2023 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Monday Mock Piggyback
Welcome back to another edition of the 2023 off-season mock draft series. This time around, I’m going to be using some actual rookie data for the first time. DLFs very own Ryan McDowell has been writing his McDowell’s Monday Mocks Series for a while, looking at various mock-related topics. This past Monday, for the first time this season, McDowell gave the dynasty world a sneak peek at the emerging incoming rookie ADP.
Using the information from that article, I essentially auto-drafted a rookie mock using DLF’s mock draft simulator tool. Then, when I was on the clock, I selected the highest remaining player according to the Monday Mock article. No need to get my pesky brain involved; simply select the best player remaining according to early ADP, as if you were setting up a pre-draft ahead of your draft.
I set the draft up as a 12-team, five-round rookie draft, single QB, PPR, without tight end premium scoring. I was randomly assigned the ninth pick. So, with all the formalities set aside- let’s go!
Round One
The draft went fairly chalky until it got to me. I was hoping I could get Zach Evans, but he went fifth. Truthfully, I’m already falling out of love with the famed 2023 class. Consulting McDowell’s Monday Mocks, the best player available is UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet. I don’t hate the pick. I don’t love the pick. It is what it is. If Charbonnet landed with a good team in need of a running back (looking at you, Buffalo, or Philadelphia), I could see his stock skyrocket. Had I not been using the ADP to make the picks, I probably would have taken Jalin Hyatt, as he seems to be gaining steam.
Round Two
As we headed into the second round, I was hoping for one of Hyatt, Kendre Miller, Sean Tucker, or Zay Flowers. Then they went one, two, three, four, and that was that. As my pick was on the clock, I referenced the ADP again and welcomed Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman to the team. If I were doing this on my own and not basing it on ADP, I would’ve probably gone with Illinois running back Chase Brown, who is growing on me as we get closer to the combine.
Round Three
I was thrilled to see how the third round played out. I like Texas running back Roschon Johnson, and he was the man for me based on ADP. In an actual draft, I would probably have tried to move some future picks to get back into this round and grab Maryland’s Rakim Jarrett, who I am a fan of. But no trades here, and we follow the ADP, but Johnson is the first player I could have drafted that I missed out on, which left me a little disappointed.
Round Four
Round four looks to be the Senior Bowl standout round. Several of these players are probably going to see their ADPs start trending upwards following their performances in the Senior Bowl, so you’re not going to be landing them in the fourth anymore. Houston’s Nathaniel Dell, Tulane’s Tyjae Spears, and Michigan State’s Jayden Reed were my targets here. Reed was a steal at 4.10, but there is a world Tyjae Spears climbs into the second by the time rookie drafts actually happen.
Round Five
McDowell’s Monday Mocks only looked at a four-round rookie draft, so I jumped into the deep waters here, adding a fifth round. When I was finally up, my selection was easy, as only one player remained on the board who was taken in the top 48 picks in ADP- Virginia receiver Dontayvion Wicks. I don’t know anything about him, like, at all, but getting a player often selected at 4.11 at pick 5.09 is a value, and I’ll take value when I can get it.
Overall Draft Board
Here’s a look at the entire draft board. Having a mock draft with decision-making taken away from me entirely was nice and relaxing. And honestly, I think I like this group of rookies more than any of my previous mocks, where I made my own decisions. Looking at everything in the big picture, I’m not sure if I would have made many different picks, either.
Don’t dismiss or overlook the early very ADP data. In my last article, I showed how a few of the early ADP trends stuck throughout the process. Those early movers had staying power throughout the process, so keep an eye on them as more ADP data gets released.
Draft Results Versus Monday Mock Results
Here, I added the ADP from the Monday Mock results to the mock draft I completed. The Monday Mock was superflex, so we saw a bump in ADP on all the quarterbacks, but other than that, a few things emerged. The mock draft tool had Princeton’s Andrei Iosivas as a second-round pick, while the actual humans completing mocks didn’t have him included at all. Oft-injured Stanford wide receiver Michael Wilson was a Senior Bowl standout and should be one of the biggest risers of the remaining off-season, and he wasn’t part of either draft- man or machine. Xavier Hutchinson, Chase Brown, Tucker Kraft, and Mohamed Ibrahim all seemed to be overdrafted by the mock draft tool at this point in the process. Conversely, Dalton Kincaid, Tyjae Spears, and Rashee Rice all look to be undervalued at this point versus human drafters.
As the off-season continues, mock drafts get more and more fun to complete as we get more and more data to base our rankings on. The college season wrapped weeks ago. The NFL season is finally complete with the Chiefs’ Super Bowl win over the Eagles. The Shrine Bowl and Senior Bowl are both in the books, and the combine is only ten days away! As players emerge – or fade – during this process, we’ll see shifts in ADP, and one of the best ways to “read the room” is to get involved with as many mocks as possible. Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you here again next week!
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Drake Maye and Kimani Vidal - December 28, 2024
