Dynasty Rookies in June Dynasty ADP vs Redraft Rankings
This series explores rankings and ADP to find advantages in our dynasty leagues.
We’re getting closer and closer to the part of the year where I typically call ADP the official “preseason” version of dynasty opinions. Before we get there, I thought we’d take the opportunity to use June ADP to squeeze out a few smaller edges in dynasty before most leagues start getting ready for the season.
We left off last week mentioning that DLF rankings had preferences for four players, three of which were significant values according to redraft rankings (taken from FantasyPros.com). I thought we’d look a bit closer at that idea this week.
One of the last questions asked before the start of the season is: “Who is the deeper rookie prospect that might provide unexpected value this season?” and “Who will be the third or fourth-round pick who suddenly has a usable upside?” Redraft rankings should be able to give us an insight into this. So let’s look at which rookies are more valuable in those rankings vs DLF ADP.
You can find our DLF Ranks here, the June Superflex ADP here, and FantasyPros rankings here.
DLF Rookie Draft Board (Based on ADP)
I make a rookie draft board to compare rankings by separating rookies in DLF ADP and then organizing them in the same order as a 12-team superflex draft. By doing it this way, we get a sense of how high drafters are on each rookie in a startup right now, practically.
Applying our formula for ranking differences to DLF ADP average and FantasyPros rankings allows us to see, position by position, who stands out.
Quarterbacks
If you’re looking for paths to opportunity at the most valuable position in superflex for 2023, redraft has you covered.
With the concern over Kyler Murray‘s availability to start this year – and the current depth chart featuring Colt McCoy behind him – redrafters think Clayton Tune (the fifth-round signal caller from Houston in the American Conference) might be worth a roster spot in 2023.
Running Back
Essentially redraft ranks are prioritizing the running back position across the board. That’s sensible since rookie running backs are by far the most likely to produce in their first year and produce for a larger portion of their rookie season.
This makes the few minor exceptions – Kendre Miller and Tyjae Spears – more notable.
While both are still drafted in the same theoretical draft “round” (Miller inside the first 12 picks, Spears inside the top 24) both are drafted behind a couple of other players at the same position when compared to Dynasty ADP.
Redraft ranks also seem willing – without the risk of being saddled with a bad result – to bet a little harder on the split backfields of Jacksonville and Seattle. Both Zach Charbonnet and Tank Bigsby are drafted and valued above other rookie players relative to DLF ADP.
If you are looking for some late-round pick advice on deeper running backs, redraft prefers the following in round four and beyond:
- Deuce Vaughn, RB DAL
- Sean Tucker, RB TB
- Evan Hull, RB IND
Wide Receiver
I think it’s interesting that both Zay Flowers and Jonathan Mingo have lower expectations in redraft.
Redraft is aware of them – they are both drafted in the top 18 overall rookies. But Flowers gets taken as the tenth rookie, below Quentin Johnston, who is also taken two spots higher (sixth overall) than DLF ADP.
At the same time, Mingo’s truthers need points for their non-points-scoring season opinion to pay off, but redraft is less hopeful. On the other hand, those who chose Johnston over Flowers this year in the rookie draft may be rewarded.
The expectation for Michael Wilson is also noticeably lower in redraft than dynasty, which doesn’t bode well for his value in a year.
There are three wide receivers outside the third round for a dynasty rookie draft that redraft likes more this year.
- Jalin Hyatt, WR NYG
- Kayshon Boutte, WR NE
- Xavier Hutchinson, WR HOU
Boutte and Hutchinson look like redraft is taking shots on “weaker”, or less certain, depth charts, while Hyatt’s skill set (downfield targets) may be more tempting for a single-season league.
Tight End
Redraft hates tight end rookies, which makes sense since they do the least in their rookie year compared to other positions. The one player redraft is willing to like as well as DLF ADP? Sam LaPorta.
That’s about all I have for you this week. Make sure to check the DLF Trade Finder for ideas on how or what to send for these players in offers or contact any of our rankers for explanations or ideas as to why they may be good targets.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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