Dynasty Twitter Observations: Will Former Packers Cut into Garrett Wilson’s Targets?

Michael Moore

We’ve survived the NFL Draft. Rookie contracts are being signed, undrafted rookies are latching on to teams, and we have a better idea of what teams will look like for the 2023 season. Below are some tweets that stuck out this week that will shape those rosters.

Inside Cobb

Dynasty managers knew that part of the Aaron Rodgers-to-the-Jets storyline would include Rodgers bringing his buddies along. First, it was Allen Lazard and now Randall Cobb will join 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson in the Jets receivers room. It’s debatable if either Lazard or Cobb would have had it as good as they will in New York with any other franchise but here we are, for the 2023 season at least. Both will have guaranteed success thanks to Rodgers perpetually leaning on them in the passing game.

The bigger question is how will it affect Wilson. He managed a 1,000-yard season despite the Jets’ offense cycling through three different quarterbacks. He was a top-ten draft pick whose pro (and dynasty) career is set for takeoff, no pun intended.

Dynasty Impact: Garrett Wilson is going to be a popular player in both redraft and dynasty leagues this off-season. He was already being compared to Davante Adams before Rodgers all but confirmed the similarities. However, in looking at the Jets’ passing game, I would have some concern that the duo of Lazard and Cobb are going to siphon off targets from Wilson. Last year, Wilson led the team by a wide margin with 147 targets. The next two receivers on the Jets roster in terms of targets were Elijah Moore and Corey Davis who combined for just 131 targets combined. If Rodgers were to look away from Wilson and more at Lazard and, God forbid, Cobb, it would put a serious damper on Wilson’s short-term future – a future that was looking pretty good even before Rodgers arrived.

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The hope for Wilson is to keep the status quo as far as being the leading receiver and maintaining his target share. However, if you’re a current Wilson dynasty manager and someone offers you a King’s Ransom for him, you have to consider it. Check out the DLF Trade Finder for some recent examples and see if they whet your appetite.

Stairway to Devon

It’s never too early for the hype train to leave the station and we already have a few just days after the NFL Draft. Third-round pick Devon Achane has already popped up as a favorite sleeper for both real-life and fantasy analysts after being drafted by the Dolphins. His speed separates him from every other running back along with his small stature. When you couple his speed with the Dolphins running back depth – which is shakier than it appears – you have a perfect storm of hype.

Current starter Raheem Mostert is already 30 with the 2022 season being just the second of his career where he appeared in more than nine games. Behind him is Jeff Wilson Jr, a mid-season pickup from San Francisco whose 176 carries last season represent more than ⅓ of his career total after various injuries kept him out of games. For Achane, the opportunity may appear sooner than he – or the Dolphins – planned.

Dynasty Impact: It didn’t take long for Achane to shoot up dynasty ADP. He’s now worth more than both Mostert and Wilson, two running backs who are past the age-27 cliff.

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And even though Achane’s ADP started high, it’s not crazy either. According to the DLF ADP tool, he’s only viewed as a top-30ish running back. That’s a great value for a player who could be starting soon and, even if he’s not starting, being very involved. Achane will never be a bell cow so don’t expect a RB1 for your team. But he could be a valuable RB2, especially in PPR leagues.

Jerick Hunter

It may seem like a small move but the re-signing of Jerick McKinnon by the Chiefs provides some much-needed clarity for the Chiefs offense. For McKinnon, he appears to have found a home in Kansas City after signing a big deal in San Francisco that never panned out. He was picked up off the scrap heap by Andy Reid and the Chiefs and not only became a trusted pass catcher out of the backfield but was third on the offense in receptions behind Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster and second in receiving touchdowns. In PPR leagues last year, McKinnon was an RB2.

Dynasty Impact: Not only is the re-signing of McKinnon good for him, but it also locks in second-year running back Isiah Pacheco as the two-down runner. Pacheco totaled 170 carries in his rookie season and averaged nearly five yards per carry. He won the starting job over former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire after a few weeks of battling it out. But from week ten on, Pacheco had double-digit carries in all but two games. Make no mistake, Pacheco will never be a bell cow (in Kansas City, at least) but if he can be the lead runner throughout the season, he could get to 1,000 yards on the ground.

Both he and McKinnon saw their dynasty value dip this off-season.

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Of course, it coincided with the recent NFL Draft and the influx of rookie running backs that flooded the rankings. Don’t overlook McKinnon or Pacheco as good values for the running back room on your dynasty team.

michael moore
Dynasty Twitter Observations: Will Former Packers Cut into Garrett Wilson’s Targets?