the Browns over his three seasons with the team after being selected in the sixth round of the NFL draft in 2020. However, I think the good times are about to come to an end for DPJ in Cleveland.
Current Market Value
DPJ’s current ADP is 179th overall or the 77th WR. While that might already seem very late, I do not think the market has corrected enough on him based on the rapidly changing situation in Cleveland, specifically the pass catchers.
In April, DPJ’s ADP was WR76 and there’s been nothing but bad news for him and his dynasty owners. I’ll be very surprised if he earns consistent playing time, let alone beats this ADP.
Future Outlook
The reason I’m so negative about DPJ’s future with the Browns is due to all the things that the organization has told us about their confidence in him. Before the draft they sent away a second-round pick for Elijah Moore, and also signed speedster Marquise Goodwin in an attempt to bolster their lackluster receiving corps. The Browns then went back to the well and selected Cedric Tillman in the third round of April’s draft. Finally, there have been rumors all summer about Cleveland being interested in signing DeAndre Hopkins. Acquiring three receivers, and attempting to pick up a fourth, is not a sign of confidence in the players currently on your roster.
While Cleveland’s approach may seem drastic, they are absolutely correct in their assessment of DPJ’s skill. While exclusively used as a deep-ball threat early in his career, his performance has greatly fallen off as they’ve asked him to do more on offense. Even though his receiving yards have increased each season in the NFL, his Y/RR, his YAC/rec, his yards/rec, and PFF grade have all fallen each season.
Courtesy of PFF.
So not only has People-Jones been struggling, they’ve brought in a bunch of competition to potentially steal targets and snaps from him. The Browns know that he is better suited as a third or fourth receiver in an NFL offense, and I would be genuinely shocked if they extend him past 2023.
Trade Options
If I owned Peoples-Jones I would be looking to move on from him as fast as possible. Some people have soured on him, but there are still some owners that foolishly believe in the former Wolverine as evidenced by these trades.
Trading DPJ and Irv Smith Jr for DJ Moore seems like the most obvious trade of all time. Upgrading from WR80 to WR20 and only having to give up an oft-injured tight end is an easy choice.
This one may be a bit more controversial, but I’m much higher on Michael Thomas than I am on DPJ. We saw DPJ’s absolute ceiling last year with 60 catches and 800 yards. He will never return to those numbers with the competition he now has in Cleveland. Thomas, on the other hand, was a top-ten WR before his injury last season, has far less competition, and we know the kind of top-end talent he possesses if he stays healthy.
LONGSHOT: Jerome Ford, RB
Path to Relevance
Ford is currently going 171st overall or RB54 while not free in most startup drafts, this is late enough in the draft where a swing and a miss won’t hurt your team too much.
The reason I like Ford as a longshot is that there are two extremely clear paths to fantasy relevance. The first is his role as the clear backup to Nick Chubb. The Browns did not extend Kareem Hunt because of their confidence in Ford’s ability as the RB2 on their roster. If anything were to happen to Chubb, Ford would be the RB1 behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
Ford’s second path to relevance in this offense is if he is able to carve out a role similar to Hunt. Kevin Stefanski and the Browns have been notoriously cautious with Chubb’s workload in order to extend his career which gives a huge production boost to the other backs on this team. Hunt had a nice back-half of his career playing Robin to Chubb’s Batman. Ford may not even need an injury to garner eight to ten touches a game and carve out flex value in what should be a much-improved offense.
Case Against Him
The one cause for concern I’d have with Ford is the direction Stefanski plans to take this offense. There has been a lot of discussion in northeast Ohio about the Browns really opening up the playbook in 2023 and going with more three and four receiver sets to play into Watson’s strengths. If the Browns pivot away from their run-first identity, this could mean far fewer opportunities for Ford.
Verdict
Ford is basically free in trades at this point, so it’s not worth showing some of the trades he’s been a part of. He is usually available for a fourth-round rookie pick, or as an add-on to a bigger deal. If you’re able to steal him off of someone’s roster for a fourth-rounder, or get him on top of another player, I would definitely suggest doing that before he is more widely known.
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