2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Brenton Strange
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Brenton Strange
Position: Tight End
Pro Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
College Team: Penn State
Draft Status: Round Two, Pick 61
My hands tremble as my heart races, and beads of sweat begin to mark my brow. Don’t do it, don’t do it, don’t do it. But alas, it’s the devil on my shoulder who ultimately emerges victorious as the angel opposite him disperses into the ether…
On Day Two of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars made a selection that many in the community found to be a bit……….. Strange.
And we’re off!
When it comes to the tight end position, inclusive of players drafted in the early rounds, I’m mainly agnostic to the year-one scenario, as rookies rarely produce. There are indeed exceptions to the rule, but they are just that – exceptions. So while the Jaguars’ 2023 roster construction is important, I’m not banking on rookie production, regardless.
The Jaguars’ current roster represents something of a double-edged sword. On one side, 2021 #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence took a big step forward in his sophomore season, finishing in the top ten in terms of completions, passing yards, and touchdowns. On a weekly basis, he provided 55.8 points to his pass catchers, which helped support the PPR WR12 in Christian Kirk and WR26 in Zay Jones, along with the TE5 in Evan Engram.
Unfortunately for Strange, not only are all three of these players returning for the 2023 season, but they will be joined by former Falcons first-round receiver Calvin Ridley. Even running back Travis Etienne managed to siphon off another 45 targets. Pending a cataclysmic series of injuries, it’s hard to see Strange securing anything more than a negligible slice of the receiving pie.
TALENT
Brenton Strange Combine results:
Height: 6′ 3 ¾”
Weight: 253 lbs
Arm: 31 1/8”
Hand: 9 5/8”
40-Yard Dash: 4.7 seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.57 seconds
Vertical Jump: 36.0″
Broad Jump: 9′ 10″
This extensive video shows an interesting if limited and unspectacular player. What first sticks out is Strange’s versatility, as you’ll see him lined up in-line, out wide, and even as an H-back. I believe this is important, as Strange’s presence on the field shouldn’t telegraph the offense’s intent, meaning he has every-down potential.
Also of note, Strange isn’t going to be a team’s deep threat. He is tasked with getting open anywhere from the line of scrimmage through the first down marker, with the hope he’ll add a few yards after the catch using his large and somewhat stocky frame (this likely correlates to his 10-yard split noted below). You’ll see a decent chunk of tight end screens, with Strange showing an ability to get a cheap 4 – 6 yards. Importantly, you can see he knows when to break off routes, disengage with blockers, and find soft spots in the defense, traits that can turn him into a scrambling quarterback’s best friend. He is also a solid hands catcher and routinely snatches the ball away from his body.
I find it fascinating watching Strange move in the open field. When he goes north to south, he reminds me somewhat of Vinnie Jones’ Juggernaut character in X-Men as an unstoppable force. He displays an awkward, lumbering gait similar to Rob Gronkowski, where he’s actually moving a bit faster than it looks. When Strange has a head of steam, he pinballs off attempts to tackle him high and can take defenders for a ride. He becomes much easier to tackle if the defender reaches him before he gains momentum, and he needs to improve his stiff arm. Unfortunately, he doesn’t find the open field often enough, and he’s at his worst, moving horizontally and becoming simpler to bring down. Concluding, he shows susceptibility to tacklers going low, though he executes an occasional hurdle, and displayed an improved ability to win as the low man by his senior year.
Strange’s Combine metrics are something of a mixed bag. In terms of height and agility, he’s decidedly subpar. Conversely, he is a bit faster than average with elite burst and shows an explosion in terms of his leaping ability. This mishmash of traits leaves Strange without a single comparable player >80%, with low-end comparisons including Charlie Woerner, Wes Saxton, and Tommy Tremble, and higher-end comparisons including Isaiah Likely, Dallas Clark, and Daniel Bellinger. Fellow 2023 rookie Tucker Kraft also makes this list.
OPPORTUNITY
As noted previously, the Jaguars depth chart is pretty well set for 2023:
Pending injury, if Strange is anywhere higher than the sixth on the list in terms of targets this coming season, you’ll be able to knock me over with a feather. Kirk was a 1,100-yard receiver in 2022 while also securing eight scores. We last saw Ridley in 2021, when he only played in five games before sitting the rest of the year to work on his mental health. He then missed the entire 2022 season due to a suspension for gambling on Falcons games.
Before that, though, Ridley was looking like an elite dynasty asset. In 15 games in 2020, he put forward a stellar line of 90-1,374-9 on his way to a finish as the PPR WR5. Continuing, he managed to compile nearly 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons. If he can return to form, Ridley and Kirk should function as the two main targets on the Jaguars offense.
Jones managed 121 targets in 2022 but was fairly inefficient, with them gaining only 823 yards. Still, he’s now likely one of the better WR3s in the league. None of the other receivers represent immediate speed bumps.
Engram is back on the franchise tag and looks to build off his 73-766-4 line in 2022. Still, he is now 28 and will turn 29 just before the season starts, and despite significant chatter, he has not yet been signed to a long-term deal. He also managed an entire season in 2022 and only missed one game over the last three years following an injury-marred start to his career. Nominal second-stringer Luke Farrell has secured 11 receptions over two years, and the 2021 fifth-round pick shouldn’t represent a hurdle for Strange.
After 2023, however, things could get interesting. Neither Engram nor Ridley is under contract for 2024, and the team has potential outs on Kirk’s and Jones’ contracts. If you’re investing in Strange, you’re in it for future appeal.
RISK
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
As can be discerned from Strange’s statistics, there is significant risk in projecting a path forward, considering he never really broke out in college and never bested a 10% target share in any given season. With that said the 2022 Penn State Nittany Lions feature a three-headed monster at the position, with Theo Johnson compiling a 20-328-4 line, and Tyler Warren also chipping in with a 10-123-3 line. Notably, Johnson was a 4* recruit and the TE3 in the 2020 recruiting class, with Warren a 3* recruit in the same class. I’m not saying this to make excuses for Strange, but the fact is Penn State employed multiple schemes for the position. Strange led the way in snaps (611), but Johnson also played 478, and Warren chipped in 250.
Strange’s modest numbers also led the tight end room in 2021, though Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington functioned as the 1-2 punch on offense. In 2020 Strange picked up for Pat Freiermuth after he was ruled out due to injury following a four-game stint.
So what’s the deal?
Part of his low production may be due to James Franklin’s offensive scheme, as even Freiermuth never eclipsed 507 receiving yards in a given season. Mike Gesicki fared a bit better with two seasons of 563+ receiving yards. But, this also may not be an inherent 1:1 as Penn State hired Mike Yurcich as Offensive Coordinator for Strange’s final two collegiate seasons. Additionally, both former second-round picks scored the ball more frequently than Strange while playing with future NFL talent as target competition (Chris Godwin, DaeSean Hamilton, and Juwan Johnson for Gesicki; and KJ Hamler, Dotson and Washington for Freiermuth).
Whatever the reason, the numbers just weren’t there for Strange. He definitely has the draft capital, despite being projected as more of a mid-round pick. Whether it was due to the aberrant run at the position (Strange was the sixth tight end taken) remains to be seen.
MARKET
Data Courtesy of MFL Rookie ADP on DLF.
So I guess I’ll be buying Strange in my leagues? Luke Schoonmaker, a fellow tight end with a similar production and draft profile to Strange, is going a full round sooner despite a similarly crowded depth chart—Ditto Darnell Washington, who was taken a round later. Players picked on Day 3 (Kayshon Boutte, really??) are also going ahead of Strange. A superflex format does little to his value as he only falls four slots.
Data Courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer.
The DLF Trade Analyzer shows a similar level of disrespect, as Strange is barely on the radar and roughly worth a fourth-round pick. Of the players listed, I’d likely prefer Terrace Marshall and maybe Corey Davis, but the others on the list do nothing for me in terms of future potential. Still, dynasty owners and rankers alike are bearish on the Jaguars rookie.
All told, Strange represents a good late-round target with the knowledge he may be something of a roster clogger until he (hopefully) develops. Despite all the chatter, Engram still hasn’t been signed to a long-term deal, and the action of using second-round draft capital to select a do-it-all tight end speaks louder than the words and rumors of an extension for the veteran. It’s possible Strange doesn’t pan out as his sparse collegiate profile suggests. However, the actions of an improving team with a solid front office still have not reverberated throughout dynasty aficionados, making the rookie a solid, if Strange, buy.
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Brenton Strange
Position: Tight End
Pro Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
College Team: Penn State
Draft Status: Round Two, Pick 61
My hands tremble as my heart races, and beads of sweat begin to mark my brow. Don’t do it, don’t do it, don’t do it. But alas, it’s the devil on my shoulder who ultimately emerges victorious as the angel opposite him disperses into the ether…
On Day Two of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars made a selection that many in the community found to be a bit……….. Strange.
And we’re off!
When it comes to the tight end position, inclusive of players drafted in the early rounds, I’m mainly agnostic to the year-one scenario, as rookies rarely produce. There are indeed exceptions to the rule, but they are just that – exceptions. So while the Jaguars’ 2023 roster construction is important, I’m not banking on rookie production, regardless.
The Jaguars’ current roster represents something of a double-edged sword. On one side, 2021 #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence took a big step forward in his sophomore season, finishing in the top ten in terms of completions, passing yards, and touchdowns. On a weekly basis, he provided 55.8 points to his pass catchers, which helped support the PPR WR12 in Christian Kirk and WR26 in Zay Jones, along with the TE5 in Evan Engram.
Unfortunately for Strange, not only are all three of these players returning for the 2023 season, but they will be joined by former Falcons first-round receiver Calvin Ridley. Even running back Travis Etienne managed to siphon off another 45 targets. Pending a cataclysmic series of injuries, it’s hard to see Strange securing anything more than a negligible slice of the receiving pie.
TALENT
Brenton Strange Combine results:
Height: 6′ 3 ¾”
Weight: 253 lbs
Arm: 31 1/8”
Hand: 9 5/8”
40-Yard Dash: 4.7 seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.57 seconds
Vertical Jump: 36.0″
Broad Jump: 9′ 10″
This extensive video shows an interesting if limited and unspectacular player. What first sticks out is Strange’s versatility, as you’ll see him lined up in-line, out wide, and even as an H-back. I believe this is important, as Strange’s presence on the field shouldn’t telegraph the offense’s intent, meaning he has every-down potential.
Also of note, Strange isn’t going to be a team’s deep threat. He is tasked with getting open anywhere from the line of scrimmage through the first down marker, with the hope he’ll add a few yards after the catch using his large and somewhat stocky frame (this likely correlates to his 10-yard split noted below). You’ll see a decent chunk of tight end screens, with Strange showing an ability to get a cheap 4 – 6 yards. Importantly, you can see he knows when to break off routes, disengage with blockers, and find soft spots in the defense, traits that can turn him into a scrambling quarterback’s best friend. He is also a solid hands catcher and routinely snatches the ball away from his body.
I find it fascinating watching Strange move in the open field. When he goes north to south, he reminds me somewhat of Vinnie Jones’ Juggernaut character in X-Men as an unstoppable force. He displays an awkward, lumbering gait similar to Rob Gronkowski, where he’s actually moving a bit faster than it looks. When Strange has a head of steam, he pinballs off attempts to tackle him high and can take defenders for a ride. He becomes much easier to tackle if the defender reaches him before he gains momentum, and he needs to improve his stiff arm. Unfortunately, he doesn’t find the open field often enough, and he’s at his worst, moving horizontally and becoming simpler to bring down. Concluding, he shows susceptibility to tacklers going low, though he executes an occasional hurdle, and displayed an improved ability to win as the low man by his senior year.
Strange’s Combine metrics are something of a mixed bag. In terms of height and agility, he’s decidedly subpar. Conversely, he is a bit faster than average with elite burst and shows an explosion in terms of his leaping ability. This mishmash of traits leaves Strange without a single comparable player >80%, with low-end comparisons including Charlie Woerner, Wes Saxton, and Tommy Tremble, and higher-end comparisons including Isaiah Likely, Dallas Clark, and Daniel Bellinger. Fellow 2023 rookie Tucker Kraft also makes this list.
OPPORTUNITY
As noted previously, the Jaguars depth chart is pretty well set for 2023:
Pending injury, if Strange is anywhere higher than the sixth on the list in terms of targets this coming season, you’ll be able to knock me over with a feather. Kirk was a 1,100-yard receiver in 2022 while also securing eight scores. We last saw Ridley in 2021, when he only played in five games before sitting the rest of the year to work on his mental health. He then missed the entire 2022 season due to a suspension for gambling on Falcons games.
Before that, though, Ridley was looking like an elite dynasty asset. In 15 games in 2020, he put forward a stellar line of 90-1,374-9 on his way to a finish as the PPR WR5. Continuing, he managed to compile nearly 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons. If he can return to form, Ridley and Kirk should function as the two main targets on the Jaguars offense.
Jones managed 121 targets in 2022 but was fairly inefficient, with them gaining only 823 yards. Still, he’s now likely one of the better WR3s in the league. None of the other receivers represent immediate speed bumps.
Engram is back on the franchise tag and looks to build off his 73-766-4 line in 2022. Still, he is now 28 and will turn 29 just before the season starts, and despite significant chatter, he has not yet been signed to a long-term deal. He also managed an entire season in 2022 and only missed one game over the last three years following an injury-marred start to his career. Nominal second-stringer Luke Farrell has secured 11 receptions over two years, and the 2021 fifth-round pick shouldn’t represent a hurdle for Strange.
After 2023, however, things could get interesting. Neither Engram nor Ridley is under contract for 2024, and the team has potential outs on Kirk’s and Jones’ contracts. If you’re investing in Strange, you’re in it for future appeal.
RISK
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
As can be discerned from Strange’s statistics, there is significant risk in projecting a path forward, considering he never really broke out in college and never bested a 10% target share in any given season. With that said the 2022 Penn State Nittany Lions feature a three-headed monster at the position, with Theo Johnson compiling a 20-328-4 line, and Tyler Warren also chipping in with a 10-123-3 line. Notably, Johnson was a 4* recruit and the TE3 in the 2020 recruiting class, with Warren a 3* recruit in the same class. I’m not saying this to make excuses for Strange, but the fact is Penn State employed multiple schemes for the position. Strange led the way in snaps (611), but Johnson also played 478, and Warren chipped in 250.
Strange’s modest numbers also led the tight end room in 2021, though Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington functioned as the 1-2 punch on offense. In 2020 Strange picked up for Pat Freiermuth after he was ruled out due to injury following a four-game stint.
So what’s the deal?
Part of his low production may be due to James Franklin’s offensive scheme, as even Freiermuth never eclipsed 507 receiving yards in a given season. Mike Gesicki fared a bit better with two seasons of 563+ receiving yards. But, this also may not be an inherent 1:1 as Penn State hired Mike Yurcich as Offensive Coordinator for Strange’s final two collegiate seasons. Additionally, both former second-round picks scored the ball more frequently than Strange while playing with future NFL talent as target competition (Chris Godwin, DaeSean Hamilton, and Juwan Johnson for Gesicki; and KJ Hamler, Dotson and Washington for Freiermuth).
Whatever the reason, the numbers just weren’t there for Strange. He definitely has the draft capital, despite being projected as more of a mid-round pick. Whether it was due to the aberrant run at the position (Strange was the sixth tight end taken) remains to be seen.
MARKET
Data Courtesy of MFL Rookie ADP on DLF.
So I guess I’ll be buying Strange in my leagues? Luke Schoonmaker, a fellow tight end with a similar production and draft profile to Strange, is going a full round sooner despite a similarly crowded depth chart—Ditto Darnell Washington, who was taken a round later. Players picked on Day 3 (Kayshon Boutte, really??) are also going ahead of Strange. A superflex format does little to his value as he only falls four slots.
Data Courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer.
The DLF Trade Analyzer shows a similar level of disrespect, as Strange is barely on the radar and roughly worth a fourth-round pick. Of the players listed, I’d likely prefer Terrace Marshall and maybe Corey Davis, but the others on the list do nothing for me in terms of future potential. Still, dynasty owners and rankers alike are bearish on the Jaguars rookie.
All told, Strange represents a good late-round target with the knowledge he may be something of a roster clogger until he (hopefully) develops. Despite all the chatter, Engram still hasn’t been signed to a long-term deal, and the action of using second-round draft capital to select a do-it-all tight end speaks louder than the words and rumors of an extension for the veteran. It’s possible Strange doesn’t pan out as his sparse collegiate profile suggests. However, the actions of an improving team with a solid front office still have not reverberated throughout dynasty aficionados, making the rookie a solid, if Strange, buy.
